Unofficial Rankings C

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby windu34 » April 22nd, 2017, 8:28 pm

kenniky wrote:13. Boca Raton - stepping it up, builds are op, did well at MIT

This is where I predict us based on results from this year as well...seems like a stretch to me though

kenniky wrote:21. Iolani - how do they get their builds here without breaking them

We always fly and check them in on the plane and I didn't have any problems last year. I also design my builds with the flight in mind so I have a game plan when it comes time to pack
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Ashernoel » April 23rd, 2017, 7:35 am

Idk if any other team ever experiences this but on NT we have a few people that don't really try and have a negative mindset so people aren't preparing that much. Also our EV can't get double digits negative and robot arm can't perfect score. Honestly, 8th is probably pretty high for us. We probably peaked around wright state and then the team energy went down :(

Especially with how strong Clements and a lot of the other teams are, we probably will sit in low teens
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby windu34 » April 23rd, 2017, 7:44 am

Ashernoel wrote:Idk if any other team ever experiences this but on NT we have a few people that don't really try and have a negative mindset so people aren't preparing that much. Also our EV can't get double digits negative and robot arm can't perfect score. Honestly, 8th is probably pretty high for us. We probably peaked around wright state and then the team energy went down :(

Especially with how strong Clements and a lot of the other teams are, we probably will sit in low teens

Perfect score for robot is not readily obtainable at all this year. Id be surprised to see more than 1 or 2 teams achieve it. Double digit negative on EV is a little easier, but again maybe top 6 or top 10 will achieve - wouldn't expect more than that
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Unome » April 23rd, 2017, 9:14 am

kenniky wrote:1. Troy - duh
2. Mira Loma - great performance at Nats last year
3. Harriton - 2nd at Nats last year, 3rd at MIT. I think they sandbagged Penn and Princeton?
4. Solon - always a strong contender for a top spot
5. LASA - obligatory Texas is good
6. Northville - strong Wright State on top of being a generally decent team
7. Stevenson - idk much about these guys but this seems ok
8. New Trier - strong MIT + Wright State
9. Mentor - obligatory Ohio is good. they died at Wright State though... ?
10. Acton-Boxborough - pls
11. Chattahoochee - good MIT performance. losing to Brookwood at states is kinda sketch though
12. Mounds View - falling but probably still around this level? I could see them anywhere from 9th to 14th
13. Boca Raton - stepping it up, builds are op, did well at MIT
14. Clements - Clements is good but they don't do so well at Nationals usually. they lost to Boca Raton at MIT so I put them here
15. West Windsor-Plainsboro South - being new to Nationals since the last few years probably means they'll underperform, I could see them going up to 10th though
16. Fayetteville-Manlius - unome likes them lol. NY doesn't tend to do super well at Nats though (F-M didn't even top 20 last year); however, they did decent at Penn and beat Bayard Rustin at Mentor
17. Munster - did bad at Wright State and also didn't go to Nats last year. Maybe they'll pull an upset though?
18. the other Pennsylvania team - I literally can't tell where these guys are at but this seems like a safe bet. If it's Bayard Rustin they might be higher because they did well last year but everyone else looks strong
19. Columbia - they usually do about this well. I'd put them higher but it seems kind of unrealistic
20. Fossil Ridge - sleeper pick, they did decently last year
21. Iolani - how do they get their builds here without breaking them

-Why Solon below Harriton? They've been doing really well this season.
-Munster that low seems really unrealistic considering how ridiculously well they did at state.
-Why do you get the impression I like F-M? (revising my predictions, I'd put them at 11th behind Stevenson and Clements)
-Boca Raton: doesn't seem any better than last year; same goes for Chattahoochee. I'd expect no higher than 15th for either. Also looking at the MIT scores, Clements at full strength (no-shows) would have placed 8th or 9th.

