Fermi Questions C

[Justin72835]

Determine the volume of water the average American will use for bathing throughout their whole life divided by the volume of the ocean.

Which ocean?

My bad, I meant all of Earth's oceans combined.

[Adi1008]

Determine the volume of water the average American will use for bathing throughout their whole life divided by the volume of the ocean.

Which ocean?

My bad, I meant all of Earth's oceans combined.

Coolbeans ty

My attempt (Click to Show Hidden Text)

-Doing some sketchy math I estimate the volume of all the oceans on Earth to be about e18 L
-I know from hydrogeology that the average bathtub holds about 140 L
-I'll assume that people take a bath (as opposed to showers) once a week(?)
-People live about 80 years which is about 4200 weeks.
-140*4200; x = 140, 4200 = 30x; 30x^2; 30*19600; 600000 L in one's lifetime; estimate is e6 for water usage in lifetime in liters
[b]Fermi Answer: -12[/b]

Actual answer (Click to Show Hidden Text)

-The actual volume of all the oceans is 1.347e21 L. rip
-The average volume of a bathtub is 36 gallons, which is about 136 L
-Average life expectancy for an American is 78.94 years.
-I wasn't able to find out how often Americans bathe as opposed to taking showers. I'll go with my assumption that people take a bath (as opposed to a shower) once a week
-Therefore, the total water usage is about 5.6e5 => e6 L
[b]Fermi Answer: -15[/b]

How many burgers were sold in America since the Model T was invented?

[Justin72835]

Attempt (Click to Show Hidden Text)

-The Model T was introduced a little more than a century ago, so I'm going to round to 100 years. 
-I'm going to assume that burgers were around at the time of the Model T too.
-I'm guessing that the average American eats at least one burger a week?
-The average population of America throughout the last 100 years is probably around 300 million people (I think the population growth has stagnated in the last few decades).

3e8 people * 1 burger/week * 52 weeks/year * 100 years = 1.56e12
 
[b]Fermi Answer: 12[/b]

Answer (Click to Show Hidden Text)

-The average American consumes 3 burgers each week according to PBS. However, I don't think this value accounts for statistics from over a couple decades ago. Also, I don't think that Americans consumed as many burgers back then as they do now. Because of that, I'm going to adjust by using 2 burgers each week.
-It turns out that the average population of America throughout the last 100 years is about 180 million.
-The Model T was invented in 1908, so 109 years ago

1.8e8 people * 2 burger/week * 52 weeks/year * 109 years = 2e12

[b]Fermi Answer: 12[/b]

How many text messages have been sent since the release of the first iPhone?

[NeilMehta]

Attempt (Click to Show Hidden Text)

-The Model T was introduced a little more than a century ago, so I'm going to round to 100 years. 
-I'm going to assume that burgers were around at the time of the Model T too.
-I'm guessing that the average American eats at least one burger a week?
-The average population of America throughout the last 100 years is probably around 300 million people (I think the population growth has stagnated in the last few decades).

3e8 people * 1 burger/week * 52 weeks/year * 100 years = 1.56e12
 
[b]Fermi Answer: 12[/b]

Answer (Click to Show Hidden Text)

-The average American consumes 3 burgers each week according to PBS. However, I don't think this value accounts for statistics from over a couple decades ago. Also, I don't think that Americans consumed as many burgers back then as they do now. Because of that, I'm going to adjust by using 2 burgers each week.
-It turns out that the average population of America throughout the last 100 years is about 180 million.
-The Model T was invented in 1908, so 109 years ago

1.8e8 people * 2 burger/week * 52 weeks/year * 109 years = 2e12

[b]Fermi Answer: 12[/b]

How many text messages have been sent since the release of the first iPhone?

Attempt (Click to Show Hidden Text)

I read at one point that E9 messages are sent daily or something along the lines of that
iPhone was released E1 years ago
E2 days in a year
Final answer: E12

solution (Click to Show Hidden Text)

I can't find an answer online, but from other information it looks like it's along the lines of e13-e14

What is the collective volume of all of the sci-o medals ever awarded (not including ribbons)?

[Unome]

What is the collective volume of all of the sci-o medals ever awarded (not including ribbons)?

Attempt (Click to Show Hidden Text)

- There are roughly 5E2 tournaments a year (accounting for multiple divisions). Each tournament probably medals to an average of four, so that's around 2E2 medals. E5 medals per year.
- Obviously there were less tournaments the farther back one goes, so going back 1.5E1 years with this number of tournaments should suffice - there were likely less than 30 invitationals nationwide at 15 years back. This gives 1.5E6.
- Medal volume varies, but I'd estimate 0.5 cm x 6 cm x 6 cm on average (since regional and invitational medals would be the most common), which makes 1.8E1 mL (btw you didn't specify units).
Fermi Answer: 7

Actual Answer (Click to Show Hidden Text)

There's so much data I'd have to collect here, this would be very difficult to estimate (though I think I could manage with enough research). The most important things to know, however, is the data on old-style medals - the years they were around, as well as their volume (I believe they are somewhat thinner). The number of tournaments and the medals awarded in each year can be reasonably estimated without too much uncertainty. If anyone has this info, I can update this post with a calculation of the actual answer.

