Unofficial Rankings C

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby studybadly2018 » April 29th, 2018, 5:47 pm

Just some data for both the Ohio teams, I add Mentor for comparison purpose. Based on the data, I think Mason will likely be ahead of Solon in 2018 National ranking.

EVENT MIT (placed only) Ohio State final(placed only) Comments
Anatomy & Physiology Solon<<Mason<<Mentor Solon<<Mentor<<Mason Mason improved
Astronomy Only Mason ranked 4th Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Chemistry Lab No Ohio team ranked Solon<<Mason No comparison
Disease Detectives Mason<<Solon Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason improved
Dynamic Planet Only Mason ranked 3rd Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Ecology Only Mason ranked 1st Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Experimental Design Only Mentor ranked 1st Solon<<Mason<<Mentor Mentor improved
Fermi Questions No Ohio team ranked Mason<<Solon No comparison
Forensics No Ohio team ranked Mason<<Solon<<Mentor No comparison
Game On Only Mason ranked 1st Mason Mason keeps lead
Helicopters Only Mason ranked 2nd Solon (Mason bomb event) Mason bombed
Herpetology Only Mason ranked 3rd Solon<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Hovercraft No Ohio team ranked Mentor<<Solon<<Mason No comparison
Materials Science Mason<<Solon Mason<<Solon<<Mentor Mentor improved
Microbe Mission Solon<<Mason Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Mission Possible Mason<<Solon Mason<<Solon Solon keeps lead
Mousetrap Vehicle Only Mentor ranked 3rd Mason<<Mentor<<Solon Solon improved
Optics Solon<<Mason Solon<<Mason<<Mentor Mentor improved
Remote Sensing Only Mason ranked 2nd Mentor<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Rocks & Minerals Mason<<Solon Mentor<<Mason<<Solon Solon keeps lead
Thermodynamics No Ohio team ranked Solon<<Mentor<<Mason No comparison
Towers Only Mason ranked 6th Mason Mason keeps lead
Write It Do It Solon<<Mentor Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason improved

Event Solon<<Mason : 15
Event Mason<<Solon: 8

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby kate! » April 29th, 2018, 6:13 pm

studybadly2018 wrote:Just some data for both the Ohio teams, I add Mentor for comparison purpose. Based on the data, I think Mason will likely be ahead of Solon in 2018 National ranking.

EVENT MIT (placed only) Ohio State final(placed only) Comments
Anatomy & Physiology Solon<<Mason<<Mentor Solon<<Mentor<<Mason Mason improved
Astronomy Only Mason ranked 4th Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Chemistry Lab No Ohio team ranked Solon<<Mason No comparison
Disease Detectives Mason<<Solon Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason improved
Dynamic Planet Only Mason ranked 3rd Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Ecology Only Mason ranked 1st Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Experimental Design Only Mentor ranked 1st Solon<<Mason<<Mentor Mentor improved
Fermi Questions No Ohio team ranked Mason<<Solon No comparison
Forensics No Ohio team ranked Mason<<Solon<<Mentor No comparison
Game On Only Mason ranked 1st Mason Mason keeps lead
Helicopters Only Mason ranked 2nd Solon (Mason bomb event) Mason bombed
Herpetology Only Mason ranked 3rd Solon<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Hovercraft No Ohio team ranked Mentor<<Solon<<Mason No comparison
Materials Science Mason<<Solon Mason<<Solon<<Mentor Mentor improved
Microbe Mission Solon<<Mason Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Mission Possible Mason<<Solon Mason<<Solon Solon keeps lead
Mousetrap Vehicle Only Mentor ranked 3rd Mason<<Mentor<<Solon Solon improved
Optics Solon<<Mason Solon<<Mason<<Mentor Mentor improved
Remote Sensing Only Mason ranked 2nd Mentor<<Mason Mason keeps lead
Rocks & Minerals Mason<<Solon Mentor<<Mason<<Solon Solon keeps lead
Thermodynamics No Ohio team ranked Solon<<Mentor<<Mason No comparison
Towers Only Mason ranked 6th Mason Mason keeps lead
Write It Do It Solon<<Mentor Mentor<<Solon<<Mason Mason improved

