Way Too Early Predictions

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Ashernoel
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby Ashernoel » February 21st, 2017, 6:03 am

Unome wrote:Rather difficult to do in some places (e.g. as far as I know Fossil Ridge has yet competed this year).

Div C:
  1. Troy
  2. Seven Lakes
  3. Solon
  4. Harriton
  5. LASA
  6. Centerville/Mason
  7. Mira Loma (if Mountain View, 2 ranks lower)
  8. Stevenson
  9. Northville
  10. WW-P North (if Montgomery, 4 ranks lower)
  11. Acton-Boxborough
  12. New Trier
  13. Mounds View
  14. Chattahoochee
  15. Columbia
  16. Boca Raton
  17. 'Iolani
  18. Fossil Ridge
  19. Munster/Carmel
  20. Ladue


I think chattahoochee should be higher
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby Unome » February 21st, 2017, 6:08 am

Ashernoel wrote:
Unome wrote:Rather difficult to do in some places (e.g. as far as I know Fossil Ridge has yet competed this year).

Div C:
  1. Troy
  2. Seven Lakes
  3. Solon
  4. Harriton
  5. LASA
  6. Centerville/Mason
  7. Mira Loma (if Mountain View, 2 ranks lower)
  8. Stevenson
  9. Northville
  10. WW-P North (if Montgomery, 4 ranks lower)
  11. Acton-Boxborough
  12. New Trier
  13. Mounds View
  14. Chattahoochee
  15. Columbia
  16. Boca Raton
  17. 'Iolani
  18. Fossil Ridge
  19. Munster/Carmel
  20. Ladue


I think chattahoochee should be higher

I could see us being in 12th, maybe 11th if we get lucky, and possibly as low as 18th or 19th (depending on whether/how much 'Iolani and Fossil Ridge improve). Considering how Northville and Stevenson are (both appear to be correlating pretty well with Daniel Wright and Meads Mill so far - if that continues, they should be hitting their peak right about now), and WW-P North being really good this year (as well as motivated by Montgomery to improve) I don't think we could make it to top ten as we are now - though of course things could change; we'll see how the state tournament goes.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby maxxxxx » February 21st, 2017, 6:41 am

Unome wrote:Rather difficult to do in some places (e.g. as far as I know Fossil Ridge has yet competed this year).

Div B:
  1. Beckendorff
  2. Solon
  3. Meads Mill
  4. Daniel Wright
  5. Kennedy/Churchill
  6. Piedmont
  7. Tower Heights/Magsig
  8. Springhouse
  9. Marie Murphy
  10. Gelinas
  11. Lakeshore
  12. Longfellow
  13. Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
  14. WW-P Community
  15. Eagle Hill
  16. Ladue
  17. Dodgen
  18. Auburn
  19. Pembroke Hill
  20. Fulton Science Academy

Div C:
  1. Troy
  2. Seven Lakes
  3. Solon
  4. Harriton
  5. LASA
  6. Centerville/Mason
  7. Mira Loma (if Mountain View, 2 ranks lower)
  8. Stevenson
  9. Northville
  10. WW-P North (if Montgomery, 4 ranks lower)
  11. Acton-Boxborough
  12. New Trier
  13. Mounds View
  14. Chattahoochee
  15. Columbia
  16. Boca Raton
  17. 'Iolani
  18. Fossil Ridge
  19. Munster/Carmel
  20. Ladue


Any reason for not putting a 2nd PA team in the B top 20? I know BC is weaker and Shady Side had a pretty weak showing at WSU, but both PA teams have been top 17 for the past 4 years.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby windu34 » February 21st, 2017, 7:35 am

maxxxxx wrote:
Unome wrote:Rather difficult to do in some places (e.g. as far as I know Fossil Ridge has yet competed this year).