Continuing the scioly theme: how many total Fermi Questions tests have been written for Science Olympiad tournaments in the 21st century?

[NeilMehta]

What is the collective volume of all of the sci-o medals ever awarded (not including ribbons)?

Attempt (Click to Show Hidden Text)

- There are roughly 5E2 tournaments a year (accounting for multiple divisions). Each tournament probably medals to an average of four, so that's around 2E2 medals. E5 medals per year.
- Obviously there were less tournaments the farther back one goes, so going back 1.5E1 years with this number of tournaments should suffice - there were likely less than 30 invitationals nationwide at 15 years back. This gives 1.5E6.
- Medal volume varies, but I'd estimate 0.5 cm x 6 cm x 6 cm on average (since regional and invitational medals would be the most common), which makes 1.8E1 mL (btw you didn't specify units).
Fermi Answer: 7

Actual Answer (Click to Show Hidden Text)

There's so much data I'd have to collect here, this would be very difficult to estimate (though I think I could manage with enough research). The most important things to know, however, is the data on old-style medals - the years they were around, as well as their volume (I believe they are somewhat thinner). The number of tournaments and the medals awarded in each year can be reasonably estimated without too much uncertainty. If anyone has this info, I can update this post with a calculation of the actual answer.

Continuing the scioly theme: how many total Fermi Questions tests have been written for Science Olympiad tournaments in the 21st century?

Based on your estimate, I'd say there's E3 tests, considering the event was run for two years again, there isn't really a clear solution

Next question: what is the total number of posts on the Scioly.org forums?

[Adi1008]

Next question: what is the total number of posts on the Scioly.org forums?

My attempt (Click to Show Hidden Text)

Every year there's about e4 posts (excluding general chat). scioly.org has been a thing for about 20 years, so that's about 2e5 posts total. I know general chat has around 1.5e5 total posts. My estimate is about 3.5e5 total posts. Fermi Answer of [b]5[/b]

Actual answer (Click to Show Hidden Text)

Adding stuff up:
2017: 11531
2016: 9496
2015: 9682
2014: 10301
2013: 14041
2012: 14952
2011: 22429
2010: 16273
2009: 21894
2001-2008: The [url=https://scioly.org/wiki/index.php/Scioly.org_History]Scioly.org history wiki[/url] says 36163
General Chat: 136330
Administrative: 2046

[b]Total: 305,138 posts
Fermi Answer: 5[/b]

How many Planck lengths would New Horizons travel in the time it takes for our Solar System to make one orbit around the center of the Milky Way?

[NeilMehta]

Next question: what is the total number of posts on the Scioly.org forums?

My attempt (Click to Show Hidden Text)

Every year there's about e4 posts (excluding general chat). scioly.org has been a thing for about 20 years, so that's about 2e5 posts total. I know general chat has around 1.5e5 total posts. My estimate is about 3.5e5 total posts. Fermi Answer of [b]5[/b]

Actual answer (Click to Show Hidden Text)

Adding stuff up:
2017: 11531
2016: 9496
2015: 9682
2014: 10301
2013: 14041
2012: 14952
2011: 22429
2010: 16273
2009: 21894
2001-2008: The [url=https://scioly.org/wiki/index.php/Scioly.org_History]Scioly.org history wiki[/url] says 36163
General Chat: 136330
Administrative: 2046

[b]Total: 305,138 posts
Fermi Answer: 5[/b]

How far, in Planck lengths, would New Horizons travel in the time it takes for our Solar System to make one orbit around the center of the Milky Way?

There's a post count at the bottom of the main page

[Unome]

Next question: what is the total number of posts on the Scioly.org forums?

My attempt (Click to Show Hidden Text)

Every year there's about e4 posts (excluding general chat). scioly.org has been a thing for about 20 years, so that's about 2e5 posts total. I know general chat has around 1.5e5 total posts. My estimate is about 3.5e5 total posts. Fermi Answer of [b]5[/b]

Actual answer (Click to Show Hidden Text)

Adding stuff up:
2017: 11531
2016: 9496
2015: 9682
2014: 10301
2013: 14041
2012: 14952
2011: 22429
2010: 16273
2009: 21894
2001-2008: The [url=https://scioly.org/wiki/index.php/Scioly.org_History]Scioly.org history wiki[/url] says 36163
General Chat: 136330
Administrative: 2046

[b]Total: 305,138 posts
Fermi Answer: 5[/b]

How far, in Planck lengths, would New Horizons travel in the time it takes for our Solar System to make one orbit around the center of the Milky Way?

There's a post count at the bottom of the main page

By the way, the OBB archive has 177,009 posts, according to the Internet Archive (the Scioly.org History wiki page definitely has some incorrect information). You also forgot to include the posts from here, though I doubt those would change the answer.

[Unome]

Current question, since we need some activity:

How far, in Planck lengths, would New Horizons travel in the time it takes for our Solar System to make one orbit around the center of the Milky Way?