Event Solon<<Mason : 15
Event Mason<<Solon: 8

This is very oddly formatted even though when you quote it it looks better so I'll fix it:
here
EVENT-----------------------MIT (placed only)-------------Ohio State final(placed only)----Comments
Anatomy & Physiology----Solon<<Mason<<Mentor---Solon<<Mentor<<Mason---------Mason improved
Astronomy-------------------Only Mason ranked 4th------Mentor<<Solon<<Mason--------Mason keeps lead
Chemistry Lab--------------No Ohio team ranked--------Solon<<Mason----------------------No comparison
Disease Detectives--------Mason<<Solon----------------Mentor<<Solon<<Mason---------Mason improved
Dynamic Planet------------Only Mason ranked 3rd-----Mentor<<Solon<<Mason---------Mason keeps lead
Ecology----------------------Only Mason ranked 1st------Mentor<<Solon<<Mason---------Mason keeps lead
Experimental Design-----Only Mentor ranked 1st------Solon<<Mason<<Mentor--------Mentor improved
Fermi Questions-----------No Ohio team ranked--------Mason<<Solon---------------------No comparison
Forensics--------------------No Ohio team ranked--------Mason<<Solon<<Mentor--------No comparison
Game On--------------------Only Mason ranked 1st------Mason--------------------------------Mason keeps lead
Helicopters------------------Only Mason ranked 2nd-----Solon (Mason bomb event)-----Mason bombed
Herpetology-----------------Only Mason ranked 3rd------Solon<<Mason--------------------Mason keeps lead
Hovercraft-------------------No Ohio team ranked---------Mentor<<Solon<<Mason-------No comparison
Materials Science---------Mason<<Solon-----------------Mason<<Solon<<Mentor-------Mentor improved
Microbe Mission-----------Solon<<Mason-----------------Mentor<<Solon<<Mason--------Mason keeps lead
Mission Possible-----------Mason<<Solon----------------Mason<<Solon---------------------Solon keeps lead
Mousetrap Vehicle---------Only Mentor ranked 3rd-----Mason<<Mentor<<Solon-------Solon improved
Optics-------------------------Solon<<Mason----------------Solon<<Mason<<Mentor-------Mentor improved
Remote Sensing-----------Only Mason ranked 2nd-----Mentor<<Mason------------------Mason keeps lead
Rocks & Minerals----------Mason<<Solon----------------Mentor<<Mason<<Solon--------Solon keeps lead
Thermodynamics----------No Ohio team ranked--------Solon<<Mentor<<Mason--------No comparison
Towers-----------------------Only Mason ranked 6th------Mason--------------------------------Mason keeps lead
Write It Do It----------------Solon<<Mentor-----------------Mentor<<Solon<<Mason--------Mason improved
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Crtomir » April 30th, 2018, 1:47 pm

Alex-RCHS wrote:But if you look at the Ohio results, Mason placed top 4 in every event except Helicopters, which they bombed probably by accident (they placed second at MIT in that event, so they're definitely good). I think Mason is actually very consistent. They've competed against top teams in January and in April and done extremely well both times; they seem very consistent to me.

I know this isn't a perfect comparison, but consider this: if Mason had placed top 3 in Helicopters (based on MIT results, they should have) they would have scored UNDER 50 in Ohio, which has not happened in the last 10+ years. The only teams to score under 70 in Ohio have been Solon in 2012/2013 (68 and 52 points). Those teams won nationals both years. I know you can't cherrypick events like that, but I still feel like Mason is a top 3 team for sure.


Mason truly dominated at the Ohio State Tournament. They crushed the competition. They are STRONG. Now, Solon cannot be underestimated either. They always work hard and do well at Nationals. So I'm not sure Mason will win it all, but they can take 2nd at least. And if Solon works as hard as I think they will, they could pull up to 3rd.

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby ET2020 » April 30th, 2018, 5:01 pm

Guess I'll make an updated prediction now that states results are out.

