Well, this may just be the exact reason people aren't putting a PA team other than Harriton in their top 10 prediction; it's extremely difficult to predict which teams will make it to nats from PA (well, I guess most people (including myself) have money on Harriton, but that's only half of it).ckssv07 wrote:Just for you guys to think about.
I see a lot of people putting Harriton near the top which I think is perfectly accurate, but I don't see anyone put another team from PA in anyone's top 10. This year we have 6-7 extremely strong teams competing for the 2 nationals spots, and my feeling is that generally both teams who go from PA tend to place in the top 10, but with no one being guaranteed a spot this year, those top 6 teams are all most likely driving extremely hard to secure their spot. I feel that this inevitably creates a situation where the 2 teams who make it out will be even better than normal, which honestly is a pretty scary thought. Also, for some idea on how competitive this is, Penncrest got 5th at their regionals, while Bayard Rustin got third at regionals, while also winning mentor just a few weeks before, beating Fayetville and Solon.
Also, for 9 out of the past 10 years, the two teams going to nationals from PA has been Harriton and Penncrest. Penncrest getting 5th at regionals raises doubts on their chances at nationals, and if they are not to qualify, that leaves the second place spot to be taken by a team that has not attended nationals before (except for Bayard Rustin, but that was still several years ago). And when it comes to a break-out team at nationals, they face barriers preventing them from reaching the top 10. I'd imagine the post-state lull would kick in very strongly and staying extremely motivated would be hard for some people. Additionally, a team that attended nats last year would have an understanding of what some of the tests would probably look like. These two things combined really hold a break-out team back, making it much more unlikely (but not impossible) for them to place in the top 10.