NWPACA competitor here, not sure about the division B results but for Division C, North East took first, Seneca second, NWPACA third, not sure of fourth place. Don't know the actual scores at this time but I'm pretty sure top 3 were very close.I guess it’s time for Part 2 of the rest of my predictions. I honestly don’t know how I can write so much about club teams from random high schools, knowing that the chances of being right on most of these isn’t all that high. But hey, it’s a fun diversion, and I have all the free time in the world, right? Anyway…
Northwest: 1. NW PA Collegiate Academy, 2. Seneca, 3. Clarion Area, 4. Laurel, 5. North East
Since Wilmington fell from their perch at the top of the region, it’s been in somewhat of a state of flux, with NW PA Collegiate Academy and Seneca taking turns placing first. I’m rolling with NWPACA to reclaim the top spot, due to their relative newness as a team and their placing at states last year, which was the highest for the region. Clarion Area has consistently been in the 2nd-4th range for the past few years, and I haven’t seen anything to indicate that will change. Same logic applies to Laurel here. North East could also contend for the top 4, since they’ve recovered from a brief dry spell in 2013 and 2014, but if only 4 teams qualify, they could be the first team on the outside looking in. The wild card here is Wilmington, which has the capability to recover or fall off completely. Judging by how both B and C programs in the district declined around the same time, a fall seems more likely, but they still might have the most upside in the region outside of NWPACA.
Southwest: 1. Shady Side, 2. Franklin Regional, 3. Quaker Valley, 4. Norwin, 5. Pittsburgh Allderdice
Interestingly, Shady Side’s C team might have a tighter grasp on the region than their B counterparts, and have a shot at getting a lower score out of the two for the first time in a decade or two, if not ever. There’s no way they lose this, although Franklin Regional could have a solid team, especially as the strong B competitors start to trickle up to the C level. They’re already consistently competitive, so an added boost could give them a stranglehold on second place for several years. For the time being, though, they could face stiff challenges from Quaker Valley, who seems likely to recover from their 6th place finish last year judging by history, and Norwin, which has stepped up its regional performances the past two years. Then there’s the ever-present Pittsburgh Allderdice, which has a history of performing well in the region, but hasn’t quite reached their old level in the past couple years, missing states in 2014 and placing last at states last year. They should still be good in-region, but I’m not comfortable putting them too much higher for now. The battle for the last few qualification spots should be stiff, as consistent teams like Montour and Peters Township are lurking, and surprise newcomers are possible, since full results from Southwest are rarely released.
Central: 1. Hershey, 2. Central York, 3. Elizabethtown, 4. State College, 5. Manheim Central
The overall quality and depth of this region is steadily improving, likely partially due to the start of the MC Barons Invitational, which is the first to be held within the Central region. While there is no clear top team, there are some very solid, evenly-matched teams here. At states last year, 5 teams from the region occupied the 8 spots between 12th and 19th, so this is a definite region to keep one’s eye on. For the time being, Hershey seems like the pick for first; while their states finishes haven’t always reflected it, they’ve won regionals twice in a row by pretty substantial margins, and a decent finish at Valley Forge suggests that they’re primed to do it again. They’ll be met by challenges from several teams, such as Central York, which provided generally unstacked teams at invitationals, and has had some of the higher states places for Central teams; it seems like a matter of time before they make inroads into the top 3 in the region. State College would be a safe pick for 3rd due to their history and consistency (outside of a 7th in 2015), but there’s a wild card in Elizabethtown, which broke out with a 2nd place last year. Despite a relatively lackluster states performance, this could be a dangerous team if they continue their trajectory, and their 10th/13th finish at MC Barons (thanks for those results!) shows that they aren’t going away. Manheim Central is another emerging team, and while they haven’t yet made states, they’ve been inching ever closer, and their commitment to improvement is apparent with a decently full invitational schedule (plus, you know, hosting one). They need to make up a sizable portion of points, but a 21st place finish at Valley Forge, just behind Hershey’s higher-placed team, and a 9th place finish at their own invite, just behind Central York’s higher-placed team and just above Elizabethtown; this team’s state ambitions are very realistic. It’ll take a strong effort to make up that much regional ground, though, as there are more teams that pose a strong threat to what’s likely to be 7 states spots, including Red Land, another emerging school; Cedar Cliff, which is probably feeling effects from Allen’s disappearance, but still likely has enough to make a run at qualification, and Spring Grove, which fell suddenly to 10th after being one of the most consistent teams in the region, but could post a strong score if they recover.
