Georgia 2017

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Unome
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Re: Georgia 2017

Post by Unome »

Hmm, forgot edits aren't working. Here are my predictions:


1. Dodgen – Despite losing to FSA at regionals, they’ve led the rest of the teams by quite a bit throughout the invitational season, and have the history to keep it up. However, it’s entirely plausible for the top three to finish in any order.
2. Fulton Science Academy – They were behind Vickery Creek rather consistently at invitationals, but seem to have stepped it up after Wright State, beating Dodgen on a tiebreaker at regionals, so they should have a good shot at qualifying again (which, despite six previous qualifications, would make this the longest qualifying streak in their history).
3. Vickery Creek – Although they’ve been very strong this year, the Nationals barrier is hard to break; they were right behind FSA all of last year, but ended up losing to them by over 50 points at state. However, they’ve been third place for the last three years and are probably hungry for a chance at nationals. Should be closer than last year.
4. Oconee County – although they don’t go to any invitationals, they did very well at regionals, finishing in the top three in 19 events against Vickery Creek. They should have a good chance at matching last year’s 4th place finish.
5. South Forsyth – I seem to be in disagreement with many others on this one. With strong finishes at invitationals throughout the year, this is the only team that’s come close to beating any of the Southeast powerhouses’ B teams. They took first and second at regionals while split, and have led the other contenders on this list during the season, so I think they’re the most likely team to take the final plaque.
6. Crews – Although they weren’t as visible as South Forsyth, Crews finished in third at regionals with a good score of 138, around 40 points better than last year (when they finished 7th at state). Although they didn’t beat either FSA or Dodgen’s B teams, consider that in 2014 Eagles Home Educators nearly lost to FSA’s C team at regionals (they won on a tie), and still finished 7th at state.
7. River Trail – River Trail seems to have recovered from last year’s fall, finishing first at regionals again, with their B team beating their A team in several events. While they’re not quite as good as their peak 2014 and 2015 teams, they should manage to top last year’s 11th place finish. I would not quite be willing to put them above Crews, however, solely on the basis that Crews is a Brookwood feeder and fast riser. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if River Trail finished ahead.
8. Five Forks – While everyone quibbles over the order of 5th–7th, predicting Five Forks in 8th seems to be very common. The other Brookwood feeder is a strong team, capping off another regional win after a rapid rise last year. Unfortunately we don’t have scores from Coweta County regionals, so they could be a lot better (or worse) than we think.
9. Hightower Trail – They finished just behind River Trail at regionals, but I’m ranking them here because River Trail had strong showings on their B team. They did well at Dodgen, though unfortunately I never finished collating the raw scores from both flights so I could compare them to top Southeast teams and other contenders like South Forsyth, so it’s hard to tell exactly where they stand.
10. Kittredge Magnet – Although they fell back rather drastically at regionals (finishing in 4th), they’ve been very consistent over the last few years (or at least as long as I’ve been around they’ve been in contention for top 5 at state; not sure about before that. RFScoach may know more). Note that Kittredge’s team is entirely composed of sixth graders, so they likely start out weaker than most teams. If they haven’t lost a coach, I doubt they’ll fall back too far.

Honorable Mentions: Bennett’s Mill, Dickerson, Chamblee

(thank you East and John for being among the few people to put in reasonable predictions)

Good luck to all of the teams! As of now it looks like I'll be there, so yay live medal recordings! (assuming WiFi holds out)
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Re: Georgia 2017

Post by John Richardsim »

Unome wrote:
(thank you East and John for being among the few people to put in reasonable predictions)
Oh...gotta be honest, I just coped my predictions from your most recent post of the poll standings and just assumed them to be reasonable...
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Re: Georgia 2017

Post by Unome »

Results!

1. Dodgen
2. Fulton Science Academy
3. Vickery Creek
4. Chamblee
5. River Trail
6. South Forsyth
7. Crews
8. Oconee County

(scores coming soon)
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Re: Georgia 2017

Post by anagene »

Congratulations to Dodgen and FSA. Quite proud of FSA's current streak of getting to Nationals. Now, if only my Div C team makes it too!
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Re: Georgia 2017

Post by bonysteak »

John Richardsim wrote:
Unome wrote:
(thank you East and John for being among the few people to put in reasonable predictions)
Oh...gotta be honest, I just coped my predictions from your most recent post of the poll standings and just assumed them to be reasonable...
hay i tried
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Re: Georgia 2017

Post by Unome »

Final Georgia B Results:

1. Dodgen (79)
2. Fulton Science Academy (116)
3. Vickery Creek (123)
4. Chamblee (222)
5. River Trail (264)
6. South Forsyth (276)
7. Crews (293)
8. Oconee County (299)
9. Eighth Street (317)
10. Hightower Trail (322)

