Way Too Early Predictions

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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Unome » February 21st, 2017, 3:11 pm

Ashernoel wrote:
LowEntropy wrote:Figured I'd share my list. I haven't done many predictions before so this is largely based off of last year's Nationals results.
  1. Troy
  2. Seven Lakes
  3. Mira Loma
  4. Harriton
  5. Centreville
  6. Adlai E. Stevenson
  7. Solon
  8. LASA
  9. Northville
  10. Mounds View
  11. New Trier
  12. Acton-Boxborough
  13. Chattahoochee
  14. Fayetteville-Manlius
  15. West Windsor Plainsboro North
  16. Bayard Rustin
  17. Boca Raton
  18. Columbia
  19. Carmel
  20. Iolani
Good but Illinois is too high, and Solon is farrr too low
I wouldn't quite say the IL teams are too high, but I agree that Solon will probably do better than 7th.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Ashernoel » February 21st, 2017, 3:29 pm

Unome wrote:
Ashernoel wrote:
LowEntropy wrote:Figured I'd share my list. I haven't done many predictions before so this is largely based off of last year's Nationals results.
  1. Troy
  2. Seven Lakes
  3. Mira Loma
  4. Harriton
  5. Centreville
  6. Adlai E. Stevenson
  7. Solon
  8. LASA
  9. Northville
  10. Mounds View
  11. New Trier
  12. Acton-Boxborough
  13. Chattahoochee
  14. Fayetteville-Manlius
  15. West Windsor Plainsboro North
  16. Bayard Rustin
  17. Boca Raton
  18. Columbia
  19. Carmel
  20. Iolani
Good but Illinois is too high, and Solon is farrr too low
I wouldn't quite say the IL teams are too high, but I agree that Solon will probably do better than 7th.
Loyola this weekend will be a valuable metric of comparing Illinois teams to each other and to a few out of state teams.
Last edited by Ashernoel on February 22nd, 2017, 3:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by 4Head » February 22nd, 2017, 3:19 pm

Ashernoel wrote:
Unome wrote:
Ashernoel wrote:
Good but Illinois is too high, and Solon is farrr too low
I wouldn't quite say the IL teams are too high, but I agree that Solon will probably do better than 7th.
Loyola this weekend will be a valuable metric of comparing Illinois teams to each other and to a few out of state teams. (Mentor?)
Don't quote me, but I believe Mentor has their regionals this weekend.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Ashernoel » February 22nd, 2017, 3:37 pm

4Head wrote:
Ashernoel wrote:
Unome wrote: I wouldn't quite say the IL teams are too high, but I agree that Solon will probably do better than 7th.
Loyola this weekend will be a valuable metric of comparing Illinois teams to each other and to a few out of state teams. (Mentor?)
Don't quote me, but I believe Mentor has their regionals this weekend.
Oh wow, good luck to them! **fixed
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Private Wang Fire » February 22nd, 2017, 7:26 pm

Ashernoel wrote:
Private Wang Fire wrote:
There's Centerville too! They haven't been to many invites this year, but they looked quite strong at Wright State without a full team, even.

I feel like everyone always forgets Centerville. They've qualified to nats for the last 15 years (altho that's a streak we can hopefully break :) )
There is centerville, but at Wright state both of your split astro teams managed to run away with the victory (1st and second) in Astro against our split team. You dominated UPenn, and Centerville has been meh.
I think Centerville is still running strong this year, much better than most people have been ranking them. I heard they had less than a full team at Wright State, and still managed to place ahead of us overall. While I do agree our Penn results seem impressive, I'm not sure how well they'll translate back in-state, and the strength of our longtime in-state overlords is not to be understimated :D
Unome wrote: I give it 2 to 1, no team is that secure. Last year at this point, everyone was sure Troy would win.
Wouldn't 5 to 1 be lower odds than 2 to 1? If it's 5 to 1 odds on Troy winning?

Anyways, my pick to win nats would be Troy as well, with top 5 probably looking something like -

1. Troy
2. Solon
3. Mira Loma
4. Seven Lakes
5. Northville/Harriton/IL Team #1 (leaning towards Northville)
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by breakingankles » February 22nd, 2017, 7:48 pm

I think as good as Mira Loma and Solon appear to be at times, Troy is absolutely dominant. I can't see a way any team overtakes them. I'd be surprised if they don't win nationals by at least 50 points.

1. Troy, by far (I think they'll medal in >16 events)
2. Solon
3. Mira Loma
4. Harriton
5. Centerville
6. LASA/Clements/Seven Lakes
7. LASA/Clements/Seven Lakes
8. Northville
9. Mounds View
10. Adlai E. Stevenson

Other candidates for top 10: Acton-Boxborough, New Trier, whichever team makes it out of New Jersey,

As for PA team #2 - Bayard Rustin is looking extremely weak this year. I think Conestoga will go to nationals this year. For Indiana, I think Carmel will narrowly edge out Munster

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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Alex-RCHS » February 22nd, 2017, 8:28 pm

Private Wang Fire wrote:
Ashernoel wrote:
Private Wang Fire wrote:
There's Centerville too! They haven't been to many invites this year, but they looked quite strong at Wright State without a full team, even.

