Unofficial Rankings B

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pikachu4919
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Re: Unofficial Rankings B

Post by pikachu4919 » May 12th, 2017, 2:57 pm

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:
Juanyjose wrote: What's the whole thing about new teams never doing good? Kinda like beginners bad luck or something? We bombed a lot of events at state too, we were surprised we got past Pembroke.
It's not that they never do well; it just tends to happen that they do worse than a multi-year defending team had done in the previous years. There are a few examples in both divisions from last year:
  • Carmel (IN C)
The only major exceptions were California Trail (KS B) and Capital (ID C). So yes, it does happen, but traditionally teams that break a team's big streak tend not to do as well as that team had in the past. There are, of course, natural explanations for this; a new team is much more likely to really get into the special events and pageantry surrounding nationals, whereas a team that experiences it year after year is more likely to just focus on the events themselves. And I also think that more new teams going to nationals is a really good thing, and something I love seeing. However, from a predictions perspective, it's more likely that a team that's qualifying for the first time will not do quite as well as the teams that preceded it, just from historical results.
I think with new teams, I understand there can be a bit of a psychological effect in terms of tournament preparation - like how much preparation for events is needed, what the tournament as a whole is like (such as the standard ceremonies and the swap meet), worrying about logistics that are addressed before the tournament (aka COSTS, transportation, rooming, etc.), etc. For returning teams, they've handled it before so it shouldn't be as much of a problem arranging all that jazz, but for new teams going, it can be overwhelming, like the feeling of wanting to be like, "OK ONE THING AT A TIME" but in reality, there are so many things to handle, not to mention pressure new teams may feel from wanting to do just as well as the team that represented their state the year before.

Believe me, that definitely occurred with our team last year, but at the same time, plenty of people on our team last year skipped many of the special events (one reason being that we didn't start Expo sign up until < 2 weeks before nats, so there weren't a whole ton of options open anyways - side note: missing expo signups was probably a side effect of being a new team as well) to focus on the actual events, so the part about being more into the special events and not the main events at nationals is not always the case although sometimes it can be.

And then there's always those events that can be very volatile in terms of results from competition to competition, like all the builds, WIDI, and ExDes, and in addition, some teams can get hit significantly with event conflicts between state and nationals (which also happened with our team - our state schedule worked out nicely for us, but the nationals schedule was really gnarly for us, one example being that my forensics partner and I were also both the two primary cell biology competitors, but neither of us were able to compete in the event due to the time conflict with forensics; another example being that I got put into dynamic planet for nats because one of the two primary competitors in that event had a conflict with green generation) - that can also have an important effect on team performance at nationals, especially with teams that don't build their teams around the tentative nats schedule since they're not positive they'll be able to make it out of their state tournament.

TL;DR: I think East has some good points on reasons why new teams aren't as successful, but they MIGHT not necessarily be the case, and there are many other factors that can also hinder or enhance the success of a new team at nats.

Honestly I went on two off-campus trips with the expo last year at nats and still medaled in one event, made the top 10 in another and made the top 30 in my last one (that I was not primarily in/only doing due to time conflicts on my other events), so it's definitely still possible to enjoy some of the special events and still do well in the tournament!

And East is going to roast me in 3...2...1...
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Re: Unofficial Rankings B

Post by EastStroudsburg13 » May 12th, 2017, 3:14 pm

Considering I've never competed at nationals, I think your perspective definitely has merit and is probably accurate for many first-time teams competing, and is something I didn't consider. And (pure conjecture here) I think it might indicate that multi-year defending champions are more likely to plan their events around the nationals schedule, thus avoiding conflicts when they arise at the final stage. Challenging teams, meanwhile, might be more likely to plan their events around the state schedule, which can sometimes result in problems at the national stage. Again, this could be one of many possible factors that can impact teams; no team is going to be affected the same way. And some teams do exceed expectations; it's entirely possible.

Anyway here's an updated ranking. I've input the scores for Idaho from the C Rankings thread, as well as scores from Arizona and Connecticut. Based on these, Lyme-Old Lyme moved from 32nd to 38th, Paragon moved from 47th to 45th, and Treasure Valley moved from 52nd to 48th. The surrounding teams remained in the same order.

Also, I do not currently have B scores for Oregon, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Maine, Wyoming, West Virginia, or New Hampshire; if you happen to have these please let me know! Thanks! :)

1. Daniel Wright
2. Winston Churchill
3. Beckendorff
4. Meads Mill
5. Solon
6. Marie Murphy
7. Tower Heights
8. Piedmont
9. Longfellow
10. Springhouse
11. Ladue
12. Paul J. Gelinas
13. Eagle Hill
14. Baker
15. Hamilton
16. Dodgen
17. Oak Valley
18. Chippewa
19. Shady Side
20. Community
21. Thomas Jefferson
22. Auburn
23. Fred J. Carnage
24. Preston
25. Fulton Science Academy
26. Highlands
27. A.W. Coolidge
28. Wydown
29. H.B. DuPont
30. Russell Independent
31. Kealing
32. Bearden
33. Archimedean
34. Ames
35. Clinton
36. Bellevue Mission
37. North Bethesda
38. Lyme-Old Lyme
39. Fairfield
40. Northshore
41. Stoller
42. Wachter
43. California Trail
44. Orlando Science
45. Paragon Science Academy
46. Casady
47. Clancy
48. Treasure Valley Home School
49. Hyde Park
50. Yankton
51. Albuquerque Area Home Schoolers
52. Colony
53. Gallagher
54. Medomak
55. St. John Berchmans
56. Riverton
57. Germantown
58. Huntington
59. LISA Academy West
60. Walpole
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Re: Unofficial Rankings B

