Pennsylvania 2015

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EastStroudsburg13
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Re: Pennsylvania 2015

Post by EastStroudsburg13 »

Quick reminder to enter the prediction contest/poll! Entries will be open all the way until the day of competition!

Link to B Poll
Link to C Poll


Also, keep in mind that if you put in a troll entry (don't worry, I can tell), I'm just going to delete it. It takes me all of two clicks, so it doesn't take up that much of my time, so why waste your time doing it? :roll:

Now on to my personal predictions (since some of you have been wondering)!

Division B:
1. Shady Side - I think it's going to be really close (margin of 10 points or less), but given the choice, I'm going to go with the more proven team. Nothing against Springhouse, but the defending champ keeps the crown until proven otherwise.
2. Springhouse - But the new challenger is going to put up a heckuva fight. These two are by far the class of PA B, and near locks to finish 1-2. Another team could possibly break in, but it would take a tremendous amount of effort, and the margin is just too wide. At the end of the day, the main question is not who will be top 2, but who will win the top spot.
3. Bala Cynwyd - Now we get to the interesting part! The best of the rest is going to be a team that limits mistakes, and BC has been around for quite a while, so they know the drill. The experience is going to come in really handy, as I expect them to come out on top of the remaining teams. Probably not enough firepower to get close to SSA/SMS, but definitely good enough for a solid third.
4. Devon Prep - This team, if it keeps improving, could end up being a nationals contender in the future, but they're still a year or two away. Fourth, however, is very doable. They could also very realistically get third if they have a very good showing, as I believe their ceiling is higher than BC's. They're still relatively new to the scene, though, so their final place has more variance than BC or the next team.
5. Welsh Valley - It's no surprise that Welsh Valley is in here. As one of the most consistent teams in the state, they've gotten between 5th and 9th every year since 2008. There is a chance a team will surprise and drop WV a place or two, but expect them to be around here.
6. Strath Haven - Just two years ago, Strath finished with 50 points at regionals. Graduation has taken a major toll on this former national contender. However, they're not a bad team by any means, and should place in the top 10, like they usually did in the mid-2000s.
7. Park Forest - Perennially underrated team that always finishes somewhere in the top 10. Maybe they don't get as much recognition since they compete in a lesser-known region, and they usually perform better at states than regionals, but they've place in the top 10 for four straight years, and there's no reason to think that streak will end this year (especially since they performed slightly better at regionals this year)
8. Kutztown - They jumped all the way up to 5th last year from 14th in 2013, but their true strength this year is probably somewhere in the middle. CE is a strong region; I expect both Kutztown and Whitehall-Coplay to do well. The only thing keeping WC from this list is that I am cautious about their absence from the state finals last year. They're on the doorstep.
9. Quaker Valley - Solid team which doesn't seem to have lost steam from last year. It's always tough being in Shady Side's region, so taking 2nd is no small feat. Rising team Bedford is also a contender, but given QV's top 10 place last year, I prefer their pedigree.
10. Eagle View - Of the rising teams in the state, Eagle View might be improving the most consistently. Last year, in their first appearance at states since 2006, they managed a solid 14th, and followed that up with a regional win. I'm not sure if they attended any invites, but I'm not betting against them. There's not much further to improve from 14th without cracking the top 10.

Honorable mention: Bedford, Whitehall-Coplay, Springton Lake, Wyoming Area

Division C:
1. Harriton – They may have lost their 16-year winning streak, but they’ve still qualified for nationals 22 years in a row. I don’t know about you, but I’m not betting against them retaking the top spot.
2. Conestoga – Stoga’s been very good for a while now, making it slightly surprising that they’ve never qualified for nationals. They’ve had several close calls, including missing 2nd place by one point in 2013, and it just feels like they’re due to break through that barrier.
3. Bayard Rustin – The team that broke the Harriton/Penncrest stronghold in 2012 is looking like it has its strongest team since then. The task of overtaking a motivated Stoga team, and holding off the teams below them, will be difficult though. It’s not out of the question, so don’t count them out.
4. Penncrest - They last finished below 3rd a long, long time ago, but the state is stronger now, and this team very nearly placed 6th at regionals. However, expecting them to drop below 4th is a little much. An improvement between regionals and states is expected.
5. Strath Haven – This is a really good team that would likely win any other region, but they happen to be in the toughest in the state, and one of the toughest in the country. Unfortunately for them, the lead contenders always seem to be one step ahead of them. Not that 5th is bad in a tough state like PA.
6. Shady Side – Since the fall of Athens, the gap between the top 5 teams in the SE region and the rest of the state has only grown. This is the team with the best chance of breaking in. They have tons of experience from the Division B version, giving them the upside to take on the heavyweights. However, the strength of those teams can’t be discounted; it is incredible. It doesn’t feel like they’re ready to get top 5 yet. Next year, though: watch out.
7. Northwestern Lehigh – They burst onto the scene last year with a string of impressive invitational places, and should be in the mix again this year. It’s probably a bit much to expect them to challenge Strath or Penncrest, but top 10 is absolutely possible (and probable).
8. North Pocono – A slight bit of homerism here, as Perkiomen Valley has had a stranglehold on 8th place for three years running now and would be the safe pick. But North Pocono’s a rising team, and after breaking into the top 10 last year, is looking to rise higher, and that might be enough to overtake PV.
9. Perkiomen Valley – But if they do fall, it won’t be very far. This is a very safe pick for the top 10, since they’ve been top 10 every year since moving to the Central East region, and always come out strong and consistent.
10. Garnet Valley – Last year was the first in a while that the Southeast region only put 5 teams in the top 10 for C Division (2009 to be precise). Garnet Valley has improved pretty steadily since qualifying in 2013, though, and after nearly beating Penncrest, seems poised to contend for the 10th spot.

