Unofficial Rankings C

uictoria1
Member
Member
Posts: 20
Joined: May 21st, 2016, 10:23 am

Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby uictoria1 » April 29th, 2018, 8:45 am

I think many of these rankings might be overestimating Mason by 2-5 places. They have definitely had an amazing season, including a stellar performance at the Ohio State Tournament yesterday. However, if history is any guide, first time qualifiers tend to under-perform in their debut at the National Tournament. I think we can all agree Nationals presents a unique challenge in logistics, rules, and test style. There is a steep learning curve associated with it.

I definitely think Mason can make the impressive move of placing in the top 10 their first time at Nationals, and quite possibly in the top 5. They could certainly come in third as many of these rankings predict. But I think a third place performance is closer to the upper end of their potential, not the mean.

Additionally, I think if you are looking for a viable challenger to Troy, you are more likely to find it among the old guard. Harriton seems like the most likely candidate. Bad luck for Troy along with unexpectedly strong performances from several other teams (e.g. 7L, Solon) could potentially allow a dark horse win, although this seems less likely.

User avatar
Alex-RCHS
Member
Member
Posts: 532
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:46 pm
Division: C
State: NC
Location: Raleigh, NC

Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Alex-RCHS » April 29th, 2018, 10:21 am

However, if history is any guide, first time qualifiers tend to under-perform in their debut at the National Tournament.
I would think that Mason's experience at MIT makes this less of an issue. Also, that usually applies to lower-tier teams. I don't think we've ever seen a situation where a team that's never been to nationals before beats the previous year's second and third place teams.
About me!
Raleigh Charter HS (NC) 2018
UNC-Chapel Hill 2022

uictoria1
Member
Member
Posts: 20
Joined: May 21st, 2016, 10:23 am

Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby uictoria1 » April 29th, 2018, 11:53 am

However, if history is any guide, first time qualifiers tend to under-perform in their debut at the National Tournament.
I would think that Mason's experience at MIT makes this less of an issue. Also, that usually applies to lower-tier teams. I don't think we've ever seen a situation where a team that's never been to nationals before beats the previous year's second and third place teams.
I fully agree their MIT performance helps them in my estimation. But a lot can change between January and May, especially because invitationals may have a different mix of students competing than actually is on the final state/national team for a school. Additionally, some schools stack during invitational season, while others do not. There are a lot of moving pieces.

I'm always very cautious/skeptical about teams who don't consistently go to Nationals. Look at Mentor High School from last year, who won their state tournament, then fell way behind Solon at Nationals. It's hard to pinpoint exactly why this happened - I don't believe they were missing an key team members at Nationals, for example. Yet they saw a large drop-off in their performance.

I don't expect to see this same slide for Mason, in part because of their strong MIT performance. But I can't see any way in which being new to Nationals helps, and there are many ways it can hurt.

User avatar
Unome
Moderator
Moderator
Posts: 4127
Joined: January 26th, 2014, 12:48 pm
Division: Grad
State: GA
Location: somewhere in the sciolyverse

Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Unome » April 29th, 2018, 11:59 am

However, if history is any guide, first time qualifiers tend to under-perform in their debut at the National Tournament.
I would think that Mason's experience at MIT makes this less of an issue. Also, that usually applies to lower-tier teams. I don't think we've ever seen a situation where a team that's never been to nationals before beats the previous year's second and third place teams.
I fully agree their MIT performance helps them in my estimation. But a lot can change between January and May, especially because invitationals may have a different mix of students competing than actually is on the final state/national team for a school. Additionally, some schools stack during invitational season, while others do not. There are a lot of moving pieces.

I'm always very cautious/skeptical about teams who don't consistently go to Nationals. Look at Mentor High School from last year, who won their state tournament, then fell way behind Solon at Nationals. It's hard to pinpoint exactly why this happened - I don't believe they were missing an key team members at Nationals, for example. Yet they saw a large drop-off in their performance.

I don't expect to see this same slide for Mason, in part because of their strong MIT performance. But I can't see any way in which being new to Nationals helps, and there are many ways it can hurt.
Mentor is easy to explain - it's less about them doing well and more about Solon bombing Optics and WIDI. Mentor pretty much fell exactly within expectations last year. I do agree that Mason doesn't have the same level of consistency as they may need to do well, but their strong events are very strong - which is why I would still rank them at least 5th.
Userpage
Chattahoochee High School Class of 2018
Georgia Tech Class of 2022

Opinions expressed on this site are not official; the only place for official rules changes and FAQs is soinc.org.