I feel like everyone always forgets Centerville. They've qualified to nats for the last 15 years (altho that's a streak we can hopefully break :) )
There is centerville, but at Wright state both of your split astro teams managed to run away with the victory (1st and second) in Astro against our split team. You dominated UPenn, and Centerville has been meh.
I think Centerville is still running strong this year, much better than most people have been ranking them. I heard they had less than a full team at Wright State, and still managed to place ahead of us overall. While I do agree our Penn results seem impressive, I'm not sure how well they'll translate back in-state, and the strength of our longtime in-state overlords is not to be understimated :D
Unome wrote: I give it 2 to 1, no team is that secure. Last year at this point, everyone was sure Troy would win.
Wouldn't 5 to 1 be lower odds than 2 to 1? If it's 5 to 1 odds on Troy winning?

Anyways, my pick to win nats would be Troy as well, with top 5 probably looking something like -

1. Troy
2. Solon
3. Mira Loma
4. Seven Lakes
5. Northville/Harriton/IL Team #1 (leaning towards Northville)
I think 5 to 1 odds means that their chance of winning is 5 times greater than their chance of not winning. (But I could be wrong) So an 83% chance. I'm assuming you meant the opposite, 17%.

I would put it at around a 50-60% chance of them winning, ~80% of being in the top 2. There's just so much that can go wrong at any tournament (WIDI and Copters, namely) to put any teams odds crazy high. Not to mention that even in a strong year for Troy, the competition is always super tough.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by NeilMehta » February 23rd, 2017, 8:34 am

Unome wrote:Rather difficult to do in some places (e.g. as far as I know Fossil Ridge has yet competed this year).

Div B:
  1. Beckendorff
  2. Solon
  3. Meads Mill
  4. Daniel Wright
  5. Kennedy/Churchill
  6. Piedmont
  7. Tower Heights/Magsig
  8. Springhouse
  9. Marie Murphy
  10. Gelinas
  11. Lakeshore
  12. Longfellow
  13. Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
  14. WW-P Community
  15. Eagle Hill
  16. Ladue
  17. Dodgen
  18. Auburn
  19. Pembroke Hill
  20. Fulton Science Academy
Div C:
  1. Troy
  2. Seven Lakes
  3. Solon
  4. Harriton
  5. LASA
  6. Centerville/Mason
  7. Mira Loma (if Mountain View, 2 ranks lower)
  8. Stevenson
  9. Northville
  10. WW-P North (if Montgomery, 4 ranks lower)
  11. Acton-Boxborough
  12. New Trier
  13. Mounds View
  14. Chattahoochee
  15. Columbia
  16. Boca Raton
  17. 'Iolani
  18. Fossil Ridge
  19. Munster/Carmel
  20. Ladue
Dang, not even putting Melville in 20th? I mean they aren't as strong as last year, but it still looks like they're going to win 1st at states
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by windu34 » February 23rd, 2017, 10:05 am

NeilMehta wrote:
Unome wrote:Rather difficult to do in some places (e.g. as far as I know Fossil Ridge has yet competed this year).

Div B:
  1. Beckendorff
  2. Solon
  3. Meads Mill
  4. Daniel Wright
  5. Kennedy/Churchill
  6. Piedmont
  7. Tower Heights/Magsig
  8. Springhouse
  9. Marie Murphy
  10. Gelinas
  11. Lakeshore
  12. Longfellow
  13. Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
  14. WW-P Community
  15. Eagle Hill
  16. Ladue
  17. Dodgen
  18. Auburn
  19. Pembroke Hill
  20. Fulton Science Academy
Div C:
  1. Troy
  2. Seven Lakes
  3. Solon
  4. Harriton
  5. LASA
  6. Centerville/Mason
  7. Mira Loma (if Mountain View, 2 ranks lower)
  8. Stevenson
  9. Northville
  10. WW-P North (if Montgomery, 4 ranks lower)
  11. Acton-Boxborough
  12. New Trier
  13. Mounds View
  14. Chattahoochee
  15. Columbia
  16. Boca Raton
  17. 'Iolani
  18. Fossil Ridge
  19. Munster/Carmel
  20. Ladue
Dang, not even putting Melville in 20th? I mean they aren't as strong as last year, but it still looks like they're going to win 1st at states
You think that despite the results of the recent Princeton invitational? Their study events looked weak which is hard to recover
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by NeilMehta » February 23rd, 2017, 10:16 am

windu34 wrote:
NeilMehta wrote:
Unome wrote:Rather difficult to do in some places (e.g. as far as I know Fossil Ridge has yet competed this year).

Div B:
  1. Beckendorff
  2. Solon
  3. Meads Mill
  4. Daniel Wright
  5. Kennedy/Churchill
  6. Piedmont
  7. Tower Heights/Magsig
  8. Springhouse
  9. Marie Murphy
  10. Gelinas
  11. Lakeshore
  12. Longfellow
  13. Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
  14. WW-P Community
  15. Eagle Hill
  16. Ladue
  17. Dodgen
  18. Auburn
  19. Pembroke Hill
  20. Fulton Science Academy
Div C:
  1. Troy
  2. Seven Lakes
  3. Solon
  4. Harriton
  5. LASA
  6. Centerville/Mason
  7. Mira Loma (if Mountain View, 2 ranks lower)
  8. Stevenson
  9. Northville
  10. WW-P North (if Montgomery, 4 ranks lower)
  11. Acton-Boxborough
  12. New Trier
  13. Mounds View
  14. Chattahoochee
  15. Columbia
  16. Boca Raton
  17. 'Iolani
  18. Fossil Ridge
  19. Munster/Carmel
  20. Ladue
Dang, not even putting Melville in 20th? I mean they aren't as strong as last year, but it still looks like they're going to win 1st at states
You think that despite the results of the recent Princeton invitational? Their study events looked weak which is hard to recover
Yeah they definitely didn't do that well but they still seem like top 20 material
(idk if its just my bias towards WM or their actual performance :D )
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