Way Too Early Predictions

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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by DankMemes » February 23rd, 2017, 9:04 pm

texas wrote:
y1008083 wrote:Beckendorff that high?
They got 1st at Wright State, which is basically the hardest, most competitive tournament after nats, so I'd say 1st at nats is a pretty good prediction.
While that is a feasible prediction, you have to consider that Solon did not stack their teams, but Beckendorff did. In addition, Daniel Wright did not attend, so you have to consider them too.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Unome » February 24th, 2017, 5:17 am

DankMemes wrote:
texas wrote:
y1008083 wrote:Beckendorff that high?
They got 1st at Wright State, which is basically the hardest, most competitive tournament after nats, so I'd say 1st at nats is a pretty good prediction.
While that is a feasible prediction, you have to consider that Solon did not stack their teams, but Beckendorff did. In addition, Daniel Wright did not attend, so you have to consider them too.
Looking at the scores from Wright State, while Solon's B team might have beaten the A team in a few events, it's unlikely that they didn't make an attempt to stack as best they could (note Beckendorff's second team also beat their main team in a few events). Regarding Daniel Wright, all we have on them so far is a loss to Kennedy at Mira Loma. If they're at New Albany again, we should have some more info after this weekend (since Solon and Tower Heights usually attend as well).
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by 4Head » February 24th, 2017, 5:21 am

Unome wrote:
DankMemes wrote:
texas wrote:
They got 1st at Wright State, which is basically the hardest, most competitive tournament after nats, so I'd say 1st at nats is a pretty good prediction.
While that is a feasible prediction, you have to consider that Solon did not stack their teams, but Beckendorff did. In addition, Daniel Wright did not attend, so you have to consider them too.
Looking at the scores from Wright State, while Solon's B team might have beaten the A team in a few events, it's unlikely that they didn't make an attempt to stack as best they could (note Beckendorff's second team also beat their main team in a few events). Regarding Daniel Wright, all we have on them so far is a loss to Kennedy at Mira Loma. If they're at New Albany again, we should have some more info after this weekend (since Solon and Tower Heights usually attend as well).
Yeah, judging from the scores it's quite apparent that Solon stacked their teams for the tournament. Last year Solon brought 2 teams to regionals, so they might not be going to New Albany.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by LowEntropy » February 24th, 2017, 5:45 am

John Richardsim wrote:
NeilMehta wrote:just found out FM didn't qualify for nationals last year??
does anyone know what happened?
Uh, as vague as it may sound, I'm guessing that they just collectively didn't do well enough. That's how it was for my team, at least.

Nothing in particular needs to "happen" for a historically strong team to miss nationals. Just gotta be less strong in a particular year than two other teams in your state (or three...).
This is mostly speculation but looking at last year's results it looks like there were some issues with their builds, notably Air Trajectory (26), Electric Vehicle (32) and Wright Stuff (28).
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by EastStroudsburg13 » February 24th, 2017, 7:28 am

4Head wrote:
Unome wrote:
DankMemes wrote:
While that is a feasible prediction, you have to consider that Solon did not stack their teams, but Beckendorff did. In addition, Daniel Wright did not attend, so you have to consider them too.
Looking at the scores from Wright State, while Solon's B team might have beaten the A team in a few events, it's unlikely that they didn't make an attempt to stack as best they could (note Beckendorff's second team also beat their main team in a few events). Regarding Daniel Wright, all we have on them so far is a loss to Kennedy at Mira Loma. If they're at New Albany again, we should have some more info after this weekend (since Solon and Tower Heights usually attend as well).
This is, essentially my reasoning. However, regarding Daniel Wright, we also have their 7-point victory over Solon at the Solon Invitational. Is that enough to rank them above Solon? Maybe, I wouldn't blame you for doing so. But I'd like to see at least one more strong result from them.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by pikachu4919 » February 24th, 2017, 7:48 am

breakingankles wrote:I think as good as Mira Loma and Solon appear to be at times, Troy is absolutely dominant. I can't see a way any team overtakes them. I'd be surprised if they don't win nationals by at least 50 points.
50 points is probably an overstatement. It's honestly super unlikely that any team, even Troy, would finish THAT far ahead of the team below them.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by EastStroudsburg13 » February 24th, 2017, 8:08 am

pikachu4919 wrote:
breakingankles wrote:I think as good as Mira Loma and Solon appear to be at times, Troy is absolutely dominant. I can't see a way any team overtakes them. I'd be surprised if they don't win nationals by at least 50 points.
50 points is probably an overstatement. It's honestly super unlikely that any team, even Troy, would finish THAT far ahead of the team below them.
Allow me to present Division C, four years ago

Blowouts do happen more in Division B than C, though, so it'd be quite a feat for Troy to win by that much. I would predict them winning by about 30-35 points.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by kenniky » February 24th, 2017, 8:17 am

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:
pikachu4919 wrote:
breakingankles wrote:I think as good as Mira Loma and Solon appear to be at times, Troy is absolutely dominant. I can't see a way any team overtakes them. I'd be surprised if they don't win nationals by at least 50 points.
50 points is probably an overstatement. It's honestly super unlikely that any team, even Troy, would finish THAT far ahead of the team below them.
Allow me to present Division C, four years ago

Blowouts do happen more in Division B than C, though, so it'd be quite a feat for Troy to win by that much. I would predict them winning by about 30-35 points.
Went back and looked at their medals, they didn't get a single gold... still won by so much wow
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Unome » February 24th, 2017, 8:53 am

kenniky wrote:
EastStroudsburg13 wrote:
pikachu4919 wrote:
50 points is probably an overstatement. It's honestly super unlikely that any team, even Troy, would finish THAT far ahead of the team below them.
Allow me to present Division C, four years ago

Blowouts do happen more in Division B than C, though, so it'd be quite a feat for Troy to win by that much. I would predict them winning by about 30-35 points.
Went back and looked at their medals, they didn't get a single gold... still won by so much wow
Also note 2009 B, when Solon won by 105 points. I'm not willing to say much about Troy's chances until after state (which, I forgot to mention earlier, somewhat foreshadowed their loss at Nationals last year).
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by pikachu4919 » February 24th, 2017, 9:35 am

OK...in that case...
pikachu4919 wrote: 50 points is probably an overstatement. It's honestly super somewhat unlikely that any team, even Troy, would finish THAT far ahead of the team below them.
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