Honorable mention: Stroudsburg, Lower Merion, Hershey, Fleetwood
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Re: Pennsylvania 2015

Post by schist99centz »

I think SSA's Div C is going to beat Strath Haven's C Team
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Re: Pennsylvania 2015

Post by havenguy »

schist99centz wrote:I think SSA's Div C is going to beat Strath Haven's C Team
That wouldn't surprise me. I know the strength in Shady Side's team based off their b division teams the last few years. It's the same reason that our high school team has been improving.

That being said, the state competition is incredibly unpredictable. The truth is, with some luck, any of the top 6 teams could make nats, although Harriton, Rustin, Penncrest, and Conestoga are extremely hard to beat. So let's just see what happens on the day of the competition ;).
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Re: Pennsylvania 2015

Post by EastStroudsburg13 »

Current poll rankings:

Division B (11 votes)
1. Springhouse (104 points, 6 first place votes)
2. Shady Side (103, 5)
3. Bala Cynwyd (86)
4. Welsh Valley (70)
5. Devon Prep (63)
6. Strath Haven (45)
7. Quaker Valley (28)
8. Kutztown (20)
9. Springton Lake (16)
10. Allen (12)

Also receiving votes: Whitehall-Coplay (11), Park Forest (10), Wyoming Area (8), Bedford (7), Eagle View (6), Franklin Regional (6), Wayne Highlands (3), Spring Valley (2), Hershey (1), J.T. Lambert (1)

Division C (17 votes)
1. Harriton (169, 16)
2. Conestoga (147)
3. Bayard Rustin (131, 1)
4. Penncrest (115)
5. Strath Haven (84, 16 total votes)
6. Shady Side (84, 15 total votes)
7. Northwestern Lehigh (42)
8. Garnet Valley (39)
9. North Pocono (20)
10. Hershey (19)

Also receiving votes: Lower Merion (17), Perkiomen Valley (15), State College (9), NW PA Collegiate Academy (6), Wilmington (6), Spring Grove (6), Quaker Valley (6), Parkland (5), Kutztown (3), Stroudsburg (3), Seneca (3), Elizabethtown (2), Red Land (2), Fleetwood (1), Pittsburgh Allderdice (1)

Here are the links if you still want to submit one, or if you want to edit your entry (just enter one with the same nick and I will replace it for you)

Link to B Poll
Link to C Poll
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Re: Pennsylvania 2015

Post by ckssv07 »

I'm not sure why but I have a gut feeling that things are going to get really shaken up this year, as in I'll be pretty shocked if both Harriton and Conestoga make it. It's just a feeling.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2015

Post by schist99centz »

ckssv07 wrote:I'm not sure why but I have a gut feeling that things are going to get really shaken up this year, as in I'll be pretty shocked if both Harriton and Conestoga make it. It's just a feeling.
Do you think Harriton will win states? And who do you think can top Conestoga?
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Re: Pennsylvania 2015

Post by ckssv07 »

schist99centz wrote:
ckssv07 wrote:I'm not sure why but I have a gut feeling that things are going to get really shaken up this year, as in I'll be pretty shocked if both Harriton and Conestoga make it. It's just a feeling.
Do you think Harriton will win states? And who do you think can top Conestoga?
So to set a base, how I see it, Rustin is most likely getting third.
Here are some possible scenarios that I think could happen.
Harriton-Stoga-Rustin-Strath-Penncrest-SSA
Harriton-Stoga-Rustin-SSA-Penncresr-Strath
I think it's possible but I just don't feel that good about either of those
Penncrest-Stoga-Harriton-SSA/Strath-Rustin
Penncrest-Harriton-Rustin-Stoga-SSA-Strath
Harriton-SSA-Rustin-Stoga-Penncrest-Strath

There's room for some distortion near the tail end but basically if Penncrest makes it theyre going to get first. If SSA, Strath or Rustin make it, Harriton will win, and Stoga will be 4th.
And I honestly think that SSA will pop the SE bubble, but they could just as easily get absolutely blown out.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2015

Post by EastStroudsburg13 »

I really don't think Penncrest will get first. It would take an absolutely spectacular turnaround to make up that much ground past all of the other teams.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2015

Post by RMA »

East, is it possible for me to see the pa div b polling results??

ugh only 5 days!!
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Re: Pennsylvania 2015

Post by ckssv07 »

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:I really don't think Penncrest will get first. It would take an absolutely spectacular turnaround to make up that much ground past all of the other teams.
Well that's partially what my reasoning has to do with, but honestly I don't either, I was just saying that if they make it to nats it will be in first. Penncrest was quite a large margin behind the other SE teams at Regionals so if they make a run hard enough to be able to secure a nationals bid, they would've most likely ran hard enough to take first. The amount of effort to come from 5th to second isn't going to be much less than 5th to first, and if your grinding that much, the difference in the amount of work isn't really going to be that noticeable.
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