User avatar
Alex-RCHS
Member
Member
Posts: 532
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:46 pm
Division: C
State: NC
Location: Raleigh, NC

Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Alex-RCHS » April 29th, 2018, 12:20 pm

I would think that Mason's experience at MIT makes this less of an issue. Also, that usually applies to lower-tier teams. I don't think we've ever seen a situation where a team that's never been to nationals before beats the previous year's second and third place teams.
I fully agree their MIT performance helps them in my estimation. But a lot can change between January and May, especially because invitationals may have a different mix of students competing than actually is on the final state/national team for a school. Additionally, some schools stack during invitational season, while others do not. There are a lot of moving pieces.

I'm always very cautious/skeptical about teams who don't consistently go to Nationals. Look at Mentor High School from last year, who won their state tournament, then fell way behind Solon at Nationals. It's hard to pinpoint exactly why this happened - I don't believe they were missing an key team members at Nationals, for example. Yet they saw a large drop-off in their performance.

I don't expect to see this same slide for Mason, in part because of their strong MIT performance. But I can't see any way in which being new to Nationals helps, and there are many ways it can hurt.
Mentor is easy to explain - it's less about them doing well and more about Solon bombing Optics and WIDI. Mentor pretty much fell exactly within expectations last year. I do agree that Mason doesn't have the same level of consistency as they may need to do well, but their strong events are very strong - which is why I would still rank them at least 5th.
But if you look at the Ohio results, Mason placed top 4 in every event except Helicopters, which they bombed probably by accident (they placed second at MIT in that event, so they're definitely good). I think Mason is actually very consistent. They've competed against top teams in January and in April and done extremely well both times; they seem very consistent to me.

I know this isn't a perfect comparison, but consider this: if Mason had placed top 3 in Helicopters (based on MIT results, they should have) they would have scored UNDER 50 in Ohio, which has not happened in the last 10+ years. The only teams to score under 70 in Ohio have been Solon in 2012/2013 (68 and 52 points). Those teams won nationals both years. I know you can't cherrypick events like that, but I still feel like Mason is a top 3 team for sure.
About me!
Raleigh Charter HS (NC) 2018
UNC-Chapel Hill 2022

studybadly2018
Member
Member
Posts: 2
Joined: April 29th, 2018, 5:35 pm

Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby studybadly2018 » April 29th, 2018, 5:47 pm

Just some data for both the Ohio teams, I add Mentor for comparison purpose. Based on the data, I think Mason will likely be ahead of Solon in 2018 National ranking.

EVENT MIT (placed only) Ohio State final(placed only) Comments
Anatomy & Physiology Solon<<Mason<<Mentor Solon<<Mentor<<Mason Mason improved
Astronomy Only Mason ranked 4th Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Chemistry Lab No Ohio team ranked Solon<<Mason No comparison
Disease Detectives Mason<<Solon Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason improved
Dynamic Planet Only Mason ranked 3rd Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Ecology Only Mason ranked 1st Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Experimental Design Only Mentor ranked 1st Solon<<Mason<<Mentor Mentor improved
Fermi Questions No Ohio team ranked Mason<<Solon No comparison
Forensics No Ohio team ranked Mason<<Solon<<Mentor No comparison
Game On Only Mason ranked 1st Mason Mason keeps lead
Helicopters Only Mason ranked 2nd Solon (Mason bomb event) Mason bombed
Herpetology Only Mason ranked 3rd Solon<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Hovercraft No Ohio team ranked Mentor<<Solon<<Mason No comparison
Materials Science Mason<<Solon Mason<<Solon<<Mentor Mentor improved
Microbe Mission Solon<<Mason Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Mission Possible Mason<<Solon Mason<<Solon Solon keeps lead
Mousetrap Vehicle Only Mentor ranked 3rd Mason<<Mentor<<Solon Solon improved
Optics Solon<<Mason Solon<<Mason<<Mentor Mentor improved
Remote Sensing Only Mason ranked 2nd Mentor<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Rocks & Minerals Mason<<Solon Mentor<<Mason<<Solon Solon keeps lead
Thermodynamics No Ohio team ranked Solon<<Mentor<<Mason No comparison
Towers Only Mason ranked 6th Mason Mason keeps lead
Write It Do It Solon<<Mentor Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason improved

