Way Too Early Predictions
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions
I think as good as Mira Loma and Solon appear to be at times, Troy is absolutely dominant. I can't see a way any team overtakes them. I'd be surprised if they don't win nationals by at least 50 points.
1. Troy, by far (I think they'll medal in >16 events)
2. Solon
3. Mira Loma
4. Harriton
5. Centerville
6. LASA/Clements/Seven Lakes
7. LASA/Clements/Seven Lakes
8. Northville
9. Mounds View
10. Adlai E. Stevenson
Other candidates for top 10: Acton-Boxborough, New Trier, whichever team makes it out of New Jersey,
As for PA team #2 - Bayard Rustin is looking extremely weak this year. I think Conestoga will go to nationals this year. For Indiana, I think Carmel will narrowly edge out Munster
1. Troy, by far (I think they'll medal in >16 events)
2. Solon
3. Mira Loma
4. Harriton
5. Centerville
6. LASA/Clements/Seven Lakes
7. LASA/Clements/Seven Lakes
8. Northville
9. Mounds View
10. Adlai E. Stevenson
Other candidates for top 10: Acton-Boxborough, New Trier, whichever team makes it out of New Jersey,
As for PA team #2 - Bayard Rustin is looking extremely weak this year. I think Conestoga will go to nationals this year. For Indiana, I think Carmel will narrowly edge out Munster
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions
I think 5 to 1 odds means that their chance of winning is 5 times greater than their chance of not winning. (But I could be wrong) So an 83% chance. I'm assuming you meant the opposite, 17%.Private Wang Fire wrote:I think Centerville is still running strong this year, much better than most people have been ranking them. I heard they had less than a full team at Wright State, and still managed to place ahead of us overall. While I do agree our Penn results seem impressive, I'm not sure how well they'll translate back in-state, and the strength of our longtime in-state overlords is not to be understimatedAshernoel wrote:There is centerville, but at Wright state both of your split astro teams managed to run away with the victory (1st and second) in Astro against our split team. You dominated UPenn, and Centerville has been meh.Private Wang Fire wrote:
There's Centerville too! They haven't been to many invites this year, but they looked quite strong at Wright State without a full team, even.
I feel like everyone always forgets Centerville. They've qualified to nats for the last 15 years (altho that's a streak we can hopefully break )
Wouldn't 5 to 1 be lower odds than 2 to 1? If it's 5 to 1 odds on Troy winning?Unome wrote: I give it 2 to 1, no team is that secure. Last year at this point, everyone was sure Troy would win.
Anyways, my pick to win nats would be Troy as well, with top 5 probably looking something like -
1. Troy
2. Solon
3. Mira Loma
4. Seven Lakes
5. Northville/Harriton/IL Team #1 (leaning towards Northville)
I would put it at around a 50-60% chance of them winning, ~80% of being in the top 2. There's just so much that can go wrong at any tournament (WIDI and Copters, namely) to put any teams odds crazy high. Not to mention that even in a strong year for Troy, the competition is always super tough.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions
Dang, not even putting Melville in 20th? I mean they aren't as strong as last year, but it still looks like they're going to win 1st at statesUnome wrote:Rather difficult to do in some places (e.g. as far as I know Fossil Ridge has yet competed this year).
Div B:Div C:
- Beckendorff
- Solon
- Meads Mill
- Daniel Wright
- Kennedy/Churchill
- Piedmont
- Tower Heights/Magsig
- Springhouse
- Marie Murphy
- Gelinas
- Lakeshore
- Longfellow
- Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
- WW-P Community
- Eagle Hill
- Ladue
- Dodgen
- Auburn
- Pembroke Hill
- Fulton Science Academy
- Troy
- Seven Lakes
- Solon
- Harriton
- LASA
- Centerville/Mason
- Mira Loma (if Mountain View, 2 ranks lower)
- Stevenson
- Northville
- WW-P North (if Montgomery, 4 ranks lower)
- Acton-Boxborough
- New Trier
- Mounds View
- Chattahoochee
- Columbia
- Boca Raton
- 'Iolani
- Fossil Ridge
- Munster/Carmel
- Ladue
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions
You think that despite the results of the recent Princeton invitational? Their study events looked weak which is hard to recoverNeilMehta wrote:Dang, not even putting Melville in 20th? I mean they aren't as strong as last year, but it still looks like they're going to win 1st at statesUnome wrote:Rather difficult to do in some places (e.g. as far as I know Fossil Ridge has yet competed this year).
Div B:Div C:
- Beckendorff
- Solon
- Meads Mill
- Daniel Wright
- Kennedy/Churchill
- Piedmont
- Tower Heights/Magsig
- Springhouse
- Marie Murphy
- Gelinas
- Lakeshore
- Longfellow
- Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
- WW-P Community
- Eagle Hill
- Ladue
- Dodgen
- Auburn
- Pembroke Hill
- Fulton Science Academy
- Troy
- Seven Lakes
- Solon
- Harriton
- LASA
- Centerville/Mason
- Mira Loma (if Mountain View, 2 ranks lower)
- Stevenson
- Northville
- WW-P North (if Montgomery, 4 ranks lower)
- Acton-Boxborough
- New Trier
- Mounds View
- Chattahoochee
- Columbia
- Boca Raton
- 'Iolani
- Fossil Ridge
- Munster/Carmel
- Ladue
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions
Yeah they definitely didn't do that well but they still seem like top 20 materialwindu34 wrote:You think that despite the results of the recent Princeton invitational? Their study events looked weak which is hard to recoverNeilMehta wrote:Dang, not even putting Melville in 20th? I mean they aren't as strong as last year, but it still looks like they're going to win 1st at statesUnome wrote:Rather difficult to do in some places (e.g. as far as I know Fossil Ridge has yet competed this year).
Div B:Div C:
- Beckendorff
- Solon
- Meads Mill
- Daniel Wright
- Kennedy/Churchill
- Piedmont
- Tower Heights/Magsig
- Springhouse
- Marie Murphy
- Gelinas
- Lakeshore
- Longfellow
- Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
- WW-P Community
- Eagle Hill
- Ladue
- Dodgen
- Auburn
- Pembroke Hill
- Fulton Science Academy
- Troy
- Seven Lakes
- Solon
- Harriton
- LASA
- Centerville/Mason
- Mira Loma (if Mountain View, 2 ranks lower)
- Stevenson
- Northville
- WW-P North (if Montgomery, 4 ranks lower)
- Acton-Boxborough
- New Trier
- Mounds View
- Chattahoochee
- Columbia
- Boca Raton
- 'Iolani
- Fossil Ridge
- Munster/Carmel
- Ladue
(idk if its just my bias towards WM or their actual performance )
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions
I disagree somewhat; I think Columbia has to be the favorite right now. I definitely think Ward's hovering around the 20th mark for nationals predictions; I wouldn't blame anyone for including them or leaving them out.NeilMehta wrote: Dang, not even putting Melville in 20th? I mean they aren't as strong as last year, but it still looks like they're going to win 1st at states
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions
They also still need to make it out of NY StateEastStroudsburg13 wrote:I disagree somewhat; I think Columbia has to be the favorite right now. I definitely think Ward's hovering around the 20th mark for nationals predictions; I wouldn't blame anyone for including them or leaving them out.NeilMehta wrote: Dang, not even putting Melville in 20th? I mean they aren't as strong as last year, but it still looks like they're going to win 1st at states
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions
Im pretty sure they're going to at least make nationals; we aren't too worried about that...windu34 wrote:They also still need to make it out of NY StateEastStroudsburg13 wrote:I disagree somewhat; I think Columbia has to be the favorite right now. I definitely think Ward's hovering around the 20th mark for nationals predictions; I wouldn't blame anyone for including them or leaving them out.NeilMehta wrote: Dang, not even putting Melville in 20th? I mean they aren't as strong as last year, but it still looks like they're going to win 1st at states
The concern is more how well WM is going to do past that point
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions
Considering that F-M is still doing pretty well (and has historically gotten better throughout the season), and GNS is also doing well, it's definitely not a given.NeilMehta wrote:Im pretty sure they're going to at least make nationals; we aren't too worried about that...windu34 wrote:They also still need to make it out of NY StateEastStroudsburg13 wrote: I disagree somewhat; I think Columbia has to be the favorite right now. I definitely think Ward's hovering around the 20th mark for nationals predictions; I wouldn't blame anyone for including them or leaving them out.
The concern is more how well WM is going to do past that point
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions
Maybe I'm going crazy, but I don't see Ward Melville on the Princeton results sheet. http://www.princeton.edu/~scioly/
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