Unofficial Rankings C

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby pb5754[] » April 17th, 2018, 3:18 pm

ET2020 wrote:1. Troy (CA)
2. Mason (OH)
3. TX (Prediction LASA)
4. Harriton (PA)
5. Solon (OH)
6.Mounds View (MN)
7. Mira Loma (CA)
8. New Trier (IL)
9. Fayetteville-Manlius (NY)
10. Columbia (NY)
11. Northville (MI)
12. Adlai E. Stevenson (IL)
13. West Windsor Plainsboro North (NJ)
14. Acton-Boxborough (MA)
15. Carmel (IN)
16. Troy (MI)
17. Boca Raton (FL)
18. Bayard Rustin (PA)
19. Ladue Horton-Watkins (MO)
20. Brookwood (GA)

Acton-Boxborough should do better than North, based on Yale results.

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Unome » April 17th, 2018, 4:19 pm

pb5754[] wrote:
ET2020 wrote:1. Troy (CA)
2. Mason (OH)
3. TX (Prediction LASA)
4. Harriton (PA)
5. Solon (OH)
6.Mounds View (MN)
7. Mira Loma (CA)
8. New Trier (IL)
9. Fayetteville-Manlius (NY)
10. Columbia (NY)
11. Northville (MI)
12. Adlai E. Stevenson (IL)
13. West Windsor Plainsboro North (NJ)
14. Acton-Boxborough (MA)
15. Carmel (IN)
16. Troy (MI)
17. Boca Raton (FL)
18. Bayard Rustin (PA)
19. Ladue Horton-Watkins (MO)
20. Brookwood (GA)

Acton-Boxborough should do better than North, based on Yale results.

I can't seem to figure out why so many people think LASA will do so well. Even with a favorable finish in Game On, LASA still finished rather worse at MIT than in 2017. I wouldn't put them higher than 6th.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby kenniky » April 18th, 2018, 2:18 pm

as much as I want AB to get 14th for the memes I don't see it happening especially with Texas losing a bid

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Alex-RCHS » April 23rd, 2018, 8:32 am

My Rankings
1. Troy
2. Mason
3. Harriton
4. Solon
5. Seven Lakes
6. Mounds View
7. Northville
8. Mira Loma
9. ABRHS
10. New Trier
11. F-M
12. Columbia
13. Stevenson
14. Enloe
15. Carmel
16. WWP-North
17. Camas
18. Brookwood
19. MI #2
20. Chattahoochee
21. PA #2
22. Blue Valley North
23. Pembroke Hill
24. Clark
25. Fossil Ridge
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Unome » April 24th, 2018, 7:45 am

New predictions:
1. Troy
2. Harriton
3. Mason
4. Solon
5. Mounds View
6. Seven Lakes
7. Mira Loma
8. Stevenson
9. Northville
10. Fayetteville-Manlius
11. New Trier
12. Acton-Boxborough
13. Columbia
14. WW-P North
15. Carmel
16. Grand Haven/Troy/IA Central/etc.
17. Camas
18. Enloe
19. Bayard Rustin/Lower Merion/Conestoga/Penncrest
20. Fossil Ridge
21. Brookwood
22. Chattahoochee
23. Pembroke Hill
24. Clark
25. Iolani
26. Boca Raton
27. Blue Valley North
28. Archimedean
29. TJHSST
30. Charter of Wilmington
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Alex-RCHS » April 25th, 2018, 1:34 pm

Unome wrote:New predictions:
1. Troy
2. Harriton
3. Mason
4. Solon
5. Mounds View
6. Seven Lakes
7. Mira Loma
8. Stevenson
9. Northville
10. Fayetteville-Manlius
11. New Trier
12. Acton-Boxborough
13. Columbia
14. WW-P North
15. Carmel
16. Grand Haven/Troy/IA Central/etc.
17. Camas
18. Enloe
19. Bayard Rustin/Lower Merion/Conestoga/Penncrest
20. Fossil Ridge
21. Brookwood
22. Chattahoochee
23. Pembroke Hill
24. Clark
25. Iolani
26. Boca Raton
27. Blue Valley North
28. Archimedean
29. TJHSST
30. Charter of Wilmington

Does this take into account all of the tournaments on the 21st? I personally find Enloe to be too low and Stevenson too high.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Unome » April 25th, 2018, 2:59 pm

Alex-RCHS wrote:
Unome wrote:New predictions:
1. Troy
2. Harriton
3. Mason
4. Solon
5. Mounds View
6. Seven Lakes
7. Mira Loma
8. Stevenson
9. Northville
10. Fayetteville-Manlius
11. New Trier
12. Acton-Boxborough
13. Columbia
14. WW-P North
15. Carmel
16. Grand Haven/Troy/IA Central/etc.
17. Camas
18. Enloe
19. Bayard Rustin/Lower Merion/Conestoga/Penncrest
20. Fossil Ridge
21. Brookwood
22. Chattahoochee
23. Pembroke Hill
24. Clark
25. Iolani
26. Boca Raton
27. Blue Valley North
28. Archimedean
29. TJHSST
30. Charter of Wilmington

Does this take into account all of the tournaments on the 21st? I personally find Enloe to be too low and Stevenson too high.

Yes. Enloe is where I think they'll be, possibly one or two spots higher but could be lower. I wouldn't move Stevenson any lower than 9th, their invitational results were too impressive.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby TheChiScientist » April 25th, 2018, 3:18 pm

Still...
That poor ISO state preformance. I would at the least put NT above them. They showed true potential and Stevenson showed weakness. ;)
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby pikachu4919 » April 28th, 2018, 5:59 pm

New Updated Predictions!

1. Troy
2. Harriton
3. Mason
4. Solon
5. Seven Lakes
6. Mounds View
7. Mira Loma
8. Northville
9. New Trier
10. Fayetteville-Manlius
11. Stevenson
12. Acton-Boxborough
13. Columbia
14. Carmel
15. WWPN
16. Chattahoochee
17. Grand Haven
18. Brookwood
19. Lower Merion
20. Camas
21. Enloe
22. Boca Raton
23. Clark
24. Pembroke Hill
25. TJHSST
26. Fossil Ridge
27. Charter School of Wilmington
28. Raleigh Charter
29. Blue Valley North
30. Iolani

This is kinda a crapshoot for me lol honestly
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby pb5754[] » April 28th, 2018, 6:06 pm

Now that all states are over...

1. Troy
2. Harriton
3. Mason
4. Solon
5. Seven Lakes
6. Mounds View
7. Mira Loma
8. Northville
9. New Trier
10. Acton-Boxborough
11. Stevenson
12. Fayetteville-Manlius
13. WWPN
14. Carmel
15. Columbia
16. Chattahoochee
17. Grand Haven
18. Lower Merion
19. Camas
20. Enloe

lol probably forgot about some teams :?

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby uictoria1 » April 29th, 2018, 8:45 am

I think many of these rankings might be overestimating Mason by 2-5 places. They have definitely had an amazing season, including a stellar performance at the Ohio State Tournament yesterday. However, if history is any guide, first time qualifiers tend to under-perform in their debut at the National Tournament. I think we can all agree Nationals presents a unique challenge in logistics, rules, and test style. There is a steep learning curve associated with it.

I definitely think Mason can make the impressive move of placing in the top 10 their first time at Nationals, and quite possibly in the top 5. They could certainly come in third as many of these rankings predict. But I think a third place performance is closer to the upper end of their potential, not the mean.

Additionally, I think if you are looking for a viable challenger to Troy, you are more likely to find it among the old guard. Harriton seems like the most likely candidate. Bad luck for Troy along with unexpectedly strong performances from several other teams (e.g. 7L, Solon) could potentially allow a dark horse win, although this seems less likely.

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Alex-RCHS » April 29th, 2018, 10:21 am

uictoria1 wrote:However, if history is any guide, first time qualifiers tend to under-perform in their debut at the National Tournament.

I would think that Mason's experience at MIT makes this less of an issue. Also, that usually applies to lower-tier teams. I don't think we've ever seen a situation where a team that's never been to nationals before beats the previous year's second and third place teams.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby uictoria1 » April 29th, 2018, 11:53 am

Alex-RCHS wrote:
uictoria1 wrote:However, if history is any guide, first time qualifiers tend to under-perform in their debut at the National Tournament.