Full Scores

- They didn't do a points cutoff this year (in past years usually the bottom half or bottom third in an event were all given the same rank), which probably messed with our predictions (though I prefer this way considering the tiny point margins between teams that occurred under the cutoff; it became impossible to tell how good a team really was when 10 points could drop a team five ranks or more).
- Quite a larger margin than I would have expected; I thought FSA and Vickery Creek would be in the 80s and 90s (even if I apply the cutoff, they're both over 100).
- Chamblee pretty much destroyed our predictions; I'm pretty sure they didn't get any votes at all. Not sure where their performance here came from, but it was certainly fun to see. Quite a return from their fall in the years prior to 2016.
- River Trail, South Forsyth, and Crews pretty much finished where I expected (though River Trail did better than I would have thought).
- Oconee County didn't do so well; I guess the lack of invitationals must be a challenge (plus not knowing how they stack up this year = not much motivation)
- Eighth Street did really well this year, especially considering they lost at regionals to Gatewood, who placed 29th (last place).
- Taylor Road and McCleskey did especially well considering their performance at regionals (and considering how close McCleskey was to not qualifying).
- Kittredge in 21st. Guess I should have just picked Dickerson for 10th :/
- Flat Rock has fallen rather far from finishing in 6th two years ago.

This weekend; Division C state. The tournament director said WiFi may not work in the auditorium; if it does, awards display here starting at 4 PM
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Re: Georgia 2017

Post by rfscoach »

Unome wrote:Final Georgia B Results:

1. Dodgen (79)
2. Fulton Science Academy (116)
3. Vickery Creek (123)
4. Chamblee (222)
5. River Trail (264)
6. South Forsyth (276)
7. Crews (293)
8. Oconee County (299)
9. Eighth Street (317)
10. Hightower Trail (322)

Full Scores

- They didn't do a points cutoff this year (in past years usually the bottom half or bottom third in an event were all given the same rank), which probably messed with our predictions (though I prefer this way considering the tiny point margins between teams that occurred under the cutoff; it became impossible to tell how good a team really was when 10 points could drop a team five ranks or more).
- Quite a larger margin than I would have expected; I thought FSA and Vickery Creek would be in the 80s and 90s (even if I apply the cutoff, they're both over 100).
- Chamblee pretty much destroyed our predictions; I'm pretty sure they didn't get any votes at all. Not sure where their performance here came from, but it was certainly fun to see. Quite a return from their fall in the years prior to 2016.
- River Trail, South Forsyth, and Crews pretty much finished where I expected (though River Trail did better than I would have thought).
- Oconee County didn't do so well; I guess the lack of invitationals must be a challenge (plus not knowing how they stack up this year = not much motivation)
- Eighth Street did really well this year, especially considering they lost at regionals to Gatewood, who placed 29th (last place).
- Taylor Road and McCleskey did especially well considering their performance at regionals (and considering how close McCleskey was to not qualifying).
- Kittredge in 21st. Guess I should have just picked Dickerson for 10th :/
- Flat Rock has fallen rather far from finishing in 6th two years ago.

This weekend; Division C state. The tournament director said WiFi may not work in the auditorium; if it does, awards display here starting at 4 PM
Do you really think you will have time for a live award feed while going up to receive your endless medals??
I am the Lorax. I speak for the trees. I speak for the trees, for the trees have no tongues.
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Re: Georgia 2017

Post by Unome »

rfscoach wrote:
Unome wrote:Final Georgia B Results:

1. Dodgen (79)
2. Fulton Science Academy (116)
3. Vickery Creek (123)
4. Chamblee (222)
5. River Trail (264)
6. South Forsyth (276)
7. Crews (293)
8. Oconee County (299)
9. Eighth Street (317)
10. Hightower Trail (322)

Full Scores

- They didn't do a points cutoff this year (in past years usually the bottom half or bottom third in an event were all given the same rank), which probably messed with our predictions (though I prefer this way considering the tiny point margins between teams that occurred under the cutoff; it became impossible to tell how good a team really was when 10 points could drop a team five ranks or more).
- Quite a larger margin than I would have expected; I thought FSA and Vickery Creek would be in the 80s and 90s (even if I apply the cutoff, they're both over 100).
- Chamblee pretty much destroyed our predictions; I'm pretty sure they didn't get any votes at all. Not sure where their performance here came from, but it was certainly fun to see. Quite a return from their fall in the years prior to 2016.
- River Trail, South Forsyth, and Crews pretty much finished where I expected (though River Trail did better than I would have thought).
- Oconee County didn't do so well; I guess the lack of invitationals must be a challenge (plus not knowing how they stack up this year = not much motivation)
- Eighth Street did really well this year, especially considering they lost at regionals to Gatewood, who placed 29th (last place).
- Taylor Road and McCleskey did especially well considering their performance at regionals (and considering how close McCleskey was to not qualifying).
- Kittredge in 21st. Guess I should have just picked Dickerson for 10th :/
- Flat Rock has fallen rather far from finishing in 6th two years ago.

