Disease Detectives B/C Question Marathon

Test your knowledge of various Science Olympiad events
Flavorflav
Member
Member
Posts: 1358
Joined: February 5th, 2006, 7:06 am
Division: Grad
State: NY

Re: Disease Detectives B/C Question Marathon

Postby Flavorflav » November 25th, 2013, 5:35 am

Okay, how about this: under what circumstances would my inferring incidence from prevalence in the above question not be legitimate?

Crazy Puny Man
Member
Member
Posts: 265
Joined: May 25th, 2013, 6:25 pm
Division: Grad
State: IN

Re: Disease Detectives B/C Question Marathon

Postby Crazy Puny Man » November 26th, 2013, 2:35 pm

Okay, how about this: under what circumstances would my inferring incidence from prevalence in the above question not be legitimate?
When the duration of the disease is relatively short, for, say, the flu.

Flavorflav
Member
Member
Posts: 1358
Joined: February 5th, 2006, 7:06 am
Division: Grad
State: NY

Re: Disease Detectives B/C Question Marathon

Postby Flavorflav » November 27th, 2013, 5:27 am

Okay, how about this: under what circumstances would my inferring incidence from prevalence in the above question not be legitimate?
When the duration of the disease is relatively short, for, say, the flu.
While that is true, it is not what I was looking for (as I said, "in the above question"). Even for life-long conditions, sometimes you cannot infer age-related incidence from age-specific prevalence. Hint: Polio would be a good example for what I am talking about.

Crazy Puny Man
Member
Member
Posts: 265
Joined: May 25th, 2013, 6:25 pm
Division: Grad
State: IN

Re: Disease Detectives B/C Question Marathon

Postby Crazy Puny Man » November 27th, 2013, 8:18 pm

Woops...my bad... :oops:

If the case fatality rate is relatively high?

Flavorflav
Member
Member
Posts: 1358
Joined: February 5th, 2006, 7:06 am
Division: Grad
State: NY

Re: Disease Detectives B/C Question Marathon

Postby Flavorflav » November 28th, 2013, 7:24 am

Not your bad - it was a valid answer, just not the one I was looking for. As for your current guess, a high case fatality rate would actually mean that the age effect is even bigger, since the dead youngsters don't show up in the prevalence statistics for older folks. Let me put it this way: how many people do you know with polio?

Crazy Puny Man
Member
Member
Posts: 265
Joined: May 25th, 2013, 6:25 pm
Division: Grad
State: IN

Re: Disease Detectives B/C Question Marathon

Postby Crazy Puny Man » November 28th, 2013, 9:43 am

Not your bad - it was a valid answer, just not the one I was looking for. As for your current guess, a high case fatality rate would actually mean that the age effect is even bigger, since the dead youngsters don't show up in the prevalence statistics for older folks. Let me put it this way: how many people do you know with polio?
Could the deaths be more spread out, i.e. with more of the older people dying? Or would a high case fatality imply that more young people die than old people?

As for your question...none?

Flavorflav
Member
Member
Posts: 1358
Joined: February 5th, 2006, 7:06 am
Division: Grad
State: NY

Re: Disease Detectives B/C Question Marathon

Postby Flavorflav » November 28th, 2013, 8:08 pm

Hmm. I can't think of a disease that you can get diagnosed with when young, has a high case fatality rate, but doesn't kill you until you are older. If there was such a thing then the prevalence among old people would be too low, as the dead are not counted. I'm thinking of something much simpler, though. What would the breakdown of polio look like, stratified by age?

Crazy Puny Man
Member
Member
Posts: 265
Joined: May 25th, 2013, 6:25 pm
Division: Grad
State: IN

Re: Disease Detectives B/C Question Marathon

Postby Crazy Puny Man » November 28th, 2013, 8:11 pm

Hmm. I can't think of a disease that you can get diagnosed with when young, has a high case fatality rate, but doesn't kill you until you are older. If there was such a thing then the prevalence among old people would be too low, as the dead are not counted. I'm thinking of something much simpler, though. What would the breakdown of polio look like, stratified by age?
Do you have to be young when diagnosed? Or is that the most common age at which to be diagnosed?

Crap

Um...younger age groups would have a higher prevalence?

Flavorflav
Member
Member
Posts: 1358
Joined: February 5th, 2006, 7:06 am
Division: Grad
State: NY

Re: Disease Detectives B/C Question Marathon

Postby Flavorflav » November 29th, 2013, 5:12 am

To clarify, I was merely trying to draw out the implications of your guess about case fatality rate.

If polio was common among younger people, wouldn't you know someone who had it?

Crazy Puny Man
Member
Member
Posts: 265
Joined: May 25th, 2013, 6:25 pm
Division: Grad
State: IN

Re: Disease Detectives B/C Question Marathon

Postby Crazy Puny Man » November 29th, 2013, 8:12 am

To clarify, I was merely trying to draw out the implications of your guess about case fatality rate.

If polio was common among younger people, wouldn't you know someone who had it?
Yes...?

You mean that the prevalence in each age group would be close to zero?


Return to “2014 Question Marathons”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest