4. Seven Lakes
5. Mira Loma
7. Mounds View
8. New Trier
I'm not too experience with div C predictions, but I can say for a fact that Mason will not
win. They are a positively amazing team that defied all odds at state, but they have no nationals experience whatsoever. Troy has some 20 years (probably more) of nationals experience and wins almost every single year. I doubt they'd be displaced this year. Also, Solon is a little too low, in my opinion. Maybe I'm comparing them with their div B counterpart, but they won't get below 5th.
If you look at MIT, Mason was 2nd to Troy by 85 points. 66 points came from Experimental Design and Fermi Questions. Mason had strong placings in practically every other event. They recently placed 3rd in both those events at state. Maybe something went wrong that day for them at MIT in those events or they just improved in those events a lot, but if they continue their strong placings in nearly all events, and EXD and Fermi placings are higher than MIT, the margin between Mason and Troy becomes very small. One bomb from Troy or even just overall amazing placings from Mason could boost them over Troy. It’s quite possible that Mason gets 1st this year in my opinion.
This is true (and I do think that there is a *CHANCE* that Mason beats Troy) but if you're going to cherrypick events you have to keep in mind that Troy picked up 39 points from Optics and Fermi, but placed 5th in both of those at SoCal States. I would agree that Mason has probably improved more since MIT than Troy, but not that
much more. Troy is still the favorite by a significant margin, but Mason certainly does have a chance if Troy bombs one or two events. But I think Troy bombing is going to be necessary for Mason to catch them.
You could say the exact same for practically every team in his top 6, excluding Troy, especially Solon. They’re criminally low, making me think he’s partially joking.
Eh, I disagree. I think the same argument could be made for Harriton (although I think the argument is *more* applicable to Mason) but I don't see any other team with the consistency and excellence shown by Mason between MIT and OH states (except Troy and, less so, Harriton).