Way Too Early Predictions

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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by windu34 » February 24th, 2017, 12:34 pm

Unome wrote:
kenniky wrote:
EastStroudsburg13 wrote: Allow me to present Division C, four years ago

Blowouts do happen more in Division B than C, though, so it'd be quite a feat for Troy to win by that much. I would predict them winning by about 30-35 points.
Went back and looked at their medals, they didn't get a single gold... still won by so much wow
Also note 2009 B, when Solon won by 105 points. I'm not willing to say much about Troy's chances until after state (which, I forgot to mention earlier, somewhat foreshadowed their loss at Nationals last year).
How so?
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Unome » February 24th, 2017, 1:09 pm

windu34 wrote:
Unome wrote:
kenniky wrote: Went back and looked at their medals, they didn't get a single gold... still won by so much wow
Also note 2009 B, when Solon won by 105 points. I'm not willing to say much about Troy's chances until after state (which, I forgot to mention earlier, somewhat foreshadowed their loss at Nationals last year).
How so?
Apparently it was worse than usual? That's what I read, not sure whether it was all-around or a few bombs.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by LowEntropy » February 24th, 2017, 5:43 pm

Unome wrote:
windu34 wrote:
Unome wrote: Also note 2009 B, when Solon won by 105 points. I'm not willing to say much about Troy's chances until after state (which, I forgot to mention earlier, somewhat foreshadowed their loss at Nationals last year).
How so?
Apparently it was worse than usual? That's what I read, not sure whether it was all-around or a few bombs.
Their performance was worse than 2015, but there doesn't seem to be any correlation between their score at states and their performance at Nationals.

2016: 102 points at states, 4th Nationally
2015: 70, 1st
2014: 101, 1st
2013: 70, 3rd
2012: 129, 2nd
2011: 61, 4th
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by EastStroudsburg13 » February 24th, 2017, 7:46 pm

I wouldn't say that Troy's performance foreshadowed their loss as much as Mira Loma's performance foreshadowed their win. They completely and utterly dominated.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by windu34 » February 25th, 2017, 5:18 am

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:I wouldn't say that Troy's performance foreshadowed their loss as much as Mira Loma's performance foreshadowed their win. They completely and utterly dominated.
Not really more than past years:
2014: 4th at nats, 57 points at states
2015: 2nd at nats, 50 points at states
2016: 1st at nats, 54 points at states
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by EastStroudsburg13 » February 25th, 2017, 9:14 am

Hmm, that's true. The 2014 score was with a 24-team field, but both 2015 and 2016 had 28-team fields, so they should have been at approximately the same level if going purely by states scores. Perhaps Troy going from 70 to 102 was indeed the better indicator.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by kenniky » February 25th, 2017, 11:33 am

Maybe there is no indicator ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Alex-RCHS » February 25th, 2017, 12:12 pm

kenniky wrote:Maybe there is no indicator ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I agree. Scioly Tournaments are very volatile.

I think part of why Mira Loma and Harriton succeeded is because neither of them had any bad events (the worst score between the two of them was 32). Troy had low scores in Wright Stuff (49) and WIDI (53), which are both events that can go very well or very poorly, regardless of preparation.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by EastStroudsburg13 » February 25th, 2017, 12:13 pm

If there was no indicator, my computer rankings wouldn't have spit out Mira Loma at first place before nationals last year. ;)
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by pikachu4919 » February 25th, 2017, 1:09 pm

windu34 wrote:
EastStroudsburg13 wrote:I wouldn't say that Troy's performance foreshadowed their loss as much as Mira Loma's performance foreshadowed their win. They completely and utterly dominated.
Not really more than past years:
2014: 4th at nats, 57 points at states
2015: 2nd at nats, 50 points at states
2016: 1st at nats, 54 points at states
I thought Troy's score at SoCal's states last year was 102 or something near that
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