Pennsylvania 2018

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Re: Pennsylvania 2018

Post by Froggie » February 17th, 2018, 5:00 am

vb wrote:I do not know how shady side did in their invitationals.. but at Solan, their performance was not impressive :(
I’ll just say this:
last year at Mentor, we got 17th overall. But we made nats. I’m currently at Mentor right now as I post this (waiting for WIDI to start), we’ll see what happens.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2018

Post by Pettywap » February 17th, 2018, 6:59 pm

vb wrote:I do not know how shady side did in their invitationals.. but at Solan, their performance was not impressive :(
Thoughts on their performance at mentor?
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Re: Pennsylvania 2018

Post by Anomaly » February 17th, 2018, 7:12 pm

Pettywap wrote:
vb wrote:I do not know how shady side did in their invitationals.. but at Solan, their performance was not impressive :(
Thoughts on their performance at mentor?[/quote]
I, on the other hand, think that Shady Side's performance at Mentor shows that Solon wasn't a one-time thing, and their performance this year is especially strong. I think any doubt that PA's second spot for nats (after Springhouse) could change has been snuffed out. It's gonna be another Springhouse and Shady Side year.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2018

Post by vb » February 17th, 2018, 7:20 pm

that was awesome! very good score..

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Re: Pennsylvania 2018

Post by EastStroudsburg13 » February 19th, 2018, 8:26 am

Scores of PA teams at Penn (Score with Rocks in parentheses):

1. Harriton B - 235 (238)
2. Harriton A - 242 (258)
3. Rustin - 321 (338)
4. Conestoga A - 355 (366)
5. Penncrest - 381 (395)
6. Shady Side - 438 (439)
7. Lower Merion A - 454 (475)
8. Lower Merion B - 541 (546)
9. North Penn - 550 (554)
10. Conestoga B - 569 (593)
11. North Pocono A - 603 (631)
12. Parkland - 636 (668)
13. Garnet Valley - 712 (727)
14. North Pocono B - 758 (802)
15. Whitehall - 802 (835)
16. Shipley School - 811 (848)
17. Masterman - 838 (878)
18. Sun Valley - 938 (984)

PA teams, manually stacked (with Rocks in parentheses)
1. Harriton - 122 (125)
2. Lower Merion - 252 (257)
3. Conestoga - 309 (320)
4. Rustin - 320 (338)
5. Penncrest - 381 (395)
6. Shady Side - 438 (439)
7. North Penn - 550 (554)
8. North Pocono - 571 (599)
9. Parkland - 636 (668)
10. Garnet Valley - 712 (727)
11. Whitehall - 802 (835)
12. Shipley School - 811 (848)
13. Masterman - 838 (878)
14. Sun Valley - 938 (984)

Overall, impressive showings by Harriton. I still think the race for second is too close to call between Lower Merion, Stoga, and Rustin; have to give Rustin the edge as of now based on experience and past history, but it could go any way. Penncrest has just looked a step off the front pack most of the year, and Shady Side also looks like it may be just behind Penncrest.

As for everyone else, North Penn has been quietly impressive this invitational season; I think they're a pretty safe bet to get 6th at SEPA, and may contend for top 10 in the state. North Pocono also performed solidly, although they didn't really distance themselves in the NEPA race here. Parkland finished okay, but it looks like CEPA is between NW Lehigh and Perkiomen Valley. Garnet Valley and Whitehall could make states but it may be close. Impressed by the quietly solid results from Shipley and Masterman; while they may not make states this year, their improvement is evident, and hopefully that continues in future years!
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Re: Pennsylvania 2018

Post by EastStroudsburg13 » February 25th, 2018, 10:50 am

I was able to get ahold of Garnet Valley scores! There's a scoresheet on the wiki, but here's a summary:

1. Springhouse A - 88
2. Community A - 109
3. Springhouse B - 142
4. Bay Academy A - 200
5. Bala Cynwyd B - 219
6. Orefield - 268
7. Strath Haven A - 282
8. Community B - 293
9. Bedford A - 325
10. Strath Haven B - 369
11. Pond Road - 400
12. Stetson - 413
13. Abington Heights A - 424
14. Devon Prep - 438
15. J.R. Fugett A - 453
16. Harlan Rowe B - 456
17. Bay Academy B - 463
18. Wayne Highlands - 480
19. Bala Cynwyd A - 485
20. Whitehall-Coplay A - 501
21. Bay Academy C - 503
22. Harlan Rowe A - 512
23. Haverford - 515
24. Wyoming (Area or Seminary) - 564
25. Lime Kiln A - 569
26. Warwick - 575
27. Dallas B - 575
28. Bedford B - 605
29. Chichester - 614
30. Thomas Edison - 624
31. Chapin School - 649
32. Clarksville A - 668
33. Kutztown - 677
34. Dallas A - 692
35. Abington Heights B - 706
36. Northley A - 721
37. Whitehall-Coplay B - 749
38. Clarksville B - 806
39. J.R. Fugett B - 890