Central East: 1. Northwestern Lehigh, 2. Parkland, 3. Perkiomen Valley, 4. Fleetwood, 5. Allentown Central Catholic
Northwestern Lehigh and Perkiomen Valley have taken control over the region over the past couple of years. This year, Northwestern Lehigh seems like the strongest, with strong results at Valley Forge and Tiger standing out. Perkiomen Valley should still be solid, but while they are incredibly consistent, they seem unlikely to make a significant jump of any kind, leaving them vulnerable to be overtaken by an emerging team. Enter Parkland, which is starting to get more and more Springhouse influence, and placed only 9 points behind North Pocono at Tiger. They have the higher upside of the two, and if everything goes well, they could push Northwestern Lehigh and make a strong case for a potential top 10 finish in the state. After the top three, there are a host of solid teams, making this another deep region. One of these is Fleetwood, which had been one of the most sure bets for top 20 in the state until last year. Judging by their victory at Berks, they seem a likely candidate for recovering. Allentown Central Catholic is another perennial contender, and is defending third place currently. Their results at invitationals show that their upside may be capped a bit, but they’re likely still a favorite to qualify for states. If they drop, consistent schools Kutztown and Exeter Township could be right there to take their spot. Wyomissing could also be a team to watch, judging by their big improvement last year, and Wyoming Seminary, which is competing in Central East this year after being in Central, is also an improvement candidate.
Northeast: 1. North Pocono, 2. Abington Heights, 3. Stroudsburg, 4. Wyoming Area, 5. Wallenpaupack
While NEPA B might be weaker than in recent years due to the departure of Park Forest, this might be the strongest overall year for NEPA C teams since 2014. Each of the top four teams boasts a strong team, and pose real threats at the top 15 in the state. The top dog still seems to be North Pocono, though, and while their hypothetical placing from their own invitational is unknown, they’ve been a step above everyone else in the region, including at Tiger, which is the only time all four teams received scores at any single invitational this year, as far as I know. Stroudsburg, which is riding a 3-year streak of placing in the top 10 at states, will also be solid again, but they could be overtaken by the rapid rise of Abington Heights, which won the inaugural North Pocono Invite over Stroudsburg and achieved very good results at several other invitationals. This Abington Heights team also represents around the peak of the middle school team, so strong results throughout this season are likely. Stroudsburg does tend to improve significantly between regionals and states, but for the time being, Abington Heights seems to have the edge. This leaves Wyoming Area at fourth, which is tough for a Wyoming Area team that might be the strongest since their off year in 2012. They just seem a slight step behind the top three based on invites, but pose a very real chance at breaking in. After the top four, though, there appears to be a decently wide gap. Of the teams that could fill this gap, Wallenpaupack seems the most likely, judging by their appearances at Tiger and North Pocono, and their rapid rise between 2015 and 2016. Their return to states for the first time since 2011 definitely does not appear to be a one-off occurrence, and the potential for a continual rise exists. Other contenders exist, such as Dallas, which is consistently around the 5th-7th spots, East Stroudsburg South, which is in the last year of the most recent J.T. Lambert peak, and Athens, which still isn’t close to their days of dominance, but could reclaim some element of their strength. However, none of these really seem to have a chance at contesting any of the top four.
That's it from me. Now we just wait and watch the teams actually compete and prove me wrong in various ways. There will be teams that suddenly do really well, which is part of the beauty of Science Olympiad; teams can jump from 200+ points to under 100 in the span of a year. That, to me, is the true appear of the competition.
I'm not too sure about B Division, but C Division was spot on!PRELIMINARY NEPA RESULTS:
1. Abington Heights
2. Wyoming Area
4. Wayne Highlands
5. Wilkes-Barre Academy
6. Wyoming Seminary
7. Harlan Rowe
1. Abington Heights
3. North Pocono
5. Wyoming Area
6. East Stroudsburg South
I am a little biased but I am hoping these hold!
[size=80][u]MC Barons | Tiger | North Pocono | Regionals | States[/u] Dynamic: 2 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 9 Remote: 9 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 8 Hydro: 11 | 18 | 3 | 2 | 2 Game On: 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 21[/size]
[size=80][u]North Pocono | Regionals | States[/u] Dynamic: 1 | 2 | - Remote: 2 | 1 | - Game On: 3 | 4 | -[/size]
I'm the coach from Laurel (Formally Wilmington's Coach)
Here are the NW PA Results:
1st. - North East
2nd - Seneca
3rd - NWPA Collegiate Academy
4th - Laurel
1st - North East
2nd - Wattsburg
3rd - Wilmington
4th - Laurel
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