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Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Posted: March 9th, 2017, 6:47 pm
by jonboyage
If I'm not mistaken, the state event supervisors this year are also writing the regionals tests for their event. So if the state event supervisor is in your region, will he/she be proctoring and grading tests in their event? Someone in SE probably knows the answer to this because many supervisors are in their region and they've already had their competition. Thanks in advance
I'm not sure for other events, but for Astro Cicc from Penncrest is the state supervisor and proctored it at SE.

Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Posted: March 9th, 2017, 6:53 pm
by Ionizer
If I'm not mistaken, the state event supervisors this year are also writing the regionals tests for their event. So if the state event supervisor is in your region, will he/she be proctoring and grading tests in their event? Someone in SE probably knows the answer to this because many supervisors are in their region and they've already had their competition. Thanks in advance
Not necessarily. I am in the Southwest region but I will not be doing anything at regionals because I have classes and I have no transportation.

I think everyone is getting a little too eager about predictions. There is still more than a month and a half until states. Having said that, my opinion about many of the predictions posted is that Penncrest is being underrated. They have been in the top 3 at states for the past 14 years. Of course, streaks can be broken, but I feel that there is a very good chance they will finish somewhere in the top 3 this year as well.

Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Posted: March 9th, 2017, 8:01 pm
by EastStroudsburg13
Does your algorithm have any score predictions for States? Here's mine:
1. Harriton (~65)
2. Conestoga (~80 woo)
3. Rustin (~175)
4. Lower Merion (~220)
5. Shady Side (~240)
6. Penncrest (~250)
I really, really doubt Rustin gets any more than 150. I am expecting the gap between Stoga and Rustin to be about 40 points max.

The program doesn't spit out scores, but if I add about 50 to the "Ranking Index" I feel like I get good estimates

Harriton ~66
Stoga/Rustin ~108
LM ~144
Penncrest ~147

I do think Stoga/Rustin will be closer to LM, and Penncrest seems likely to be in the 170-190 range. However, scores are hard to tell. I also have not included other regions since I do not have scores for them.

Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Posted: March 10th, 2017, 6:32 am
by Apple_Nut
Does your algorithm have any score predictions for States? Here's mine:
1. Harriton (~65)
2. Conestoga (~80 woo)
3. Rustin (~175)
4. Lower Merion (~220)
5. Shady Side (~240)
6. Penncrest (~250)
I really, really doubt Rustin gets any more than 150. I am expecting the gap between Stoga and Rustin to be about 40 points max.

The program doesn't spit out scores, but if I add about 50 to the "Ranking Index" I feel like I get good estimates

Harriton ~66
Stoga/Rustin ~108
LM ~144
Penncrest ~147

I do think Stoga/Rustin will be closer to LM, and Penncrest seems likely to be in the 170-190 range. However, scores are hard to tell. I also have not included other regions since I do not have scores for them.
You'll have the rest of the scores very soon. Southwest included :D

Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Posted: March 12th, 2017, 12:01 pm
by Apple_Nut
I fed the SEPA scores into my computer algorithm, and this is what it's spitting out for me for the order of these teams.

Harriton
Bayard Rustin
Conestoga
Lower Merion
Penncrest
Central Bucks South
North Penn

Honestly, I think it's still a toss-up between Stoga and Rustin. Rustin had much better invite showings than Rice (namely, Valley Forge, Mentor, Cornell). Stoga's placing at MIT is boosted by the fact that they beat FM, which later beat Rustin at Mentor, but FM has shown pretty clear improvement over the course of the year. Maybe Stoga's the favorite for second, but they're a very slight one if anything, and Rustin is defending that spot, so I'm not really sure you can call either one the favorite.

As for Lower Merion, they're definitely intriguing. There's no recent precedence for a LM team this good, so I'm not sure how they'll finish. I do get the feeling that it'll be immensely difficult for them to overcome more experienced teams like Rustin and Stoga, but they'll probably push the limit.

In terms of full predictions, I'm going to wait until all the regions are done. B division especially is wide open after Springhouse, so it's going to be hard to make any comparisons before all regional scores are out.
Does your algorithm have any score predictions for States? Here's mine:
1. Harriton (~65)
2. Conestoga (~80 woo)
3. Rustin (~175)
4. Lower Merion (~220)
5. Shady Side (~240)
6. Penncrest (~250)

I'm curious as to how you are calculating your score predictions. Could you shed some light?

Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Posted: March 13th, 2017, 6:52 am
by EastStroudsburg13
2017 NEPA Scores:

Division B (22 total teams)
1. Abington Heights - 106
2. Wyoming Area - 120
3. Dallas - 139
4. Wayne Highlands - 153
5. Wilkes-Barre Academy - 157
6. Wyoming Seminary - 172
7. Harlan Rowe - 181

8. Wallenpaupack - 208
9. Crestwood - 224
10. Jersey Shore - 247
11. Lake Lehman - 248
12. Delaware Valley - 268

Division C (28 total teams)
1. Abington Heights - 66
2. Stroudsburg - 108
3. North Pocono - 127
4. Wallenpaupack - 156
5. Wyoming Area - 166
6. East Stroudsburg South - 167

7. Pleasant Valley - 208
8. Dallas - 212
9. Athens - 212
10. Lehighton - 302
11. Scranton Prep - 337
12. Pocono Mountain East - 339

The scoresheet is in an interesting format where each event is in separate PDFs, so I will try to compile them at some point.

Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Posted: March 13th, 2017, 2:47 pm
by AlphaTauri
The scoresheet is in an interesting format where each event is in separate PDFs
...why.

It's weird to hear all this PA stuff and feel out of the loop after only a few years :(

Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Posted: March 13th, 2017, 5:18 pm
by EastStroudsburg13
I have put the results tables I made on Dropbox: Link to Scores

Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Posted: March 15th, 2017, 12:23 pm
by ParkourNinja
Any news on trial events??

Re: Pennsylvania 2017

Posted: March 16th, 2017, 7:29 am
by EastStroudsburg13
Anyone from NW know if they're going to post scores on the website like they have the last couple years?
Any news on trial events??
Those will probably be announced after all regionals are done, if I had to hazard a guess. They will probably be announced on the Announcements page on the state website, which seems to be down right now.