Way Too Early Predictions

[windu34]

Allow me to present Division C, four years ago

Blowouts do happen more in Division B than C, though, so it'd be quite a feat for Troy to win by that much. I would predict them winning by about 30-35 points.

Went back and looked at their medals, they didn't get a single gold... still won by so much wow

Also note 2009 B, when Solon won by 105 points. I'm not willing to say much about Troy's chances until after state (which, I forgot to mention earlier, somewhat foreshadowed their loss at Nationals last year).

How so?

[Unome]

Went back and looked at their medals, they didn't get a single gold... still won by so much wow

Also note 2009 B, when Solon won by 105 points. I'm not willing to say much about Troy's chances until after state (which, I forgot to mention earlier, somewhat foreshadowed their loss at Nationals last year).

How so?

Apparently it was worse than usual? That's what I read, not sure whether it was all-around or a few bombs.

[LowEntropy]

Also note 2009 B, when Solon won by 105 points. I'm not willing to say much about Troy's chances until after state (which, I forgot to mention earlier, somewhat foreshadowed their loss at Nationals last year).

How so?

Apparently it was worse than usual? That's what I read, not sure whether it was all-around or a few bombs.

Their performance was worse than 2015, but there doesn't seem to be any correlation between their score at states and their performance at Nationals.

2016: 102 points at states, 4th Nationally
2015: 70, 1st
2014: 101, 1st
2013: 70, 3rd
2012: 129, 2nd
2011: 61, 4th

[EastStroudsburg13]

I wouldn't say that Troy's performance foreshadowed their loss as much as Mira Loma's performance foreshadowed their win. They completely and utterly dominated.

[windu34]

I wouldn't say that Troy's performance foreshadowed their loss as much as Mira Loma's performance foreshadowed their win. They completely and utterly dominated.

Not really more than past years:
2014: 4th at nats, 57 points at states
2015: 2nd at nats, 50 points at states
2016: 1st at nats, 54 points at states

[EastStroudsburg13]

Hmm, that's true. The 2014 score was with a 24-team field, but both 2015 and 2016 had 28-team fields, so they should have been at approximately the same level if going purely by states scores. Perhaps Troy going from 70 to 102 was indeed the better indicator.

[kenniky]

Maybe there is no indicator ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Alex-RCHS]

Maybe there is no indicator ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I agree. Scioly Tournaments are very volatile.

I think part of why Mira Loma and Harriton succeeded is because neither of them had any bad events (the worst score between the two of them was 32). Troy had low scores in Wright Stuff (49) and WIDI (53), which are both events that can go very well or very poorly, regardless of preparation.

[EastStroudsburg13]

If there was no indicator, my computer rankings wouldn't have spit out Mira Loma at first place before nationals last year.

[pikachu4919]

I wouldn't say that Troy's performance foreshadowed their loss as much as Mira Loma's performance foreshadowed their win. They completely and utterly dominated.

Not really more than past years:
2014: 4th at nats, 57 points at states
2015: 2nd at nats, 50 points at states
2016: 1st at nats, 54 points at states

I thought Troy's score at SoCal's states last year was 102 or something near that