No-show: Lime Kiln B, Northley B
Unscored: Garnet Valley C1, Garnet Valley C2

With manual stacking:

1. Springhouse - 54
2. Community - 67
3. Bay Academy - 166
4. Strath Haven - 195
5. Bala Cynwyd - 201
6. Orefield - 268
7. Bedford - 289
8. Abington Heights - 332
9. Harlan Rowe - 341
10. Pond Road - 400
11. Stetson - 413
12. J.R. Fugett - 416
13. Devon Prep - 438
14. Dallas - 442
15. Wayne Highlands - 480
16. Whitehall-Coplay - 488
17. Haverford - 515
18. Wyoming (Area or Seminary) - 564
19. Lime Kiln - 569
20. Warwick - 575
21. Clarksville - 581
22. Chichester - 614
23. Thomas Edison - 624
24. Chapin School - 649
25. Kutztown - 677
26. Northley - 721
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Re: Pennsylvania 2018

Post by Anomaly » February 25th, 2018, 11:34 am

Time to make those regional predictions East... SE regional is on Wednesday! ;)
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Re: Pennsylvania 2018

Post by EastStroudsburg13 » February 25th, 2018, 11:36 am

Working on it... ;)
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Re: Pennsylvania 2018

Post by dld0nmxuvjez4i1 » February 25th, 2018, 3:41 pm

SE PA - C Division Predictions:

C Division
1. Harriton - duh, barring an extreme disaster let's be real here
2. BAYARD Rustin - also duh, plus very strong team and invitational results throughout the year, thwey really are a cut above 3, 4, 5
3. Conestoga - places 3 to 5 will be close; they are usually solid across the board at regionals and have comparable invitational results to 4 and 5
4. Penncrest - they've slowly gotten stronger throughout invitationals season, and have historically done well so I have them edging out #5 by a hair
5. Lower Merion - will probably do better than 3 and 4 overall but seriously tank certain events, causing them to be closely behind 3 and 4
6. North Penn - strong results at Penn, made it last year, big school
7. Garnet Valley - after a year not qualifying, they should be energized to make it and they were decently strong at Penn
8. Central Bucks South - Tiger results were mediocre but they should be able to qualify for States again with the additional spot as there are no other teams near them
9. Haverford - close to North Penn at BVF but I feel like they will barely miss it
10. Strath Haven - historically good, but nothing else indicates that they will make it to States

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Re: Pennsylvania 2018

Post by EastStroudsburg13 » February 26th, 2018, 5:24 am

Apparently people like when I do this, so I guess I have to do one of these again. I tried to keep the word count down a bit, but we all know how that can go sometimes. Division B first, in chronological order of regionals this time. I’m going to do top 5, except for regions that only sent 4 teams to states last year. I’ll also do top 3 for Urban, although that’s really more of a wild guess.

Southeast: 1. Strath Haven, 2. Bala Cynwyd, 3. Garnet Valley, 4. Welsh Valley, 5. Stetson
This is an interesting region this year, as the top three teams all seem to be in the mix. Strath Haven, being the defending champ, has been pretty consistent this year so far, but they’ll have to stave off challenges from Bala Cynwyd, which showed improvement (as normal) between invites, and Garnet Valley, who broke into the top three last year and doesn’t look like they’ve lost a step based on Rustin. BC gets the nod at second here for me based on their history. After that, it feels like there’s a gap to the next tier of teams, including Welsh Valley, Stetson, Devon Prep, and J.R. Fugett. I’m going with WV for their historical consistency and Stetson for their strong invitational season, especially at Cornell. Haverford, Springton Lake, and Tredyffrin-Easttown are also teams to watch for the final qualification spots.

Northwest: 1. North East, 2. Wilmington Area, 3. Laurel, 4. Wattsburg Area
Northwest is always difficult because there’s no invitational results to judge from, so the only data I can use is from past years. Regardless, it feels like North East is the safest bet, as they’re the only team to finish in the top 3 for each of the past four years. I’m a little suspicious that Wattsburg Area might lose a little bit of steam this year, so I’m putting my stock in Wilmington Area to start cycling back up to the top of the region, and Laurel, who’s one of the most consistent teams in the region. Also keep an eye on Clarion Area, which is usually on the bubble, and Kane Area, which improved a lot last year and has a deep history.

Southwest: 1. Shady Side, 2. Franklin Regional, 3. Winchester Thurston, 4. Peters Township, 5. Huston
Predicting SW is difficult like NW… with the exception of Shady Side. This is especially true this year, as SSA has had some very notable results, especially at Solon and Cornell, to show that they may be challenging Springhouse for state superiority. Franklin Regional is again a bit of a mystery state-wise, but they should be strong enough to remain at second. Winchester Thurston should be able to hang onto third, but a push from an improving Peters Township or consistent Huston wouldn’t surprise me. Teams to watch include Spring Valley, who finished strong last year, but has never made states in an even year (these things matter!) and Norwin, which is seeking a state return.

Northeast: 1. Abington Heights, 2. Wayne Highlands, 3. Harlan Rowe, 4. Wyoming Area, 5. Dallas
This is an interesting time for NEPA B; last year was the first year in its history that no team from the region placed in the top 10 in the state, and they had six teams place between 15th and 24th. As of now, it looks like Abington Heights is the favorite, as both the defending champ and the team with the most impressive invitational results. After that, it’s pretty wide open. For second, I was tempted to go with Harlan Rowe as they’ve continued their rise from dormant feeder for Athens Area to legitimate regional contender with strong showings at GV and Cornell, but I chose Wayne Highlands for their general track record, and they didn’t do too badly at GV and Little Tiger themselves. Rowe’s rise would push Wyoming Area to 4th, which would be the lowest since 2005, but I’m unsure if “Wyoming” at GV was them, so I’m not confident about putting them above the other invitational vets. As for the rest, Dallas looks the safest bet based on GV, though I expect Wilkes-Barre Academy, Wyoming Seminary, and Wallenpaupack Area to be involved with the states race, with 2017 risers Crestwood and Lake Lehman as dark horses.

Central East: 1. Springhouse, 2. Orefield, 3. Whitehall-Coplay, 4. Kutztown Area
First place here is pretty straightforward: despite CEPA being an underrated region, Springhouse is head and shoulders above the competition yet again. Orefield has shown out well at invites, showing clear improvement between Rustin and GV, and finished comfortably above Whitehall-Coplay both times. Whitehall-Coplay and Kutztown both tend to improve as the year goes on, but they seem to be somewhat behind where they usually perform at this point in the year. Improve in the next couple weeks and they should be safe, and could challenge Orefield for second; fail to do so, and they may see their spots taken by historical standbys Exeter Township and Fleetwood Area, or dark horse Twin Valley, which competed at Rustin.

Central: 1. Eagle View, 2. Hershey, 3. Park Forest, 4. Spring Grove, 5. Good Hope
Central is stronger in B Division than it has been in quite some time, and could even have an argument for best B region in the state currently. Eagle View is the odds-on favorite after their third-place breakout last year, but Hershey is coming on strong after an 8th-place states finish, and was only 7 points behind Eagle View at Rustin by manual stacking. I still expect Eagle View to win, but the margin could be closer than anticipated. I have Park Forest then as a solid third, positioning themselves continue the S7reak, which is really the only important race in PA states. Spring Grove is fourth, as they seem back to their trademark consistency after a blip in the 2014 and 2015 seasons. Fifth could be any number of teams, but I see Good Hope finishing there after a solid Little Tiger performance, over Warwick and Middletown Area. Eastern York, Mount Nittany, and rising new team Elizabethtown Area are on the states bubble.

Southeast Urban: 1. PPACS, 2. Folk Arts, 3. St Katherine of Siena
I’m actually fairly secure in these three teams based on history, but the order is pretty much a guess. PPACS (Philadelphia Performing Arts Charter School) won the competition in 2016 before finishing second in 2017 to FACTS (Folk Arts-Cultural Treasures Charter School). I wouldn’t be surprised if those are the top two again, but I have PPACS reclaiming the top spot. St. Katherine has a third-place streak going, but Vare-Washington could be a sleeper to break it.

Feel free to debate these for now and to prepare your own thoughts! I’ll be posting C Division around midday tomorrow.
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