I would think that Mason's experience at MIT makes this less of an issue. Also, that usually applies to lower-tier teams. I don't think we've ever seen a situation where a team that's never been to nationals before beats the previous year's second and third place teams.


I fully agree their MIT performance helps them in my estimation. But a lot can change between January and May, especially because invitationals may have a different mix of students competing than actually is on the final state/national team for a school. Additionally, some schools stack during invitational season, while others do not. There are a lot of moving pieces.

I'm always very cautious/skeptical about teams who don't consistently go to Nationals. Look at Mentor High School from last year, who won their state tournament, then fell way behind Solon at Nationals. It's hard to pinpoint exactly why this happened - I don't believe they were missing an key team members at Nationals, for example. Yet they saw a large drop-off in their performance.

I don't expect to see this same slide for Mason, in part because of their strong MIT performance. But I can't see any way in which being new to Nationals helps, and there are many ways it can hurt.

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Unome » April 29th, 2018, 11:59 am

uictoria1 wrote:
Alex-RCHS wrote:
uictoria1 wrote:However, if history is any guide, first time qualifiers tend to under-perform in their debut at the National Tournament.

I would think that Mason's experience at MIT makes this less of an issue. Also, that usually applies to lower-tier teams. I don't think we've ever seen a situation where a team that's never been to nationals before beats the previous year's second and third place teams.


I fully agree their MIT performance helps them in my estimation. But a lot can change between January and May, especially because invitationals may have a different mix of students competing than actually is on the final state/national team for a school. Additionally, some schools stack during invitational season, while others do not. There are a lot of moving pieces.

I'm always very cautious/skeptical about teams who don't consistently go to Nationals. Look at Mentor High School from last year, who won their state tournament, then fell way behind Solon at Nationals. It's hard to pinpoint exactly why this happened - I don't believe they were missing an key team members at Nationals, for example. Yet they saw a large drop-off in their performance.

I don't expect to see this same slide for Mason, in part because of their strong MIT performance. But I can't see any way in which being new to Nationals helps, and there are many ways it can hurt.

Mentor is easy to explain - it's less about them doing well and more about Solon bombing Optics and WIDI. Mentor pretty much fell exactly within expectations last year. I do agree that Mason doesn't have the same level of consistency as they may need to do well, but their strong events are very strong - which is why I would still rank them at least 5th.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Alex-RCHS » April 29th, 2018, 12:20 pm

Unome wrote:
uictoria1 wrote:
Alex-RCHS wrote:I would think that Mason's experience at MIT makes this less of an issue. Also, that usually applies to lower-tier teams. I don't think we've ever seen a situation where a team that's never been to nationals before beats the previous year's second and third place teams.


I fully agree their MIT performance helps them in my estimation. But a lot can change between January and May, especially because invitationals may have a different mix of students competing than actually is on the final state/national team for a school. Additionally, some schools stack during invitational season, while others do not. There are a lot of moving pieces.

I'm always very cautious/skeptical about teams who don't consistently go to Nationals. Look at Mentor High School from last year, who won their state tournament, then fell way behind Solon at Nationals. It's hard to pinpoint exactly why this happened - I don't believe they were missing an key team members at Nationals, for example. Yet they saw a large drop-off in their performance.

I don't expect to see this same slide for Mason, in part because of their strong MIT performance. But I can't see any way in which being new to Nationals helps, and there are many ways it can hurt.

Mentor is easy to explain - it's less about them doing well and more about Solon bombing Optics and WIDI. Mentor pretty much fell exactly within expectations last year. I do agree that Mason doesn't have the same level of consistency as they may need to do well, but their strong events are very strong - which is why I would still rank them at least 5th.

But if you look at the Ohio results, Mason placed top 4 in every event except Helicopters, which they bombed probably by accident (they placed second at MIT in that event, so they're definitely good). I think Mason is actually very consistent. They've competed against top teams in January and in April and done extremely well both times; they seem very consistent to me.

I know this isn't a perfect comparison, but consider this: if Mason had placed top 3 in Helicopters (based on MIT results, they should have) they would have scored UNDER 50 in Ohio, which has not happened in the last 10+ years. The only teams to score under 70 in Ohio have been Solon in 2012/2013 (68 and 52 points). Those teams won nationals both years. I know you can't cherrypick events like that, but I still feel like Mason is a top 3 team for sure.
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