Post by bernard » May 17th, 2017, 7:32 am

Prediction Contest is back! Send your submissions by Saturday morning before the tournament: viewtopic.php?f=231&t=10629&p=314235#p314235.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings B

Post by NortonSig » May 17th, 2017, 3:30 pm

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:Considering I've never competed at nationals, I think your perspective definitely has merit and is probably accurate for many first-time teams competing, and is something I didn't consider. And (pure conjecture here) I think it might indicate that multi-year defending champions are more likely to plan their events around the nationals schedule, thus avoiding conflicts when they arise at the final stage. Challenging teams, meanwhile, might be more likely to plan their events around the state schedule, which can sometimes result in problems at the national stage. Again, this could be one of many possible factors that can impact teams; no team is going to be affected the same way. And some teams do exceed expectations; it's entirely possible.

Anyway here's an updated ranking. I've input the scores for Idaho from the C Rankings thread, as well as scores from Arizona and Connecticut. Based on these, Lyme-Old Lyme moved from 32nd to 38th, Paragon moved from 47th to 45th, and Treasure Valley moved from 52nd to 48th. The surrounding teams remained in the same order.

Also, I do not currently have B scores for Oregon, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Maine, Wyoming, West Virginia, or New Hampshire; if you happen to have these please let me know! Thanks! :)

1. Daniel Wright
2. Winston Churchill
3. Beckendorff
4. Meads Mill
5. Solon
6. Marie Murphy
7. Tower Heights
8. Piedmont
9. Longfellow
10. Springhouse
11. Ladue
12. Paul J. Gelinas
13. Eagle Hill
14. Baker
15. Hamilton
16. Dodgen
17. Oak Valley
18. Chippewa
19. Shady Side
20. Community
21. Thomas Jefferson
22. Auburn
23. Fred J. Carnage
24. Preston
25. Fulton Science Academy
26. Highlands
27. A.W. Coolidge
28. Wydown
29. H.B. DuPont
30. Russell Independent
31. Kealing
32. Bearden
33. Archimedean
34. Ames
35. Clinton
36. Bellevue Mission
37. North Bethesda
38. Lyme-Old Lyme
39. Fairfield
40. Northshore
41. Stoller
42. Wachter
43. California Trail
44. Orlando Science
45. Paragon Science Academy
46. Casady
47. Clancy
48. Treasure Valley Home School
49. Hyde Park
50. Yankton
51. Albuquerque Area Home Schoolers
52. Colony
53. Gallagher
54. Medomak
55. St. John Berchmans
56. Riverton
57. Germantown
58. Huntington
59. LISA Academy West
60. Walpole
Hey East, I'm from PA too and I was just wondering three things.

First, what do you think about Shady Side's huge improvement this year. Could it move them into the top 15?

Second, what do you think of the brand new team effect where they always place low in their first national tournament (or something like that)? Will it affect Oak Valley or Baker?

And third, does Springhouse have a chance of placing better than Ten?

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Re: Unofficial Rankings B

Post by EastStroudsburg13 » May 18th, 2017, 5:45 am

NortonSig wrote:Hey East, I'm from PA too and I was just wondering three things.

First, what do you think about Shady Side's huge improvement this year. Could it move them into the top 15?

Second, what do you think of the brand new team effect where they always place low in their first national tournament (or something like that)? Will it affect Oak Valley or Baker?

And third, does Springhouse have a chance of placing better than Ten?
I don't purport to be omniscient but I'll give you my thoughts on these.

1. I do think Shady Side could move into the top 15. However, the key word here is could; they probably need a lot to go right to finish 15th or higher. They are definitely much improved on last year, but they may not be better than they were in 2014/2015, and there's quite a depth of solid teams that have aims of finishing in the top 15 that they'd have to crack. It's not outside the realm of possibility but I think 15th would be on the higher end of expectations.

2. My thoughts about the "new team effect" are a few posts up, so I won't repeat my whole spiel, but essentially, there's a variety of factors that favor repeat champions that make nationals every year, which don't apply to teams that break their streaks. So, I do expect Baker to place lower than Lakeshore did last year (7th) or even the year before (12th). Oak Valley is a special case in that they didn't beat Muscatel; Muscatel simply stopped competing. It's hard to tell exactly where they'll fall, but somewhere in the latter half of the top 20 seems to be around what's expected. Again, neither of these teams are bad teams; however, I don't think they'll place as high as the teams they are displacing.

3. Yes, Springhouse has a chance of placing better than 10th. They could also do worse than 10th. Expected finish is somewhat of a distribution, where a team could do better or worse, depending on how their day goes. Springhouse is right on the line of breaking the "Sewickley Curse" but they have to avoid any major disasters to do it.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings B

Post by Dohnnovan » May 18th, 2017, 7:17 am

What is the "Sewickley Curse" ?
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Re: Unofficial Rankings B

Post by EastStroudsburg13 » May 18th, 2017, 7:39 am

Essentially, Sewickley was a Pittsburgh-based PA B team that competed from 2006-2009. They qualified for nationals all four years, peaking at 6th in 2008. However, after 2009, their coach left the school, and nobody replaced him, and so the team disbanded. Since then, no PA B team has placed in the top 10, although teams have regularly gotten close:
  • 2010: Bala Cynwyd 14th
  • 2011: Strath Haven 11th
  • 2013: Shady Side 11th, Strath Haven 14th
  • 2014: Shady Side 14th
  • 2015: Springhouse: 11th
  • 2016: Springhouse: 12th
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