Maybe we could try taking the average of the placements for a school in each event? This may account for such exaggerations.Unome wrote:^ This. For those using manual stacking for predictions, definitely be careful and try to account for this.Alex-RCHS wrote:Also, "manual stacking" assumes that you can assimilate people perfectly into one team, which is almost never true, so it usually exaggerates the strength of the schools with multiple teams.
State Tournament Results
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Re: State Tournament Results
West Windsor-Plainsboro High School South '21
2021 Nationals: Astronomy - 1st, Geologic Mapping - 1st, Team - 6th
2021 Nationals: Astronomy - 1st, Geologic Mapping - 1st, Team - 6th
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Re: State Tournament Results
This could significantly skew data so single teams seem stronger.pb5754[] wrote:Maybe we could try taking the average of the placements for a school in each event? This may account for such exaggerations.Unome wrote:^ This. For those using manual stacking for predictions, definitely be careful and try to account for this.Alex-RCHS wrote:Also, "manual stacking" assumes that you can assimilate people perfectly into one team, which is almost never true, so it usually exaggerates the strength of the schools with multiple teams.
What about builds always being manually stacked higher and have the average of the events the second team placed higher in.
Also I see no reason not to bring multiple teams to regionals/states if the teams are fully stacked. The points lost would generally be counteracted by the other teams points loss and could possibly help you. Also provided a good learning opportunity for the future.
South Woods MS, Syosset HS '21
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Re: State Tournament Results
I've thought about doing some sort of "degree of stacking" that uses a log function or square root or something to reduce the impact of manually stacking the scores of significantly unstacked teams, as a way of more accurately representing how a single team would have performed, but I haven't really delved into it fully yet.
East Stroudsburg South Class of 2012, Alumnus of JT Lambert, Drexel University Class of 2017
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Re: State Tournament Results
NJ has quite a lot of teams from each Regionals moving on to States, and it also only has a half slate of events, so back in the days when we could have 2 teams, we would always just guarantee everyone spots on the teams even if they didn't normally do any of the regionals events, so our teams were unstacked, randomized, everything, but we were still confident of making States because there are hella spots and not that many teams. This year, with only one Regionals team, we filled it as much as possible with freshmen because doing well at Regionals matters at least as little to us as doing well at invitationals, and it was much more valuable as an opportunity to give them experience. I can see how a team like Troy, which doesn't really doubt their advancing to Nats I imagine, could do something like that with States, even.
WWP South, graduated 2018
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Re: State Tournament Results
While Troy probably could, socal is actually pretty hard, with Troy not winning events they probably could win nats in (I'm assuming they sent thier full team). Also were you not allowed multiple teams? We always run 3 at Regionals. Also I would think that most team members wouldn't want to give up spots for freshmanknottingpurple wrote:NJ has quite a lot of teams from each Regionals moving on to States, and it also only has a half slate of events, so back in the days when we could have 2 teams, we would always just guarantee everyone spots on the teams even if they didn't normally do any of the regionals events, so our teams were unstacked, randomized, everything, but we were still confident of making States because there are hella spots and not that many teams. This year, with only one Regionals team, we filled it as much as possible with freshmen because doing well at Regionals matters at least as little to us as doing well at invitationals, and it was much more valuable as an opportunity to give them experience. I can see how a team like Troy, which doesn't really doubt their advancing to Nats I imagine, could do something like that with States, even.
South Woods MS, Syosset HS '21
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Past Events: Microbe, Invasive, Matsci, Fermi, Astro, Code, Fossils
BirdSO TD/ES
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Re: State Tournament Results
NJ has lots of teams wanting to join, but never enough event supervisors or tournaments to hold all of them. They typically cut off at ~60 teams per division statewide, though if they had the space they could have significantly more.Name wrote:While Troy probably could, socal is actually pretty hard, with Troy not winning events they probably could win nats in (I'm assuming they sent thier full team). Also were you not allowed multiple teams? We always run 3 at Regionals. Also I would think that most team members wouldn't want to give up spots for freshmanknottingpurple wrote:NJ has quite a lot of teams from each Regionals moving on to States, and it also only has a half slate of events, so back in the days when we could have 2 teams, we would always just guarantee everyone spots on the teams even if they didn't normally do any of the regionals events, so our teams were unstacked, randomized, everything, but we were still confident of making States because there are hella spots and not that many teams. This year, with only one Regionals team, we filled it as much as possible with freshmen because doing well at Regionals matters at least as little to us as doing well at invitationals, and it was much more valuable as an opportunity to give them experience. I can see how a team like Troy, which doesn't really doubt their advancing to Nats I imagine, could do something like that with States, even.
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Re: State Tournament Results
How many more teams need to join for NJ to get two bidsUnome wrote:NJ has lots of teams wanting to join, but never enough event supervisors or tournaments to hold all of them. They typically cut off at ~60 teams per division statewide, though if they had the space they could have significantly more.Name wrote:While Troy probably could, socal is actually pretty hard, with Troy not winning events they probably could win nats in (I'm assuming they sent thier full team). Also were you not allowed multiple teams? We always run 3 at Regionals. Also I would think that most team members wouldn't want to give up spots for freshmanknottingpurple wrote:NJ has quite a lot of teams from each Regionals moving on to States, and it also only has a half slate of events, so back in the days when we could have 2 teams, we would always just guarantee everyone spots on the teams even if they didn't normally do any of the regionals events, so our teams were unstacked, randomized, everything, but we were still confident of making States because there are hella spots and not that many teams. This year, with only one Regionals team, we filled it as much as possible with freshmen because doing well at Regionals matters at least as little to us as doing well at invitationals, and it was much more valuable as an opportunity to give them experience. I can see how a team like Troy, which doesn't really doubt their advancing to Nats I imagine, could do something like that with States, even.
lol, I realize this is pretty improbable, considering that it is probably about 150 more.
West Windsor-Plainsboro High School South '21
2021 Nationals: Astronomy - 1st, Geologic Mapping - 1st, Team - 6th
2021 Nationals: Astronomy - 1st, Geologic Mapping - 1st, Team - 6th
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Re: State Tournament Results
Now that there are even more states claiming bids, NJ ever getting a second bid is even less likely than before. In NJ 2 years ago, there was space for plenty of C schools to bring 2 teams, but last year only a couple of teams could, and this year I don't think any could, because all 1st teams get priority over all 2nd teams. (We still have to pay a 2nd registration though so we can bring 2 teams to invites.) And, really, since NJ allows 18 people/team, plus there were like 5 alternates for the 2 trial events, we had room for more people than just our freshmen, but the bigger part of our competing was invites, where we went to 3 with 2 teams each, and we guaranteed everyone could go to at least one invite. But freshmen need to grow and learn more than the rest of us do, right, and the experience they gain will serve them for more years. The goal of team members should be to serve the best interests of the team, not themselves...pb5754[] wrote:How many more teams need to join for NJ to get two bidsUnome wrote:NJ has lots of teams wanting to join, but never enough event supervisors or tournaments to hold all of them. They typically cut off at ~60 teams per division statewide, though if they had the space they could have significantly more.Name wrote:
While Troy probably could, socal is actually pretty hard, with Troy not winning events they probably could win nats in (I'm assuming they sent thier full team). Also were you not allowed multiple teams? We always run 3 at Regionals. Also I would think that most team members wouldn't want to give up spots for freshman
lol, I realize this is pretty improbable, considering that it is probably about 150 more.
WWP South, graduated 2018
Current undegrad in physics @Oxford University
Current undegrad in physics @Oxford University
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Re: State Tournament Results
Until nationals expands...knottingpurple wrote: Now that there are even more states claiming bids, NJ ever getting a second bid is even less likely than before.
East Stroudsburg South Class of 2012, Alumnus of JT Lambert, Drexel University Class of 2017
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Re: State Tournament Results
What are the probability of nats expanding soon, and if so by how much?EastStroudsburg13 wrote:Until nationals expands...knottingpurple wrote: Now that there are even more states claiming bids, NJ ever getting a second bid is even less likely than before.
South Woods MS, Syosset HS '21
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BirdSO TD/ES
Past Events: Microbe, Invasive, Matsci, Fermi, Astro, Code, Fossils
1st place MIT Codebusters 2019-2020 1st place NYS Fermi Questions (2019), Astronomy and Codebusters (2021) Science Olympiad Founder's Scholarship winner
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