Event Solon<<Mason : 15
Event Mason<<Solon: 8

User avatar
kate!
Member
Member
Posts: 434
Joined: October 11th, 2017, 12:07 pm
Division: C
State: NY
Location: Ward Melville HS

Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby kate! » April 29th, 2018, 6:13 pm

Just some data for both the Ohio teams, I add Mentor for comparison purpose. Based on the data, I think Mason will likely be ahead of Solon in 2018 National ranking.

EVENT MIT (placed only) Ohio State final(placed only) Comments
Anatomy & Physiology Solon<<Mason<<Mentor Solon<<Mentor<<Mason Mason improved
Astronomy Only Mason ranked 4th Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Chemistry Lab No Ohio team ranked Solon<<Mason No comparison
Disease Detectives Mason<<Solon Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason improved
Dynamic Planet Only Mason ranked 3rd Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Ecology Only Mason ranked 1st Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Experimental Design Only Mentor ranked 1st Solon<<Mason<<Mentor Mentor improved
Fermi Questions No Ohio team ranked Mason<<Solon No comparison
Forensics No Ohio team ranked Mason<<Solon<<Mentor No comparison
Game On Only Mason ranked 1st Mason Mason keeps lead
Helicopters Only Mason ranked 2nd Solon (Mason bomb event) Mason bombed
Herpetology Only Mason ranked 3rd Solon<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Hovercraft No Ohio team ranked Mentor<<Solon<<Mason No comparison
Materials Science Mason<<Solon Mason<<Solon<<Mentor Mentor improved
Microbe Mission Solon<<Mason Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Mission Possible Mason<<Solon Mason<<Solon Solon keeps lead
Mousetrap Vehicle Only Mentor ranked 3rd Mason<<Mentor<<Solon Solon improved
Optics Solon<<Mason Solon<<Mason<<Mentor Mentor improved
Remote Sensing Only Mason ranked 2nd Mentor<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Rocks & Minerals Mason<<Solon Mentor<<Mason<<Solon Solon keeps lead
Thermodynamics No Ohio team ranked Solon<<Mentor<<Mason No comparison
Towers Only Mason ranked 6th Mason Mason keeps lead
Write It Do It Solon<<Mentor Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason improved

Event Solon<<Mason : 15
Event Mason<<Solon: 8
This is very oddly formatted even though when you quote it it looks better so I'll fix it:
[b]EVENT[/b]-----------------------[b]MIT (placed only)[/b]-------------[b]Ohio State final(placed only)[/b]----[b]Comments[/b]
[i]Anatomy & Physiology[/i]----Solon<<Mason<<Mentor---Solon<<Mentor<<Mason---------Mason improved
[i]Astronomy[/i]-------------------Only Mason ranked 4th------Mentor<<Solon<<Mason--------Mason keeps lead
[i]Chemistry Lab[/i]--------------No Ohio team ranked--------Solon<<Mason----------------------No comparison
[i]Disease Detectives[/i]--------Mason<<Solon----------------Mentor<<Solon<<Mason---------Mason improved
[i]Dynamic Planet[/i]------------Only Mason ranked 3rd-----Mentor<<Solon<<Mason---------Mason keeps lead
[i]Ecology[/i]----------------------Only Mason ranked 1st------Mentor<<Solon<<Mason---------Mason keeps lead
[i]Experimental Design[/i]-----Only Mentor ranked 1st------Solon<<Mason<<Mentor--------Mentor improved
[i]Fermi Questions[/i]-----------No Ohio team ranked--------Mason<<Solon---------------------No comparison
[i]Forensics[/i]--------------------No Ohio team ranked--------Mason<<Solon<<Mentor--------No comparison
[i]Game On[/i]--------------------Only Mason ranked 1st------Mason--------------------------------Mason keeps lead
[i]Helicopters[/i]------------------Only Mason ranked 2nd-----Solon (Mason bomb event)-----Mason bombed
[i]Herpetology[/i]-----------------Only Mason ranked 3rd------Solon<<Mason--------------------Mason keeps lead
[i]Hovercraft[/i]-------------------No Ohio team ranked---------Mentor<<Solon<<Mason-------No comparison
[i]Materials Science[/i]---------Mason<<Solon-----------------Mason<<Solon<<Mentor-------Mentor improved
[i]Microbe Mission[/i]-----------Solon<<Mason-----------------Mentor<<Solon<<Mason--------Mason keeps lead
[i]Mission Possible[/i]-----------Mason<<Solon----------------Mason<<Solon---------------------Solon keeps lead
[i]Mousetrap Vehicle[/i]---------Only Mentor ranked 3rd-----Mason<<Mentor<<Solon-------Solon improved
[i]Optics[/i]-------------------------Solon<<Mason----------------Solon<<Mason<<Mentor-------Mentor improved
[i]Remote Sensing[/i]-----------Only Mason ranked 2nd-----Mentor<<Mason------------------Mason keeps lead
[i]Rocks & Minerals[/i]----------Mason<<Solon----------------Mentor<<Mason<<Solon--------Solon keeps lead
[i]Thermodynamics[/i]----------No Ohio team ranked--------Solon<<Mentor<<Mason--------No comparison
[i]Towers[/i]-----------------------Only Mason ranked 6th------Mason--------------------------------Mason keeps lead
[i]Write It Do It[/i]----------------Solon<<Mentor-----------------Mentor<<Solon<<Mason--------Mason improved
Two years ago I knew stuff about rocks, minerals, experiments, and ecosystems, yay!
Last year I knew stuff about amphibians, reptiles, freshwater, and more experiments, yay again!
Now I'm learning stuff about oceanography, saltwater, and birds, yay for the third time!

