Pennsylvania 2017

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EastStroudsburg13
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Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Postby EastStroudsburg13 » March 26th, 2017, 8:10 pm

Here's the Central results I have so far:

B Division

1. Eagle View
2. Hershey
3. Park Forest
4. Spring Grove
5. ???
6. ???
7. Eastern York

C Division

1. ???
2. Central York
3. State College
4. ???
5. ???
6. ???
7. ???

Anyone who has the rest please let us know! These have been culled from various sources on the internet. I was not actually there.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Postby Rana_catesbeiana » March 27th, 2017, 9:58 am

Curious... Can anyone tell me how many division B teams competed in each PA region?

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Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Postby EastStroudsburg13 » March 27th, 2017, 10:17 am

Here are my best estimates from what I've seen (scoresheets and lists of teams registered)

B Division
NW - ? (4 teams at states; no scores or lists released)
SW - 19 (7 teams)
C - 23 (7 teams)
SE - 24 (7 teams)
CE - 12 (4 teams)
NE - 22 (7 teams)

C Division
NW - ? (4 teams; no scores or lists released)
SW - 28 (7 teams)
C - 35 (7 teams)
SE - 35 (7 teams)
CE - 24 (5 teams)
NE - 28 (6 teams)

I will note that for C, if there hadn't been weather concerns and all 29 teams were there, the distribution works perfectly: 7 teams each for SE and C, 6 teams for NE, CE, and SW, and 4 for NW. Personally, if I had to choose where to give CE's extra spot, I'd have given it to SE. I know that they always get the attention, but for the state finals, you want to have the best overall competition, and frankly, Garnet Valley is better than any other region's "just missed" team. Obviously you want the states spots to work out purely by proportions, but sometimes you end up with 35 or 37 teams, and you just have to make do.

EDIT: Also for B I am trying to proportion it out (operating under the assumption that NW had 12 teams) and I keep getting 7 for SE, NE, and C, 6 for SW, and 4 for NW and CE, which leaves 35 teams at states, and a similar "extra team" problem. I can see that they decided to give it to SW, but based on the proportions, SE was closest to rounding up to 8 teams. I probably would have given it to them in this case.

This is all just me musing, by the way. I don't actually know the exact process by which state spots are distributed; this is merely my closest approximation. I am also not attempting to undermine the state qualification process, as I think the system PA uses works great most years, and definitely has less hiccups than other states might have due to the large sizes of the regions. I'm just theorizing and presenting possible scenarios.

EDIT 2: I will also say that I've studied this for past years as well. Some years it works out, but usually at least once every other year the proportioning winds up with one team too few or too many. I have not yet figured out the protocol the state follows when this happens, but I am sure there is a policy (even though it sometimes leaves out teams I feel are deserving).

EDIT 3: I will also say that one reason I am surprised that a states qualification spot was removed from CE this year is because last year, Central had 31 teams competing but CE had only 29 teams competing, yet CE had 7 spots and Central had 6, so there must have been more teams registered in Central initially. So I wonder if they changed that policy for this year precisely to avoid a similar scenario.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Postby AlphaTauri » March 27th, 2017, 1:44 pm

Can confirm (via here) that Hershey HS did win Central.

Based on past years' results, this means Central York and/or State College will subsequently beat them at States.

Edit: Link is being finicky; it seems to work only in incognito mode for unknown reasons. Relevant text quoted.

• Hershey High School’s Science Olympiad team bested squads from 34 other schools competing at Millersville University, earning a first place at the regional competition and qualifying for the Pennsylvania State Competition at Juniata College.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Postby schist99centz » March 28th, 2017, 5:35 pm

Any update on the team numbers information?

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Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Postby maxxxxx » March 28th, 2017, 5:43 pm

schist99centz wrote:Any update on the team numbers information?

A teammate called PASO yesterday and they said the numbers might be delayed until today, but we still haven't gotten them.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Postby Anomaly » March 29th, 2017, 4:20 pm

So is it true that they are switching up the numbers for states? And does anyone know WHEN they are going to announce team numbers?
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Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Postby AlphaTauri » March 29th, 2017, 7:40 pm

Central results are up!

Results look pretty standard to me, though there are a couple things that stand out to me.

  • Eagle View MS with a total of 65, and 40 points clear of 2nd place -- did not know they were that dominant, nicely done to them
  • Wonder why WIDI was tossed for C, but I can't really say I'm that sad about it
  • Very surprised that Spring Grove HS has dropped to the point of not qualifying for States, since they always gave us a run for our money when I was still competing, but it seems they've been in a slump for a few years
  • 19th in astro? Really? Really? Dammit guys...
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Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Postby what a beauty » March 30th, 2017, 9:19 am

Thank you for the complement AlphaTauri. I am from Eagle View middle school. Does anyone have state predictions.

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Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Postby what a beauty » March 30th, 2017, 9:21 am

Also, does anyone have updates on when we are getting the numbers for states?

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Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Postby EastStroudsburg13 » March 30th, 2017, 10:29 am

Scores from NW, by the way:

Division B (15 teams)
1. North East - 85
2. Wattsburg Area - 107
3. Laurel - 119
4. Wilmington - 126

Division C (19 teams)
1. North East - 106
2. NWPACA - 114
3. Seneca - 121
4. Laurel - 131

Still awaiting team numbers; once those come out, hopefully we will be clearer on what teams are competing. However, in the meantime, here are what my computer rankings are saying for top 18 (top half of states) just if anyone is curious. Please note that these are very imperfect, and are just a general guide of where the team is likely to finish. My personal rankings will likely be different.

