Unofficial Rankings C

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby syo_astro » March 21st, 2014, 9:35 pm

taaffeite wrote:" FM hasn't been as strong recently, and LASA hasn't exactly been a powerhouse (they didn't even make nats last year). Ward had the worst luck of the bunch, they won't be there. What does this mean? "

Wouldn't count FM out. There was a new coach last year since their coach retired after making Nationals 14 straight years. They still came in 8th at Nationals with the new coach. And now the coach isn't new. They were strong at states with 10 Gold and 5 silver medals. Seems strong to me.


To clarify further (perhaps someone from FM can correct me), but I think the coach wasn't quite "new". I believe I've seen him wearing a Canisius shirt before, and I'm pretty sure in general he's helped out coach, it's just that because their main coach retired, so he had to step up a bit. Outside that, FM has a good running in general with their students, and I think on the contrary this year was a better showing than last year. NYS especially in general has gotten quite competitive imo in recent years relative to past years, and I would think we'll definitely be sending competitive teams per usual. Even without Ward there, don't think my school and others haven't been pushing them (and them us). It's not like it's just easy to get to nats here :P.

As for Solon, my opinion is that they still can do quite well. IIRC they do mix up their teams at invites quite a lot...I think their overall record stands, and they can do quite well still. Even for Harriton, I still stand by the fact that schools that have a legacy have major advantages, though obviously not the only defining factor. Summary for me is, it'll be a very competitive nats this year.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby taaffeite » March 21st, 2014, 9:59 pm

The team of F-M's former head coach won States for 7 straight years when she was at a different school and another 14 times when she came to F-M. Her old school stopped winning when she left. The current head coach isn't new to SO but is new as the head coach. Last year was the first year without the coach who lead her team to Nationals for 21 years. That is a significant change. The current head coach is excellent, lead the team to Nationals his first year as head coach and is more experienced in the position now. Expect big thing!

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby kentuckyfan1001 » March 22nd, 2014, 12:40 pm

taaffeite wrote:The team of F-M's former head coach won States for 7 straight years when she was at a different school and another 14 times when she came to F-M. Her old school stopped winning when she left. The current head coach isn't new to SO but is new as the head coach. Last year was the first year without the coach who lead her team to Nationals for 21 years. That is a significant change. The current head coach is excellent, lead the team to Nationals his first year as head coach and is more experienced in the position now. Expect big thing!


From what I've seen from FM's scores, FM does medal well in some events, but they bomb others. Examples: 2013 - XPD, Water Quality, Genes. 2012 - Chem Lab, WIDI. These were all sub-40 placings. Generally, medals only tell half of the picture - it's the non-placing events that matter most. If FM wants to get into top 5, it needs to reduced those bomb events down to at least 30s. Also, they get a lot of mid-20s 30s scores that need to be in the teens.

Again, I would love to be proven wrong, but that's what I've seen in terms of track record. In fact, when they did win in 2004, they did so despite bombs in a few events (ex: Bottle Rockets). This is not to take anything away from FM at all. They are an excellent team, and I think that's what they'd need to to take it to the next step. They certainly have the talent to get there.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby taaffeite » March 22nd, 2014, 2:54 pm

Can't disagree Kentucky.Every team has different challenges. F-M has 15 members who stay as a team from start to finish. There aren't a few extras to assign to a couple of events where there is conflict for states while others bow out of States but study for nationals.I wasn't on the A team but my impression is that switching events due to the wacky States schedule sometime means too much catch up for Nationals. But don't underestimate this team!

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Cheese_Muffin_Man » March 22nd, 2014, 3:04 pm

Well, with all of this discussion, how well do you think they can do?

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby taaffeite » March 22nd, 2014, 3:11 pm

The sky's the limit!

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Cheese_Muffin_Man » March 22nd, 2014, 3:35 pm

taaffeite wrote:The sky's the limit!

Very true! But what placement can you see them getting? Earlier, people estimated 6th or 9th. I personally have no idea what they can do yet :)

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby taaffeite » March 22nd, 2014, 4:00 pm

Couldn't possibly speculate cause you can't tell. anything can happen. they'll place higher if they don't spend 15 hours traveling in an old yellow school bus without air and lower if they do. They will do great regardless.

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby PastorisFilius » March 22nd, 2014, 4:02 pm

What about Columbia High School, the other school going from New York? This is their first year going, and they had a great performance at states.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby fozendog » March 22nd, 2014, 4:07 pm

PastorisFilius wrote:What about Columbia High School, the other school going from New York? This is their first year going, and they had a great performance at states.

It will be very hard for them to do well at Nationals, not because of their ability, but simply because it is their first time going. First year nats. team don't generally do as well as expected...
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby syo_astro » March 22nd, 2014, 4:08 pm

PastorisFilius wrote:What about Columbia High School, the other school going from New York? This is their first year going, and they had a great performance at states.

Oo, I see you're from NY. Are you from Columbia? Good job for sure to them...no offense, but I feel like just how regs/invites are different from states, nats is probably different from our states. I think Columbia has gone before? But teams that haven't gone consecutive years seem to face a bit of trouble getting into the top 10 at least (see Penncrest, not saying they're bad, obviously they are still quite good to get top 15). Top 20 may still be possible all considered, but that depends on how many other competitive teams there are (as we see, there's some very competitive ones stretching out of the top 10 for sure like Camas and whatnot). Time shall tell per usual.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby PastorisFilius » March 22nd, 2014, 4:10 pm

True, it will definitely be difficult for them, but I could see at least 20th. I'm not from Columbia, anyway, but I'd love to hear what they think.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby zyzzyva980 » March 22nd, 2014, 5:10 pm

It all depends on the attitude that Columbia takes. Are they happy with just making it there, meaning they'll just coast to the finish line? Or do they legitimately want to try to pick up where Ward left off, and work for a top-10 finish? I think typically when schools make it the first time, it's the former, especially given that this national tournament is in more of a rewarding place (Orlando) than say, Wright State or next year's UW. But that doesn't mean a team can't exceed expectations and do well their first time at the dance, either. (Metaphorically speaking, since I anticipate most people in SO don't do very well at dances)
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby taaffeite » March 22nd, 2014, 5:51 pm

Not necessarily true that teams don't do well at their first Nationals at least from NY. NY teams at their 1st Nationals: CNS (6), Webster (8). No telling.

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby kentuckyfan1001 » March 23rd, 2014, 6:29 pm

taaffeite wrote:Not necessarily true that teams don't do well at their first Nationals at least from NY. NY teams at their 1st Nationals: CNS (6), Webster (8). No telling.


I think this is definitely true - the two years Mentor has made it out of Ohio, they've placed 5th and 7th respectively, so it's definitely possible. Plus, Solon MS's first year they won (2008) they didn't even make to nats the year before. Anything goes.

What I see as a larger barrier, though, is the fact that NYS has 25 events as opposed to three. Now you might think having fewer events means it'll be easier for Columbia, but it also means there's a small amount of less time these teams can focus on other events.

Furthermore, a lot of states (like Ohio) recently have made their state schedule the nats schedule. This really helps other teams out from those states, and I don't think NY does that. Correct me if I'm wrong though.

Ultimately, like syo and other previous posters have said, I think it will be difficult simply because nats is different. I predict anywhere in the teens for Columbia, because historical placings (see: Bayard Rustin in 2012 and Palo Alto in 2013) show that new teams from strong states do well, but not enough to get top 10.
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