Div B:
  1. Beckendorff
  2. Solon
  3. Meads Mill
  4. Daniel Wright
  5. Kennedy/Churchill
  6. Piedmont
  7. Tower Heights/Magsig
  8. Springhouse
  9. Marie Murphy
  10. Gelinas
  11. Lakeshore
  12. Longfellow
  13. Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
  14. WW-P Community
  15. Eagle Hill
  16. Ladue
  17. Dodgen
  18. Auburn
  19. Pembroke Hill
  20. Fulton Science Academy

Div C:
  1. Troy
  2. Seven Lakes
  3. Solon
  4. Harriton
  5. LASA
  6. Centerville/Mason
  7. Mira Loma (if Mountain View, 2 ranks lower)
  8. Stevenson
  9. Northville
  10. WW-P North (if Montgomery, 4 ranks lower)
  11. Acton-Boxborough
  12. New Trier
  13. Mounds View
  14. Chattahoochee
  15. Columbia
  16. Boca Raton
  17. 'Iolani
  18. Fossil Ridge
  19. Munster/Carmel
  20. Ladue


Any reason for not putting a 2nd PA team in the B top 20? I know BC is weaker and Shady Side had a pretty weak showing at WSU, but both PA teams have been top 17 for the past 4 years.

Whatever happened to Bayard Rustin? Haven't they always been the runner-up behind Harriton and the favorite for the 2nd ticket to nationals
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby Unome » February 21st, 2017, 7:47 am

windu34 wrote:
maxxxxx wrote:
Unome wrote:Rather difficult to do in some places (e.g. as far as I know Fossil Ridge has yet competed this year).

Div B:
  1. Beckendorff
  2. Solon
  3. Meads Mill
  4. Daniel Wright
  5. Kennedy/Churchill
  6. Piedmont
  7. Tower Heights/Magsig
  8. Springhouse
  9. Marie Murphy
  10. Gelinas
  11. Lakeshore
  12. Longfellow
  13. Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
  14. WW-P Community
  15. Eagle Hill
  16. Ladue
  17. Dodgen
  18. Auburn
  19. Pembroke Hill
  20. Fulton Science Academy

Div C:
  1. Troy
  2. Seven Lakes
  3. Solon
  4. Harriton
  5. LASA
  6. Centerville/Mason
  7. Mira Loma (if Mountain View, 2 ranks lower)
  8. Stevenson
  9. Northville
  10. WW-P North (if Montgomery, 4 ranks lower)
  11. Acton-Boxborough
  12. New Trier
  13. Mounds View
  14. Chattahoochee
  15. Columbia
  16. Boca Raton
  17. 'Iolani
  18. Fossil Ridge
  19. Munster/Carmel
  20. Ladue


Any reason for not putting a 2nd PA team in the B top 20? I know BC is weaker and Shady Side had a pretty weak showing at WSU, but both PA teams have been top 17 for the past 4 years.

Whatever happened to Bayard Rustin? Haven't they always been the runner-up behind Harriton and the favorite for the 2nd ticket to nationals

To me, Rustin doesn't seem to be on the same level as the last few years; after the strong showing at MIT (considering they were somewhat split) I think Conestoga will make it, with Rustin in 3rd. Regardless, I wouldn't rank either of them higher than 17th (on my mental list I currently have PA team 2 at 21st).

PA B: Considering the exceptionally weak performances of Bala Cynwyd and Shady Side so far, I'm not ranking any of them in top 20. Franklin Regional, Strath Haven, and Eagle View actually have pretty good shots at qualifying this year (idk how Welsh Valley is doing).
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby Ashernoel » February 21st, 2017, 10:22 am

Predicting the order of the 10-20 teams seems like mostly a toss up. Predicting the top five are much more fun. Soooo... what are the odds Troy wins first? 5 to 1 ?
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby Unome » February 21st, 2017, 10:35 am

Ashernoel wrote:Predicting the order of the 10-20 teams seems like mostly a toss up. Predicting the top five are much more fun. Soooo... what are the odds Troy wins first? 5 to 1 ?

I give it 2 to 1, no team is that secure. Last year at this point, everyone was sure Troy would win.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby EastStroudsburg13 » February 21st, 2017, 10:41 am

Oh hey, it's time to share picks!

B Division
1. Beckendorff
2. Solon
3. Daniel Wright
4. Meads Mill
5. Kennedy/Churchill
6. Longfellow
7. Piedmont
8. Marie Murphy
9. Tower Heights (if Magsig, 3 spots lower)
10. Springhouse
11. Gelinas
12. Lakeshore (if Baker, 4 spots lower)
13. Community
14. Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
15. Dodgen
16. Ladue
17. Eagle Hill
18. Bearden
19. Hamilton
20. Chippewa

C Division
1. Troy (CA)
2. Seven Lakes
3. Mira Loma (if Mt View, 9 spots lower)
4. Harriton
5. Solon
6. Northville
7. LASA (if Clements, 9 spots lower)
8. New Trier
9. Centerville (if Mason, 1 spot lower; if Mentor, 5 spots lower)
10. Mounds View
11. Stevenson (IL)
12. Acton-Boxborough
13. WWP North (if Monty, 8 spots lower)
14. Columbia
15. Chattahoochee
16. Munster (if Carmel, 4 spots lower)
17. Boca Raton
18. International Academy Central (if Troy, 2 spots lower)
19. Ward Melville (if FM, 1 spot lower)
20. Brookwood

It is striking to me how many teams I had to leave off the C list. Fossil Ridge, Rustin, Iolani, Camas, and Ladue all just missed.

As for Rustin, I don't necessarily think they're going to fall super far; I still have them as a slight favorite for 2nd over Stoga. They have a massive body of work over invites, so I'm not super concerned about a slightly more lackluster performance at Penn. Do I think they're as good as the last couple years (or Penncrest of the late 00s)? No, probably not. But they have what it takes to make nationals, and Stoga still has that mental hurdle to clear.

As for B, I think the second spot is Shady Side's to lose, but it's close. Definitely feel like the 2nd PA team is at risk for potentially falling out of the top 30. We'll have more information about how the teams stack up after regionals happen, but my current ranking would likely look like Shady Side, Bala Cynwyd, Strath Haven, Eagle View, Franklin Regional (with the last being especially difficult to rank because there's no invite results to compare)

And finally, for odds: 2 to 1 seems fair, since we have all the state tournaments to get through. However, I find it fairly likely that their odds will go up after them, since I don't see any team coming close to challenging them yet.

NOTE: These are not equivalent to the to top 25 rankings I will be submitting. They are very similar in places, but not exactly.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby LowEntropy » February 21st, 2017, 10:57 am

Figured I'd share my list. I haven't done many predictions before so this is largely based off of last year's Nationals results.

  1. Troy
  2. Seven Lakes
  3. Mira Loma
  4. Harriton
  5. Centreville
  6. Adlai E. Stevenson
  7. Solon
  8. LASA
  9. Northville
  10. Mounds View
  11. New Trier
  12. Acton-Boxborough
  13. Chattahoochee
  14. Fayetteville-Manlius
  15. West Windsor Plainsboro North
  16. Bayard Rustin
  17. Boca Raton
  18. Columbia
  19. Carmel
  20. Iolani
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby Ashernoel » February 21st, 2017, 2:56 pm

LowEntropy wrote:Figured I'd share my list. I haven't done many predictions before so this is largely based off of last year's Nationals results.

  1. Troy
  2. Seven Lakes
  3. Mira Loma
  4. Harriton
  5. Centreville
  6. Adlai E. Stevenson
  7. Solon
  8. LASA
  9. Northville
  10. Mounds View
  11. New Trier
  12. Acton-Boxborough
  13. Chattahoochee
  14. Fayetteville-Manlius
  15. West Windsor Plainsboro North
  16. Bayard Rustin
  17. Boca Raton
  18. Columbia
  19. Carmel
  20. Iolani


Good but Illinois is too high, and Solon is farrr too low
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby Unome » February 21st, 2017, 3:11 pm

Ashernoel wrote:
LowEntropy wrote:Figured I'd share my list. I haven't done many predictions before so this is largely based off of last year's Nationals results.

  1. Troy
  2. Seven Lakes
  3. Mira Loma
  4. Harriton
  5. Centreville
  6. Adlai E. Stevenson
  7. Solon
  8. LASA
  9. Northville
  10. Mounds View
  11. New Trier
  12. Acton-Boxborough
  13. Chattahoochee
  14. Fayetteville-Manlius
  15. West Windsor Plainsboro North
  16. Bayard Rustin
  17. Boca Raton
  18. Columbia
  19. Carmel
  20. Iolani


Good but Illinois is too high, and Solon is farrr too low

I wouldn't quite say the IL teams are too high, but I agree that Solon will probably do better than 7th.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby Ashernoel » February 21st, 2017, 3:29 pm

Unome wrote:
Ashernoel wrote:
LowEntropy wrote:Figured I'd share my list. I haven't done many predictions before so this is largely based off of last year's Nationals results.

  1. Troy
  2. Seven Lakes
  3. Mira Loma
  4. Harriton
  5. Centreville
  6. Adlai E. Stevenson
  7. Solon
  8. LASA
  9. Northville
  10. Mounds View
  11. New Trier
  12. Acton-Boxborough
  13. Chattahoochee
  14. Fayetteville-Manlius
  15. West Windsor Plainsboro North
  16. Bayard Rustin
  17. Boca Raton
  18. Columbia
  19. Carmel
  20. Iolani


Good but Illinois is too high, and Solon is farrr too low

I wouldn't quite say the IL teams are too high, but I agree that Solon will probably do better than 7th.

Loyola this weekend will be a valuable metric of comparing Illinois teams to each other and to a few out of state teams.
Last edited by Ashernoel on February 22nd, 2017, 3:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby 4Head » February 22nd, 2017, 3:19 pm

Ashernoel wrote:
Unome wrote:
Ashernoel wrote:
Good but Illinois is too high, and Solon is farrr too low

I wouldn't quite say the IL teams are too high, but I agree that Solon will probably do better than 7th.

Loyola this weekend will be a valuable metric of comparing Illinois teams to each other and to a few out of state teams. (Mentor?)

Don't quote me, but I believe Mentor has their regionals this weekend.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby Ashernoel » February 22nd, 2017, 3:37 pm

4Head wrote:
Ashernoel wrote:
Unome wrote:I wouldn't quite say the IL teams are too high, but I agree that Solon will probably do better than 7th.

Loyola this weekend will be a valuable metric of comparing Illinois teams to each other and to a few out of state teams. (Mentor?)

Don't quote me, but I believe Mentor has their regionals this weekend.

Oh wow, good luck to them! **fixed
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby Private Wang Fire » February 22nd, 2017, 7:26 pm

Ashernoel wrote:
Private Wang Fire wrote:
There's Centerville too! They haven't been to many invites this year, but they looked quite strong at Wright State without a full team, even.

I feel like everyone always forgets Centerville. They've qualified to nats for the last 15 years (altho that's a streak we can hopefully break :) )


There is centerville, but at Wright state both of your split astro teams managed to run away with the victory (1st and second) in Astro against our split team. You dominated UPenn, and Centerville has been meh.


I think Centerville is still running strong this year, much better than most people have been ranking them. I heard they had less than a full team at Wright State, and still managed to place ahead of us overall. While I do agree our Penn results seem impressive, I'm not sure how well they'll translate back in-state, and the strength of our longtime in-state overlords is not to be understimated :D

Unome wrote:I give it 2 to 1, no team is that secure. Last year at this point, everyone was sure Troy would win.


Wouldn't 5 to 1 be lower odds than 2 to 1? If it's 5 to 1 odds on Troy winning?

Anyways, my pick to win nats would be Troy as well, with top 5 probably looking something like -

1. Troy
2. Solon
3. Mira Loma
4. Seven Lakes
5. Northville/Harriton/IL Team #1 (leaning towards Northville)
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