Div B
1. Shady Side (Power Index = 80.24)
2. Springhouse (86.04)
3. Strath Haven (103.14)
4. Eagle View (132.76)
5. Bala Cynwyd (135.96)
6. Franklin Regional (150.98)
7. Garnet Valley (207.50)
8. Park Forest (210.86)
9. Abington Heights (222.68)
10. Hershey (226.29)
11. Welsh Valley (228.89)
12. J.R. Fugett (245.59)
13. Spring Grove (259.71)
14. Wyoming Area (262.47)
15. Stetson (278.60)
16. Whitehall Coplay (281.26)
17. Orefield (284.40)
18. Springton Lake (299.86)

Div C
1. Harriton (15.96)
2. Bayard Rustin (56.88)
3. Conestoga (60.09)
4. Lower Merion (94.10)
5. Penncrest (96.78)
6. Shady Side (120.57)
7. Abington Heights (122.61)
8. Northwestern Lehigh (140.95)
9. Stroudsburg (150.91)
10. Central York (171.81)
11. Perkiomen Valley (175.45)
12. North Pocono (177.20)
13. Hershey (180.97)
14. Central Bucks South (188.35)
15. State College (192.87)
16. North Penn (193.63)
17. Allentown Central Catholic (217.94)
18. Parkland (218.94)

Also, the "power index" doesn't represent points; it's just a comparative number. It means nothing.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Postby Anomaly » March 30th, 2017, 11:40 am

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:Scores from NW, by the way:

Division B (15 teams)
1. North East - 85
2. Wattsburg Area - 107
3. Laurel - 119
4. Wilmington - 126

Division C (19 teams)
1. North East - 106
2. NWPACA - 114
3. Seneca - 121
4. Laurel - 131

Still awaiting team numbers; once those come out, hopefully we will be clearer on what teams are competing. However, in the meantime, here are what my computer rankings are saying for top 18 (top half of states) just if anyone is curious. Please note that these are very imperfect, and are just a general guide of where the team is likely to finish. My personal rankings will likely be different.

Div B
1. Shady Side (Power Index = 80.24)
2. Springhouse (86.04)
3. Strath Haven (103.14)
4. Eagle View (132.76)
5. Bala Cynwyd (135.96)
6. Franklin Regional (150.98)
7. Garnet Valley (207.50)
8. Park Forest (210.86)
9. Abington Heights (222.68)
10. Hershey (226.29)
11. Welsh Valley (228.89)
12. J.R. Fugett (245.59)
13. Spring Grove (259.71)
14. Wyoming Area (262.47)
15. Stetson (278.60)
16. Whitehall Coplay (281.26)
17. Orefield (284.40)
18. Springton Lake (299.86)

Div C
1. Harriton (15.96)
2. Bayard Rustin (56.88)
3. Conestoga (60.09)
4. Lower Merion (94.10)
5. Penncrest (96.78)
6. Shady Side (120.57)
7. Abington Heights (122.61)
8. Northwestern Lehigh (140.95)
9. Stroudsburg (150.91)
10. Central York (171.81)
11. Perkiomen Valley (175.45)
12. North Pocono (177.20)
13. Hershey (180.97)
14. Central Bucks South (188.35)
15. State College (192.87)
16. North Penn (193.63)
17. Allentown Central Catholic (217.94)
18. Parkland (218.94)

Also, the "power index" doesn't represent points; it's just a comparative number. It means nothing.

How did your computer get those calculations? (It interests me) Cause I know my school is going to do a lot worse than 17th.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Postby what a beauty » March 30th, 2017, 11:51 am

So, can you give us your predictions. Sorry for the asking but I am very eager to know

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Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Postby Anomaly » March 30th, 2017, 12:05 pm

what a beauty wrote:So, can you give us your predictions. Sorry for the asking but I am very eager to know


If it helps at all, I think (even though my predictions aren't very important) that Springhouse and Shady Side are 1st and 2nd, followed by Strath Haven and Eagle View, then Bala Cynwyd and Franklin Regional.
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State: 5
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Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Postby EastStroudsburg13 » March 30th, 2017, 12:08 pm

Anomaly wrote:How did your computer get those calculations? (It interests me) Cause I know my school is going to do a lot worse than 17th.

It's a combination of various metrics, including:
  • Number of teams at the team's regional
  • The team's score at regionals
  • The average score at states last year and the year before for all teams in that region that competed in those years (weighted to favor the more recent states)
  • The team's place at states the past two years (weighted to favor the more recent place). If the team did not qualify, a value of 30 is assigned (unless extenuating circumstances apply, as judged by me. ;) )
  • The number of competitions the team has attended the past two years

As you can see it simplifies a lot of different factors, so it's not perfect. For one, it doesn't really take into account scores at invitationals (which I have tried to mitigate by assigning bonus points, but it's a very subjective science so I try not to mess with it too much). Also, it doesn't take into account day-of variables: if team members are missing, if certain builds go wrong or get tiered, things like that.

As for Orefield, I wouldn't be so pessimistic. You placed second in a tough region, ahead of a team that's gotten 11th at two straight states. So unless you guys will be missing a significant portion of your team, top 20 seems reasonable to me. As long as you're still studying somewhat, of course. :geek:

EDIT: I will have to come up with my actual predictions still, but my top 6 will probably follow Anomaly's.
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