Ashernoel wrote:Idk if any other team ever experiences this but on NT we have a few people that don't really try and have a negative mindset so people aren't preparing that much. Also our EV can't get double digits negative and robot arm can't perfect score. Honestly, 8th is probably pretty high for us. We probably peaked around wright state and then the team energy went down :(

Especially with how strong Clements and a lot of the other teams are, we probably will sit in low teens

You're lucky it's only a few. Re: EV I doubt we've ever gotten single digit negatives, and Robot Arm I echo windu, that's really difficult this year. I agree though, I wouldn't rank NT higher than 12th or 13th.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby kenniky » April 23rd, 2017, 10:25 am

Unome wrote:
kenniky wrote:1. Troy - duh
2. Mira Loma - great performance at Nats last year
3. Harriton - 2nd at Nats last year, 3rd at MIT. I think they sandbagged Penn and Princeton?
4. Solon - always a strong contender for a top spot
5. LASA - obligatory Texas is good
6. Northville - strong Wright State on top of being a generally decent team
7. Stevenson - idk much about these guys but this seems ok
8. New Trier - strong MIT + Wright State
9. Mentor - obligatory Ohio is good. they died at Wright State though... ?
10. Acton-Boxborough - pls
11. Chattahoochee - good MIT performance. losing to Brookwood at states is kinda sketch though
12. Mounds View - falling but probably still around this level? I could see them anywhere from 9th to 14th
13. Boca Raton - stepping it up, builds are op, did well at MIT
14. Clements - Clements is good but they don't do so well at Nationals usually. they lost to Boca Raton at MIT so I put them here
15. West Windsor-Plainsboro South - being new to Nationals since the last few years probably means they'll underperform, I could see them going up to 10th though
16. Fayetteville-Manlius - unome likes them lol. NY doesn't tend to do super well at Nats though (F-M didn't even top 20 last year); however, they did decent at Penn and beat Bayard Rustin at Mentor
17. Munster - did bad at Wright State and also didn't go to Nats last year. Maybe they'll pull an upset though?
18. the other Pennsylvania team - I literally can't tell where these guys are at but this seems like a safe bet. If it's Bayard Rustin they might be higher because they did well last year but everyone else looks strong
19. Columbia - they usually do about this well. I'd put them higher but it seems kind of unrealistic
20. Fossil Ridge - sleeper pick, they did decently last year
21. Iolani - how do they get their builds here without breaking them

-Why Solon below Harriton? They've been doing really well this season.
-Munster that low seems really unrealistic considering how ridiculously well they did at state.
-Why do you get the impression I like F-M? (revising my predictions, I'd put them at 11th behind Stevenson and Clements)
-Boca Raton: doesn't seem any better than last year; same goes for Chattahoochee. I'd expect no higher than 15th for either. Also looking at the MIT scores, Clements at full strength (no-shows) would have placed 8th or 9th.

lol these predictions were made on a whim while I was sleep deprived; I'll try to answer though
for context, all the data I used for that (it's not a lot)
Image


- Harriton did better at MIT and 2016 Nats than Solon did. I agree they're close and wouldn't be surprised to see them switch
- The only real data I have for Munster is Wright State, and generally teams that didn't make Nats the previous year tend to underperform
- I didn't closely look at F-M but they had a mediocre MIT and last year NY didn't do so hot. looking back though I agree F-M tends to be pretty strong at Nats, would probably put them in 8-10 range
- Chattahoochee and Boca Raton both did pretty well at MIT but I looked at 2016 MIT and they did about the same and both got 16-20, so yeah I'd probably change that too lol
- Clements tends to do worse at Nats than both LASA and Seven Lakes

