Predictions

Scipuppy
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Re: Predictions

Postby Scipuppy » May 1st, 2012, 2:09 pm

I don't expect much from my own team, and neither do I decently know any history of Nationals except for what I read.

However, we landed a 68 points at State, winning over second place which had 69.
Has your team gotten to nationals before?
Because they put the teams in alphabetical order by state last year, so we were in front of MD, and we came in 35th... I remember us getting one spot higher than you guys, so you came in 36th last year. If that's helpful at all.

Also, on a different note: Our states scored by doing higher points for higher placings, so we ended up w/ 569 out of 590. I guess that's a score of 21. :o
The next team got... Somewhere around 125. (No, that wasn't a typo, we actually one by over 100 points.)
But we have a kind of pathetic states competition... only 26 teams, including us, and most of them aren't serious at all, because we don't have regionals.
But I'm looking forward to see how we do at nationals this year. I think we have some strong events, and although we have a few weaker ones, I think that overall we have a pretty consistent team this year.
2010 Events (alternate)
Fossils 1st Wright Stuff 2nd WIDI 2nd
2011 Events (alternate)
Optics 1st Junkyard 1st WIDI 1st
2012 Events (reg)
Optics 1st Food Science 2nd KTH 3rd

HiHiimDarthvader
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Re: Predictions

Postby HiHiimDarthvader » May 1st, 2012, 2:17 pm

For michigan B-Meads Mill(1)
Grand Haven(2)
i THINK mEADS mILL IS GOING TO WIN

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Re: Predictions

Postby PacificGoldenPlover » May 2nd, 2012, 11:17 pm

Since Solon won Ohio states, isn't it obvious that Centerville is going to win Nationals?
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Re: Predictions

Postby XJcwolfyX » May 4th, 2012, 4:13 pm

No.
Medal Counter: 73

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PacificGoldenPlover
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Re: Predictions

Postby PacificGoldenPlover » May 4th, 2012, 4:30 pm

Well, that's how it's happened the last three years.
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Re: Predictions

Postby Luo » May 4th, 2012, 4:31 pm

Well, that's how it's happened the last three years.
Well, two actually, but your point is taken :P
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XJcwolfyX
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Re: Predictions

Postby XJcwolfyX » May 4th, 2012, 7:25 pm

What do you guys think of these rankings so far?
http://scioly.org/predictions/index.php?err=0
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physicsphan
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Re: Predictions

Postby physicsphan » May 5th, 2012, 3:46 am

...I guess that's a score of 21. :o
The next team got... Somewhere around 125. (No, that wasn't a typo, we actually one by over 100 points.)
But we have a kind of pathetic states competition... only 26 teams, including us, and most of them aren't serious at all, because we don't have regionals.
But I'm looking forward to see how we do at nationals this year. I think we have some strong events, and although we have a few weaker ones, I think that overall we have a pretty consistent team this year.
I think this points to the problem of comparing one states results to that of another to predict nationals.
1. How many events were used to calculate the score? (If they only ran 20 of the 23 events you score will clearly be lower.)
2. How many of the 23 national events did they run? (If you didn't compete in an event, like Remote Sensing, that will make it harder for you.)
3. Were there regional competitions to eliminate weaker teams?
4. How many teams were at the state competition? (A score of 60 means something very different if there were 45 teams rather than 15 teams.)

A helpful thing to use is how these teams have compared against other national teams at invitationals or at their own state competition (if they send two teams). For example, there is plenty of information out there that shows Solon having been very powerful against other teams who have qualified for nationals this year in states other than Ohio. Also the Ohio State Competition results show that they performed very well in relation to Centerville.

HiHiimDarthvader
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Re: Predictions

Postby HiHiimDarthvader » May 5th, 2012, 10:46 am

What do you guys think of these rankings so far?
http://scioly.org/predictions/index.php?err=0
Actually meads mill best lakeshore at state by almost 30 points

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Re: Predictions

Postby Slarik » May 6th, 2012, 12:34 pm

I don't expect much from my own team,
WHAT??? TRAITOR!!!


jk. I have barely studied since states, just bc I took so much time out of the rest of my school that it needs work; if this was 8th grade, I'd be like, forget school, but I can't do that anymore :( But I have only one real study event, anatomy, and I think (hope) I remember enough from states to do alright. And after the ap tests, I'll have a few days to cram.
Has your team gotten to nationals before?
Because they put the teams in alphabetical order by state last year, so we were in front of MD, and we came in 35th... I remember us getting one spot higher than you guys, so you came in 36th last year. If that's helpful at all.
No, neither of the teams that went from MD are going this year. (They both lost by 1 point, I feel kind of bad for them, although I'm glad we won!)
But we have a kind of pathetic states competition... only 26 teams, including us, and most of them aren't serious at all, because we don't have regionals.
We have regionals, and still pretty much everyone isn't very serious.

But I'm looking forward to see how we do at nationals this year. I think we have some strong events, and although we have a few weaker ones, I think that overall we have a pretty consistent team this year.
I don't know about our team. They're puzzling. But, even if everyone worked their absolute hardest, we'd still be in trouble with age. We have a million 5/6/7th graders... not to say anything bad about them, but if you have a 5th grader that studies like crazy, he'll still have trouble getting through a longer test in a short amount of time, and with as few mistakes as a 8th or 9th grader. With longer tests at nats, I expect the difference to show more in events that are likely to have long tests that we have younger kids on. (even if we have a 8th or 9th grader with them, it will be difficult, esp if the older kid decides that for accuracy's sake, they can't split the test up).

Still, I could not believe how well we did at regionals. It went like, like... amazingly well. (our regionals is pretty much just as competitive as state). Maybe my team will surprise me at nats too. (I'm expecting lower than 30th, and probably lower than 40th) But, you never know, and I have tons of confidence in many members of my team, and a good deal in most (I don't really know some of them) of the rest.
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