Crtomir
Member
Member
Posts: 149
Joined: April 11th, 2017, 1:24 pm
Division: B
State: OH
Location: Watts Middle School, Centerville, OH
Contact:

Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Crtomir » April 30th, 2018, 1:47 pm

But if you look at the Ohio results, Mason placed top 4 in every event except Helicopters, which they bombed probably by accident (they placed second at MIT in that event, so they're definitely good). I think Mason is actually very consistent. They've competed against top teams in January and in April and done extremely well both times; they seem very consistent to me.

I know this isn't a perfect comparison, but consider this: if Mason had placed top 3 in Helicopters (based on MIT results, they should have) they would have scored UNDER 50 in Ohio, which has not happened in the last 10+ years. The only teams to score under 70 in Ohio have been Solon in 2012/2013 (68 and 52 points). Those teams won nationals both years. I know you can't cherrypick events like that, but I still feel like Mason is a top 3 team for sure.
Mason truly dominated at the Ohio State Tournament. They crushed the competition. They are STRONG. Now, Solon cannot be underestimated either. They always work hard and do well at Nationals. So I'm not sure Mason will win it all, but they can take 2nd at least. And if Solon works as hard as I think they will, they could pull up to 3rd.

ET2020
Member
Member
Posts: 35
Joined: April 16th, 2018, 11:35 am
Division: C
State: NY

Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby ET2020 » April 30th, 2018, 5:01 pm

Guess I'll make an updated prediction now that states results are out.

1. Troy
2. Solon
3. Harriton
4. Mason
5. Seven Lakes
6. Mounds View
7. Mira Loma
8. Northville
9. New Trier
10. Fayetteville-Manlius
11. Columbia
12. Acton-Boxborough
13. Adlai Stevenson
14. Grand Haven
15. Carmel

I think Solon will rise after just barely losing States, as the loss may serve as extra motivation. Mason looks better than Solon and Harriton right now but may slide slightly as they celebrate their first ever state win. Seven Lakes had to work extra hard just to make it to nats, with Texas losing a bid, so they should also be top 5.
Fayetteville Manlius High School
Class of 2020

a boy
Member
Member
Posts: 21
Joined: May 3rd, 2016, 3:19 pm
Division: Grad
State: TX

Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby a boy » May 2nd, 2018, 4:02 pm

1. Mason :?:
2. Troy
3. Harriton
4. Seven Lakes
5. Mira Loma
6. Solon
7. Mounds View
8. New Trier
9. Northville
10. Fayetteville-Manlius
:mrgreen:
Clements '17
working on scoresheets.io


Return to “2018 Nationals”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests