I wouldn't quite say the IL teams are too high, but I agree that Solon will probably do better than 7th.Ashernoel wrote:Good but Illinois is too high, and Solon is farrr too lowLowEntropy wrote:Figured I'd share my list. I haven't done many predictions before so this is largely based off of last year's Nationals results.
- Troy
- Seven Lakes
- Mira Loma
- Harriton
- Centreville
- Adlai E. Stevenson
- Solon
- LASA
- Northville
- Mounds View
- New Trier
- Acton-Boxborough
- Chattahoochee
- Fayetteville-Manlius
- West Windsor Plainsboro North
- Bayard Rustin
- Boca Raton
- Columbia
- Carmel
- Iolani
Way Too Early Predictions
- Unome
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions
- Ashernoel
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions
Loyola this weekend will be a valuable metric of comparing Illinois teams to each other and to a few out of state teams.Unome wrote:I wouldn't quite say the IL teams are too high, but I agree that Solon will probably do better than 7th.Ashernoel wrote:Good but Illinois is too high, and Solon is farrr too lowLowEntropy wrote:Figured I'd share my list. I haven't done many predictions before so this is largely based off of last year's Nationals results.
- Troy
- Seven Lakes
- Mira Loma
- Harriton
- Centreville
- Adlai E. Stevenson
- Solon
- LASA
- Northville
- Mounds View
- New Trier
- Acton-Boxborough
- Chattahoochee
- Fayetteville-Manlius
- West Windsor Plainsboro North
- Bayard Rustin
- Boca Raton
- Columbia
- Carmel
- Iolani
Last edited by Ashernoel on February 22nd, 2017, 3:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Harvard '23
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions
Don't quote me, but I believe Mentor has their regionals this weekend.Ashernoel wrote:Loyola this weekend will be a valuable metric of comparing Illinois teams to each other and to a few out of state teams. (Mentor?)Unome wrote:I wouldn't quite say the IL teams are too high, but I agree that Solon will probably do better than 7th.Ashernoel wrote:
Good but Illinois is too high, and Solon is farrr too low
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- Ashernoel
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions
Oh wow, good luck to them! **fixed4Head wrote:Don't quote me, but I believe Mentor has their regionals this weekend.Ashernoel wrote:Loyola this weekend will be a valuable metric of comparing Illinois teams to each other and to a few out of state teams. (Mentor?)Unome wrote: I wouldn't quite say the IL teams are too high, but I agree that Solon will probably do better than 7th.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions
I think Centerville is still running strong this year, much better than most people have been ranking them. I heard they had less than a full team at Wright State, and still managed to place ahead of us overall. While I do agree our Penn results seem impressive, I'm not sure how well they'll translate back in-state, and the strength of our longtime in-state overlords is not to be understimatedAshernoel wrote:There is centerville, but at Wright state both of your split astro teams managed to run away with the victory (1st and second) in Astro against our split team. You dominated UPenn, and Centerville has been meh.Private Wang Fire wrote:
There's Centerville too! They haven't been to many invites this year, but they looked quite strong at Wright State without a full team, even.
I feel like everyone always forgets Centerville. They've qualified to nats for the last 15 years (altho that's a streak we can hopefully break )
Wouldn't 5 to 1 be lower odds than 2 to 1? If it's 5 to 1 odds on Troy winning?Unome wrote: I give it 2 to 1, no team is that secure. Last year at this point, everyone was sure Troy would win.
Anyways, my pick to win nats would be Troy as well, with top 5 probably looking something like -
1. Troy
2. Solon
3. Mira Loma
4. Seven Lakes
5. Northville/Harriton/IL Team #1 (leaning towards Northville)
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions
I think as good as Mira Loma and Solon appear to be at times, Troy is absolutely dominant. I can't see a way any team overtakes them. I'd be surprised if they don't win nationals by at least 50 points.
1. Troy, by far (I think they'll medal in >16 events)
2. Solon
3. Mira Loma
4. Harriton
5. Centerville
6. LASA/Clements/Seven Lakes
7. LASA/Clements/Seven Lakes
8. Northville
9. Mounds View
10. Adlai E. Stevenson
Other candidates for top 10: Acton-Boxborough, New Trier, whichever team makes it out of New Jersey,
As for PA team #2 - Bayard Rustin is looking extremely weak this year. I think Conestoga will go to nationals this year. For Indiana, I think Carmel will narrowly edge out Munster
1. Troy, by far (I think they'll medal in >16 events)
2. Solon
3. Mira Loma
4. Harriton
5. Centerville
6. LASA/Clements/Seven Lakes
7. LASA/Clements/Seven Lakes
8. Northville
9. Mounds View
10. Adlai E. Stevenson
Other candidates for top 10: Acton-Boxborough, New Trier, whichever team makes it out of New Jersey,
As for PA team #2 - Bayard Rustin is looking extremely weak this year. I think Conestoga will go to nationals this year. For Indiana, I think Carmel will narrowly edge out Munster
- Alex-RCHS
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions
I think 5 to 1 odds means that their chance of winning is 5 times greater than their chance of not winning. (But I could be wrong) So an 83% chance. I'm assuming you meant the opposite, 17%.Private Wang Fire wrote:I think Centerville is still running strong this year, much better than most people have been ranking them. I heard they had less than a full team at Wright State, and still managed to place ahead of us overall. While I do agree our Penn results seem impressive, I'm not sure how well they'll translate back in-state, and the strength of our longtime in-state overlords is not to be understimatedAshernoel wrote:There is centerville, but at Wright state both of your split astro teams managed to run away with the victory (1st and second) in Astro against our split team. You dominated UPenn, and Centerville has been meh.Private Wang Fire wrote:
There's Centerville too! They haven't been to many invites this year, but they looked quite strong at Wright State without a full team, even.