1. Troy
2. Solon
3. Harriton
4. Mason
5. Seven Lakes
6. Mounds View
7. Mira Loma
8. Northville
9. New Trier
10. Fayetteville-Manlius
11. Columbia
12. Acton-Boxborough
13. Adlai Stevenson
14. Grand Haven
15. Carmel

I think Solon will rise after just barely losing States, as the loss may serve as extra motivation. Mason looks better than Solon and Harriton right now but may slide slightly as they celebrate their first ever state win. Seven Lakes had to work extra hard just to make it to nats, with Texas losing a bid, so they should also be top 5.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby a boy » May 2nd, 2018, 4:02 pm

1. Mason :?:
2. Troy
3. Harriton
4. Seven Lakes
5. Mira Loma
6. Solon
7. Mounds View
8. New Trier
9. Northville
10. Fayetteville-Manlius
:mrgreen:
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby kate! » May 2nd, 2018, 4:12 pm

a boy wrote:1. Mason :?:
2. Troy
3. Harriton
4. Seven Lakes
5. Mira Loma
6. Solon
7. Mounds View
8. New Trier
9. Northville
10. Fayetteville-Manlius
:mrgreen:

I'm not too experience with div C predictions, but I can say for a fact that Mason will not win. They are a positively amazing team that defied all odds at state, but they have no nationals experience whatsoever. Troy has some 20 years (probably more) of nationals experience and wins almost every single year. I doubt they'd be displaced this year. Also, Solon is a little too low, in my opinion. Maybe I'm comparing them with their div B counterpart, but they won't get below 5th.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Riptide » May 2nd, 2018, 4:26 pm

kate! wrote:
a boy wrote:1. Mason :?:
2. Troy
3. Harriton
4. Seven Lakes
5. Mira Loma
6. Solon
7. Mounds View
8. New Trier
9. Northville
10. Fayetteville-Manlius
:mrgreen:

I'm not too experience with div C predictions, but I can say for a fact that Mason will not win. They are a positively amazing team that defied all odds at state, but they have no nationals experience whatsoever. Troy has some 20 years (probably more) of nationals experience and wins almost every single year. I doubt they'd be displaced this year. Also, Solon is a little too low, in my opinion. Maybe I'm comparing them with their div B counterpart, but they won't get below 5th.

If you look at MIT, Mason was 2nd to Troy by 85 points. 66 points came from Experimental Design and Fermi Questions. Mason had strong placings in practically every other event. They recently placed 3rd in both those events at state. Maybe something went wrong that day for them at MIT in those events or they just improved in those events a lot, but if they continue their strong placings in nearly all events, and EXD and Fermi placings are higher than MIT, the margin between Mason and Troy becomes very small. One bomb from Troy or even just overall amazing placings from Mason could boost them over Troy. It’s quite possible that Mason gets 1st this year in my opinion.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby pb5754[] » May 2nd, 2018, 4:38 pm

Riptide wrote:
kate! wrote:
a boy wrote:1. Mason :?:
2. Troy
3. Harriton
4. Seven Lakes
5. Mira Loma
6. Solon
7. Mounds View
8. New Trier
9. Northville
10. Fayetteville-Manlius
:mrgreen:

I'm not too experience with div C predictions, but I can say for a fact that Mason will not win. They are a positively amazing team that defied all odds at state, but they have no nationals experience whatsoever. Troy has some 20 years (probably more) of nationals experience and wins almost every single year. I doubt they'd be displaced this year. Also, Solon is a little too low, in my opinion. Maybe I'm comparing them with their div B counterpart, but they won't get below 5th.

If you look at MIT, Mason was 2nd to Troy by 85 points. 66 points came from Experimental Design and Fermi Questions. Mason had strong placings in practically every other event. They recently placed 3rd in both those events at state. Maybe something went wrong that day for them at MIT in those events or they just improved in those events a lot, but if they continue their strong placings in nearly all events, and EXD and Fermi placings are higher than MIT, the margin between Mason and Troy becomes very small. One bomb from Troy or even just overall amazing placings from Mason could boost them over Troy. It’s quite possible that Mason gets 1st this year in my opinion.

I feel like if there is one year where a first-time nats team is gonna win, it will be Mason this year. As Riptide pointed out, Mason is incredibly strong this year, and some unfortunate accident on Troy's team can mean that Mason will win (assuming Mason has no slip-ups).

And yeah, Solon is too low and Mira Loma seems to be too high.

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby 4Head » May 2nd, 2018, 4:46 pm

Riptide wrote:
kate! wrote:
a boy wrote:1. Mason :?:
2. Troy
3. Harriton
4. Seven Lakes
5. Mira Loma
6. Solon
7. Mounds View
8. New Trier
9. Northville
10. Fayetteville-Manlius
:mrgreen:

I'm not too experience with div C predictions, but I can say for a fact that Mason will not win. They are a positively amazing team that defied all odds at state, but they have no nationals experience whatsoever. Troy has some 20 years (probably more) of nationals experience and wins almost every single year. I doubt they'd be displaced this year. Also, Solon is a little too low, in my opinion. Maybe I'm comparing them with their div B counterpart, but they won't get below 5th.

If you look at MIT, Mason was 2nd to Troy by 85 points. 66 points came from Experimental Design and Fermi Questions. Mason had strong placings in practically every other event. They recently placed 3rd in both those events at state. Maybe something went wrong that day for them at MIT in those events or they just improved in those events a lot, but if they continue their strong placings in nearly all events, and EXD and Fermi placings are higher than MIT, the margin between Mason and Troy becomes very small. One bomb from Troy or even just overall amazing placings from Mason could boost them over Troy. It’s quite possible that Mason gets 1st this year in my opinion.

You could say the exact same for practically every team in his top 6, excluding Troy, especially Solon. They’re criminally low, making me think he’s partially joking.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Unome » May 2nd, 2018, 5:23 pm

4Head wrote:
Riptide wrote:
kate! wrote:I'm not too experience with div C predictions, but I can say for a fact that Mason will not win. They are a positively amazing team that defied all odds at state, but they have no nationals experience whatsoever. Troy has some 20 years (probably more) of nationals experience and wins almost every single year. I doubt they'd be displaced this year. Also, Solon is a little too low, in my opinion. Maybe I'm comparing them with their div B counterpart, but they won't get below 5th.

If you look at MIT, Mason was 2nd to Troy by 85 points. 66 points came from Experimental Design and Fermi Questions. Mason had strong placings in practically every other event. They recently placed 3rd in both those events at state. Maybe something went wrong that day for them at MIT in those events or they just improved in those events a lot, but if they continue their strong placings in nearly all events, and EXD and Fermi placings are higher than MIT, the margin between Mason and Troy becomes very small. One bomb from Troy or even just overall amazing placings from Mason could boost them over Troy. It’s quite possible that Mason gets 1st this year in my opinion.

You could say the exact same for practically every team in his top 6, excluding Troy, especially Solon. They’re criminally low, making me think he’s partially joking.

Honestly this fully applies to Mounds View as well, who looks really strong this year.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Alex-RCHS » May 2nd, 2018, 6:25 pm

Riptide wrote:
kate! wrote:
a boy wrote:1. Mason :?:
2. Troy
3. Harriton
4. Seven Lakes
5. Mira Loma
6. Solon
7. Mounds View
8. New Trier
9. Northville
10. Fayetteville-Manlius
:mrgreen:

I'm not too experience with div C predictions, but I can say for a fact that Mason will not win. They are a positively amazing team that defied all odds at state, but they have no nationals experience whatsoever. Troy has some 20 years (probably more) of nationals experience and wins almost every single year. I doubt they'd be displaced this year. Also, Solon is a little too low, in my opinion. Maybe I'm comparing them with their div B counterpart, but they won't get below 5th.

If you look at MIT, Mason was 2nd to Troy by 85 points. 66 points came from Experimental Design and Fermi Questions. Mason had strong placings in practically every other event. They recently placed 3rd in both those events at state. Maybe something went wrong that day for them at MIT in those events or they just improved in those events a lot, but if they continue their strong placings in nearly all events, and EXD and Fermi placings are higher than MIT, the margin between Mason and Troy becomes very small. One bomb from Troy or even just overall amazing placings from Mason could boost them over Troy. It’s quite possible that Mason gets 1st this year in my opinion.

This is true (and I do think that there is a *CHANCE* that Mason beats Troy) but if you're going to cherrypick events you have to keep in mind that Troy picked up 39 points from Optics and Fermi, but placed 5th in both of those at SoCal States. I would agree that Mason has probably improved more since MIT than Troy, but not that much more. Troy is still the favorite by a significant margin, but Mason certainly does have a chance if Troy bombs one or two events. But I think Troy bombing is going to be necessary for Mason to catch them.

4Head wrote:You could say the exact same for practically every team in his top 6, excluding Troy, especially Solon. They’re criminally low, making me think he’s partially joking.

Eh, I disagree. I think the same argument could be made for Harriton (although I think the argument is *more* applicable to Mason) but I don't see any other team with the consistency and excellence shown by Mason between MIT and OH states (except Troy and, less so, Harriton).
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby allopathie » May 2nd, 2018, 6:57 pm

Alex-RCHS wrote:Eh, I disagree. I think the same argument could be made for Harriton (although I think the argument is *more* applicable to Mason) but I don't see any other team with the consistency and excellence shown by Mason between MIT and OH states (except Troy and, less so, Harriton).


72 of Harriton's points at MIT were from Copters and Mission, both build events as opposed to Fermi and ED, both inquiry events. However, Harriton and top teams in general, including Troy, Mira Loma, and New Trier, tend to do poorly (i.e. 20th+) in ED because of the unpredictability of scoring and the labs themselves, and we have no way of telling how Mason will perform at ED there especially because they haven't done ED at nationals before. Mason could also very well experience what LASA did last year in Ecology and place 41st (Clements placed 35th, Mounds View 30th), and I don't think the supervisor or the test format for Ecology will change this year.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Alex-RCHS » May 2nd, 2018, 7:23 pm

allopathie wrote:
Alex-RCHS wrote:Eh, I disagree. I think the same argument could be made for Harriton (although I think the argument is *more* applicable to Mason) but I don't see any other team with the consistency and excellence shown by Mason between MIT and OH states (except Troy and, less so, Harriton).


72 of Harriton's points at MIT were from Copters and Mission, both build events as opposed to Fermi and ED, both inquiry events. However, Harriton and top teams in general, including Troy, Mira Loma, and New Trier, tend to do poorly (i.e. 20th+) in ED because of the unpredictability of scoring and the labs themselves, and we have no way of telling how Mason will perform at ED there especially because they haven't done ED at nationals before. Mason could also very well experience what LASA did last year in Ecology and place 41st (Clements placed 35th, Mounds View 30th), and I don't think the supervisor or the test format for Ecology will change this year.

That's true, and I hadn't looked at Harriton's MIT builds very closely before. I certainly think the top 3 will be Troy, Mason and Harriton, and I see Mason and Harriton as very close.

I certainly hope that they'll change the Eco proctor somehow.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby pb5754[] » May 2nd, 2018, 8:42 pm

Alex-RCHS wrote:
allopathie wrote:
Alex-RCHS wrote:Eh, I disagree. I think the same argument could be made for Harriton (although I think the argument is *more* applicable to Mason) but I don't see any other team with the consistency and excellence shown by Mason between MIT and OH states (except Troy and, less so, Harriton).


72 of Harriton's points at MIT were from Copters and Mission, both build events as opposed to Fermi and ED, both inquiry events. However, Harriton and top teams in general, including Troy, Mira Loma, and New Trier, tend to do poorly (i.e. 20th+) in ED because of the unpredictability of scoring and the labs themselves, and we have no way of telling how Mason will perform at ED there especially because they haven't done ED at nationals before. Mason could also very well experience what LASA did last year in Ecology and place 41st (Clements placed 35th, Mounds View 30th), and I don't think the supervisor or the test format for Ecology will change this year.

That's true, and I hadn't looked at Harriton's MIT builds very closely before. I certainly think the top 3 will be Troy, Mason and Harriton, and I see Mason and Harriton as very close.

I certainly hope that they'll change the Eco proctor somehow.

What happened in Ecology last year?

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby pikachu4919 » May 2nd, 2018, 9:00 pm

pb5754[] wrote:
Alex-RCHS wrote:
allopathie wrote:
72 of Harriton's points at MIT were from Copters and Mission, both build events as opposed to Fermi and ED, both inquiry events. However, Harriton and top teams in general, including Troy, Mira Loma, and New Trier, tend to do poorly (i.e. 20th+) in ED because of the unpredictability of scoring and the labs themselves, and we have no way of telling how Mason will perform at ED there especially because they haven't done ED at nationals before. Mason could also very well experience what LASA did last year in Ecology and place 41st (Clements placed 35th, Mounds View 30th), and I don't think the supervisor or the test format for Ecology will change this year.

That's true, and I hadn't looked at Harriton's MIT builds very closely before. I certainly think the top 3 will be Troy, Mason and Harriton, and I see Mason and Harriton as very close.

I certainly hope that they'll change the Eco proctor somehow.

What happened in Ecology last year?


There’s an extremely long essay from varunscs11 on that in the 2017 nats test discussion thread, go read that plus some other reviews that were also in the thread
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