I think I'll revise my predictions a bit though

1. Troy - duh
2. Mira Loma - great performance at Nats last year
3. Harriton - 2nd at Nats last year, 3rd at MIT. I think they sandbagged Penn and Princeton?
4. Solon - always a strong contender for a top spot
5. LASA - obligatory Texas is good
6. Northville - strong Wright State on top of being a generally decent team
7. Stevenson - idk much about these guys but this seems ok
8. Mentor - obligatory Ohio is good. they died at Wright State though... ?
9. Fayetteville-Manlius - decent past performances at Nats, last year seems like it was a fluke. They didn't do great at MIT though
10. Acton-Boxborough - pls
11. New Trier - strong MIT + Wright State but NT doesn't seem to believe in itself lol
12. Mounds View - falling but probably still around this level? I could see them anywhere from 9th to 14th
13. Munster - did bad at Wright State and also didn't go to Nats last year, but they did really well at Nats the last time they went and they did well at States. could see them here up to 9th
14. Clements - Clements is good but they don't do so well at Nationals usually
15. West Windsor-Plainsboro South - being new to Nationals since the last few years probably means they'll underperform, I could see them going up to 10th though
16. Chattahoochee - good MIT performance, comparable to last year, seems they have momentum
17. Boca Raton - comparable to Chattahoochee it seems
18. the other Pennsylvania team - I literally can't tell where these guys are at but this seems like a safe bet
19. Columbia - they usually do about this well. I'd put them higher but it seems kind of unrealistic
20. Fossil Ridge - sleeper pick, they did decently last year
21. Iolani - how do they get their builds here without breaking them

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby antoine_ego » April 23rd, 2017, 6:39 pm

kenniky wrote:9. Fayetteville-Manlius - decent past performances at Nats, last year seems like it was a fluke. They didn't do great at MIT though
10. Acton-Boxborough - pls
11. New Trier - strong MIT + Wright State but NT doesn't seem to believe in itself lol
12. Mounds View - falling but probably still around this level? I could see them anywhere from 9th to 14th


I disagree with this section.

9. Acton-Boxborough - Come one man, believe!
10. New Trier - Strong performance at MIT, which gives them this spot.
11. Mounds View - Going by instinct on this one. Odds are, their momentum will carry them through this year. I agree though, between 9th to 15th is pretty reasonable.
12. F-M - I don't feel they will get top 10. Going by your data, they are performing decently, but not high enough that would warrant them a top 10. Plus, they didn't go to Nats last year, so that could affect them.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Ashernoel » April 25th, 2017, 5:04 pm

1. Troy - they are op.
2. Solon - they have been super strong every time i have seen them, and their history is great...
3. William P. Clements - Beat Seven Lakes (which was 2nd at mit) and have gotten super good super fast. Who knows where they will stop..
4. Lasa - narrowly beat Clements at state but clements rate of improvement is greater bc of last
5. Harriton - lower than texas teams bc of MIT but still strong.
6. Mira Loma - They didn't do that well at golden gate but won nats last year so...
7. Northville - did super well at wright state
8. Stevenson - Lost a lot of ppl so it will be hard but they will be strong prob.
9. Acton Boxborough - idk seems like a good place to plop them.
10. Mentor - Ohio teams are ruthless and had a good state performance
11. Chattahoochee - faith in the Unome to get his team where he wants to go.
12. WWP - idk much about these but they seem good.
13. New Trier - similar place we got last year. Only two people at practice today, so team is ded.
14. Fayettville Manlius - They have good build events (towers?) i think which will help them get points and do well.
15. Munster - poor wright state, no nats last year, but indiana W and strong.
16. PA2 = good?
17. Iolani - did well at golden gate for the events they did and cute name
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Last edited by Ashernoel on April 25th, 2017, 6:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby maxxxxx » April 25th, 2017, 5:50 pm

Ashernoel wrote:4. Lasa - narrowly beat centerville at state but centerville's rate of improvement is greater bc of last

.

I assume you mean Clements and not Centerville here, right?

Also I'd love to see Clements in 3rd because LASA and Seven Lakes both got 3rd at Nats in the past two years.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Ashernoel » April 25th, 2017, 6:17 pm

maxxxxx wrote:
Ashernoel wrote:4. Lasa - narrowly beat centerville at state but centerville's rate of improvement is greater bc of last

.

I assume you mean Clements and not Centerville here, right?

Also I'd love to see Clements in 3rd because LASA and Seven Lakes both got 3rd at Nats in the past two years.

Oh yea my bad will edit
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Ashernoel » April 29th, 2017, 8:16 pm

I think I might have to move Harriton up to first after that DOMINATING state victory that cuts in half last years performance. Yea. There is a high chance they take it!
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby windu34 » April 29th, 2017, 10:30 pm

I think its time:

1. Harriton - exceedingly strong state performance coupled by team momentum from last year puts them at #1 for me
2. Mira Loma - based on Golden Gate and state performances, very strong team all around and don't see them falling much
3. Troy - certainly stronger than last year, but wouldn't say top 2 due to certain weak events
4. Solon - I find the state results misleading. Even with 2 bomb events (which likely occurred due to chance because of the nature of Optics and WIDI), they were a very close 2nd. I see them doing very well this year
5. LASA - coming off a strong state performance as well as a continuous national contender
6. Northville - strong team. Don't really know a ton
7. Clements - breakthrough state performance coupled with an absurd amount of members appearing on the forums insinuates high level of motivation and drive amongst the team
8. Mentor - strong state and invitational performances
9. Stevenson - I don't really have much to say about this
10. Acton Boxborough - historically strong team with strong state performance as well as invitational. Many national-medaling veterans on this team I believe
11. Mounds View - despite all the talk of a decline, they still appear strong and while I can see them falling to the mid-teens, they could also remain here
12. Chattahoochee - similar state performance to last year and strong invite performances. Up and coming team that I foresee in the top 10 soon enough
13. WWPS - strong performance at state
14. Fayetteville-Manlius - Don't have much to say about this either
15. Boca Raton - Strong group of underclassmen coupled with experienced senior class

I'm too uncertain on the rest to continue
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Unome » May 1st, 2017, 3:32 pm

Trying top 30 this time since it's so competitive (and actually wrote descriptions for all of them):

1. Harriton - After that state performance, it's really hard to put them any lower. We'll see how it goes though, PA wasn't as competitive at the top this year as usual.
2. Troy - No explanation needed. MIT and Golden Gate scores are plenty sufficient, though they have tended to get weaker throughout the season during the past two years.
3. Solon - I'll pretty much echo windu on this one, they're stronger than their state score appears. Probably their strongest team since 2013.
4. Mira Loma - Did really well at state (after finally stacking), and of course winning nationals last year probably helps.
5. LASA - A very strong state score and several good results, but I doubt they could beat any of the teams above them (or that any of the teams below them will rise any higher).
6. Northville - State score is not typically very indicative for them (for reasons outlined on the Michigan state thread), but invitational results are promising (if not quite to the level of the peak 2013 and 2014 Meads Mill teams).
7. Mentor - Same as in my previous predictions, Ohio teams are typically good at translating state success to nationals, and they did very well at state. I would expect to see them anywhere in the bottom half of the top ten.
8. Munster - Has come roaring back this year, destroying their state tournament. I don't quite think they're as good as the peak 2015 team, but it also depends on how the teams around them are. In addition, they'll have to recover from missing a year.
9. Clements - Just 2 points behind LASA at state, although they haven't yet finished in the top ten at nationals. I think they have a good shot this year though.
10. New Trier - As of winning state I will put them in here, though barely. I wouldn't be surprised to see them as low as 14th.
11. Stevenson - The Daniel Wright teams seem not to have been able to translate their success into Div C as well as Meads Mill; this team should be very similar to Daniel Wright's 2013 team. We'll see how it goes though; they did very well at Nationals last year.
12. Mounds View - They seem to be getting to the point of being underrated, which is rather strange considering the exceptionally low score that they needed for 10th place last year. They don't seem to have dropped much this year (though it's hard to compare them as MN competition isn't all that strong).
13. Fayetteville-Manlius - Did very well at state, but I don't know if they can return to the top ten at Nationals after missing a year and not doing so well at invitationals.
14. Acton-Boxborough - The 10th-14th place teams were difficult for me to rank, and unfortunately A-B got the short straw. They're still about as good as in past years, but there are so many good teams this year that's it'll be very difficult for them to do much better.
15. Chattahoochee - Though they've done about as well as last year (which should thus rank them lower) they are a bit more consistent this year in most cases.
16. WW-P South - Two years missing nationals will probably take a toll, and combined with the strength of the teams this year, I don't see them any higher than 15th.
17. Ladue Horton Watkins - Very strong state performance this year, which should push them up quite a bit, though how far is hard to tell; the second quintile, as it often is, is the most crowded.
18. 'Iolani - Have been steadily improving over the last few years, though there's not much to go by.
19. Columbia - Seems a bit low to me considering past placements, but I'm hesitant to rank them much higher given the improvement some of the other teams have shown.
20. Boca Raton - They've been about as strong as last year, but I rank them higher due to declines in the teams below them.
21. Fossil Ridge - Though they still won state by a higher margin, their second and third teams weren't as strong this year (last year they finished 3rd and 4th), so I don't think they'll be quite as good.
22. Bayard Rustin - Their state score shows a rather significant decline of around 30 points, so I'm hesitant to rank them higher, even though this would be the lowest placement of a PA C team since 1992.
23. IA Central - Did pretty well at invitationals (including Wright State), though they were still handily beaten by Northville and the top Ohio teams. Though they were close behind Northville at state I don't think I can put them any higher; Troy was just as close behind but finished far back at Nationals. That combined with common first-year difficulties at Nationals keeps them down here.
24. Charter of Wilmington - Their state score showed a tremendous improvement, going from 114 to 45. They could go higher than this, but I'm not going to do that without more evidence.
25. Brookwood - Consistent as always. They don't seem to be having an especially good or bad year, and should finish in the usual range. This is about where I'd say the unusual competitiveness of Nationals this year ends (perhaps one or two teams up).
26. Pembroke Hill - Honestly I have no idea where to place them. They've been in this range for a while though, and their Nationals placement doesn't seem to correlate much with state scores.
27. Camas - The onetime threat to finish in the top ten is no longer as strong, but should be good enough to manage top thirty at least.
28. Auburn - This being probably Auburn's strongest team ever (the same group that finished 10th in Div B 3 years ago), they should do well. They don't quite appear to have sandbagged their builds at MIT (as is common for them), but they definitely weren't at peak strength (for one, they didn't medal in Towers).
29. NCSSM - They appear to have an especially strong team this year, but will have to pass the same hurdles as other NC teams (an especially tall task in Div C, where NC replaces five events).
30. Lincoln Southwest - Ever since their sudden rise two years ago they've been in the 20th-30th range, though it's hard to tell if this was temporary or is going to continue.

Honorable Mentions: Olathe North, Medford, Enloe, Centennial, Fairfax, and possibly duPont Manual (unsure).
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby John Richardsim » May 1st, 2017, 4:11 pm

Unome wrote:Honorable Mentions:...TJHSST

You mean Farifax?
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Adi1008 » May 1st, 2017, 4:33 pm

John Richardsim wrote:
Unome wrote:Honorable Mentions:...TJHSST

You mean Farifax?

VA Division C

TJHSST got 2nd, Fairfax got 1st
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Unome » May 1st, 2017, 4:37 pm

Adi1008 wrote:
John Richardsim wrote:
Unome wrote:Honorable Mentions:...TJHSST

You mean Farifax?

VA Division C

TJHSST got 2nd, Fairfax got 1st

Lol, sorry; I did mean Fairfax (don't know why I thought it was TJ...)
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