I feel like everyone always forgets Centerville. They've qualified to nats for the last 15 years (altho that's a streak we can hopefully break )
Wouldn't 5 to 1 be lower odds than 2 to 1? If it's 5 to 1 odds on Troy winning?Unome wrote: I give it 2 to 1, no team is that secure. Last year at this point, everyone was sure Troy would win.
Anyways, my pick to win nats would be Troy as well, with top 5 probably looking something like -
1. Troy
2. Solon
3. Mira Loma
4. Seven Lakes
5. Northville/Harriton/IL Team #1 (leaning towards Northville)
I would put it at around a 50-60% chance of them winning, ~80% of being in the top 2. There's just so much that can go wrong at any tournament (WIDI and Copters, namely) to put any teams odds crazy high. Not to mention that even in a strong year for Troy, the competition is always super tough.
- NeilMehta
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions
Dang, not even putting Melville in 20th? I mean they aren't as strong as last year, but it still looks like they're going to win 1st at statesUnome wrote:Rather difficult to do in some places (e.g. as far as I know Fossil Ridge has yet competed this year).
Div B:Div C:
- Beckendorff
- Solon
- Meads Mill
- Daniel Wright
- Kennedy/Churchill
- Piedmont
- Tower Heights/Magsig
- Springhouse
- Marie Murphy
- Gelinas
- Lakeshore
- Longfellow
- Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
- WW-P Community
- Eagle Hill
- Ladue
- Dodgen
- Auburn
- Pembroke Hill
- Fulton Science Academy
- Troy
- Seven Lakes
- Solon
- Harriton
- LASA
- Centerville/Mason
- Mira Loma (if Mountain View, 2 ranks lower)
- Stevenson
- Northville
- WW-P North (if Montgomery, 4 ranks lower)
- Acton-Boxborough
- New Trier
- Mounds View
- Chattahoochee
- Columbia
- Boca Raton
- 'Iolani
- Fossil Ridge
- Munster/Carmel
- Ladue
i can't feel my arms wtf i think i'm turning into a lamp
voted least likely to sleep 2018, most likely to sleep in class 2017+2018, biggest procrastinator 2018
voted least likely to sleep 2018, most likely to sleep in class 2017+2018, biggest procrastinator 2018
- windu34
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions
You think that despite the results of the recent Princeton invitational? Their study events looked weak which is hard to recoverNeilMehta wrote:Dang, not even putting Melville in 20th? I mean they aren't as strong as last year, but it still looks like they're going to win 1st at statesUnome wrote:Rather difficult to do in some places (e.g. as far as I know Fossil Ridge has yet competed this year).
Div B:Div C:
- Beckendorff
- Solon
- Meads Mill
- Daniel Wright
- Kennedy/Churchill
- Piedmont
- Tower Heights/Magsig
- Springhouse
- Marie Murphy
- Gelinas
- Lakeshore
- Longfellow
- Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
- WW-P Community
- Eagle Hill
- Ladue
- Dodgen
- Auburn
- Pembroke Hill
- Fulton Science Academy
- Troy
- Seven Lakes
- Solon
- Harriton
- LASA
- Centerville/Mason
- Mira Loma (if Mountain View, 2 ranks lower)
- Stevenson
- Northville
- WW-P North (if Montgomery, 4 ranks lower)
- Acton-Boxborough
- New Trier
- Mounds View
- Chattahoochee
- Columbia
- Boca Raton
- 'Iolani
- Fossil Ridge
- Munster/Carmel
- Ladue
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- NeilMehta
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions
Yeah they definitely didn't do that well but they still seem like top 20 materialwindu34 wrote:You think that despite the results of the recent Princeton invitational? Their study events looked weak which is hard to recoverNeilMehta wrote:Dang, not even putting Melville in 20th? I mean they aren't as strong as last year, but it still looks like they're going to win 1st at statesUnome wrote:Rather difficult to do in some places (e.g. as far as I know Fossil Ridge has yet competed this year).
Div B:Div C:
- Beckendorff
- Solon
- Meads Mill
- Daniel Wright
- Kennedy/Churchill
- Piedmont
- Tower Heights/Magsig
- Springhouse
- Marie Murphy
- Gelinas
- Lakeshore
- Longfellow
- Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
- WW-P Community
- Eagle Hill
- Ladue
- Dodgen
- Auburn
- Pembroke Hill
- Fulton Science Academy
- Troy
- Seven Lakes
- Solon
- Harriton
- LASA
- Centerville/Mason
- Mira Loma (if Mountain View, 2 ranks lower)
- Stevenson
- Northville
- WW-P North (if Montgomery, 4 ranks lower)
- Acton-Boxborough
- New Trier
- Mounds View
- Chattahoochee
- Columbia
- Boca Raton
- 'Iolani
- Fossil Ridge
- Munster/Carmel
- Ladue
(idk if its just my bias towards WM or their actual performance )
i can't feel my arms wtf i think i'm turning into a lamp
voted least likely to sleep 2018, most likely to sleep in class 2017+2018, biggest procrastinator 2018
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