This weekend; Division C state. The tournament director said WiFi may not work in the auditorium; if it does, awards display here starting at 4 PM
Do you really think you will have time for a live award feed while going up to receive your endless medals??
I'll get some people on the team to help me; I just enter a number for each team, and the spreadsheet displays the name, so it takes very little time anyways.
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Re: Georgia 2017

Post by Unome »

Div C poll is closed, here are the final tallies:

1. Brookwood - 97.6 (13)
2. Chattahoochee - 92.4 (4)
3. GSMST - 70.6
4. Milton - 64.7
5. Johns Creek - 54.1
6. Northview - 46.5
7. Walton - 31.2
8. Duluth - 25.9
9. Westminster - 22.9
10. Eagles - 9.4

Others receiving votes: Alpharetta, McIntosh (6.5), Fulton Science Academy, North Springs (5.3), Augusta Area Homeschoolers (2.9), Forsyth Central, North Oconee, Northgate (2.4), River Ridge (0.6).


My predictions (hopefully I won't miss a team by as much as I did Chamblee...)

1. Brookwood – Despite several strong showings by Chattahoochee (most notably at MIT), Brookwood continues to stay ahead in-state; in addition, with history behind them, they’re likely more motivated to win.
2. Chattahoochee – Although they’ve done substantially better than Brookwood at out of state tournaments and early in the season, they tend not to do as well within the state, losing to Brookwood at regionals by a small margin.
3. GSMST – They finished in second at Brookwood invitational, but only 8 points ahead of a much weakened Chattahoochee team, and their regional score wasn’t as impressive as it should be. While they could manage to beat Chattahoochee, I’d say it’s unlikely.
4. Milton – With solid results at invitationals this year, Milton has managed to distance themselves somewhat from the teams behind them, and should be able to maintain their place in the top 5.
5. Johns Creek – Johns Creek has been doing generally better over the last few years, beating regular top ten teams at regionals this year and last year, and seemed quite a bit ahead of Duluth at regionals (and I’m sure going to MIT helped with motivation and experience), so barring a turnaround from Northview, they have a good shot at top 5.
6. Northview – Although they finished rather poorly at regionals (almost missing out on qualifying for state), Northview has been one of the most consistent teams in the state, finishing between 3rd and 6th every year since 2005. To the best of my knowledge they’ve never done this badly at regionals, but it has happened enough times with other teams (see: Chattahoochee and Chamblee Charter in 2013, and Chattahoochee in 2014) that I’m not willing to put them much lower than this.
7. Walton – Walton seems not to have changed much with the influx of Dodgen competitors, so I’ll go on the assumption that they’re the kind of team that isn’t much influenced by Div B experience (whether due to a lack of interest or other things, I’m not sure). They still did as well as usual at regionals, finishing far ahead of River Ridge, though similarly far behind Brookwood and Chattahoochee, so they’ll likely remain in the top ten.
8. Westminster – Although they didn’t qualify for state in 2015 after several years in the top ten, they bounced back last year to 12th. A strong regionals win with several gold medals is what convinced me to put them back in here.
9. Duluth – Having been in the top ten for the last four years running, they don’t look in any position to stop now, finishing 2nd and 3rd at regionals.
10. Northgate – A tough spot to pick. Eagles beat Northview at regionals rather suddenly, but Northgate beating a usual top ten team is pretty impressive, even if we have yet to see how losing Booth will affect McIntosh. I wouldn’t be surprised to see either Eagles or McIntosh anywhere in the bottom half of the top ten however.
Honorable Mentions: McIntosh High School, Eagles Home Educators.

Good luck to everyone tomorrow! (here's the live medal sheet link)
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Re: Georgia 2017

Post by anagene »

You've seen how adept he is with filling in the spreadsheet; and, getting others to help fill it in if he has to head on stage. It was fascinating to see the blow-by-blow updates at the Div B State Tournament.
rfscoach wrote:
Unome wrote:Final Georgia B Results:


This weekend; Division C state. The tournament director said WiFi may not work in the auditorium; if it does, awards display here starting at 4 PM
Do you really think you will have time for a live award feed while going up to receive your endless medals??
He had the look of one who had drunk the cup of life and found a dead beetle at the bottom.
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