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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Posted: May 2nd, 2018, 4:12 pm
by kate!
a boy wrote:1. Mason :?:
2. Troy
3. Harriton
4. Seven Lakes
5. Mira Loma
6. Solon
7. Mounds View
8. New Trier
9. Northville
10. Fayetteville-Manlius
:mrgreen:
I'm not too experience with div C predictions, but I can say for a fact that Mason will not win. They are a positively amazing team that defied all odds at state, but they have no nationals experience whatsoever. Troy has some 20 years (probably more) of nationals experience and wins almost every single year. I doubt they'd be displaced this year. Also, Solon is a little too low, in my opinion. Maybe I'm comparing them with their div B counterpart, but they won't get below 5th.

Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Posted: May 2nd, 2018, 4:26 pm
by Riptide
kate! wrote:
a boy wrote:1. Mason :?:
2. Troy
3. Harriton
4. Seven Lakes
5. Mira Loma
6. Solon
7. Mounds View
8. New Trier
9. Northville
10. Fayetteville-Manlius
:mrgreen:
I'm not too experience with div C predictions, but I can say for a fact that Mason will not win. They are a positively amazing team that defied all odds at state, but they have no nationals experience whatsoever. Troy has some 20 years (probably more) of nationals experience and wins almost every single year. I doubt they'd be displaced this year. Also, Solon is a little too low, in my opinion. Maybe I'm comparing them with their div B counterpart, but they won't get below 5th.
If you look at MIT, Mason was 2nd to Troy by 85 points. 66 points came from Experimental Design and Fermi Questions. Mason had strong placings in practically every other event. They recently placed 3rd in both those events at state. Maybe something went wrong that day for them at MIT in those events or they just improved in those events a lot, but if they continue their strong placings in nearly all events, and EXD and Fermi placings are higher than MIT, the margin between Mason and Troy becomes very small. One bomb from Troy or even just overall amazing placings from Mason could boost them over Troy. It’s quite possible that Mason gets 1st this year in my opinion.

Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Posted: May 2nd, 2018, 4:38 pm
by pb5754
Riptide wrote:
kate! wrote:
a boy wrote:1. Mason :?:
2. Troy
3. Harriton
4. Seven Lakes
5. Mira Loma
6. Solon
7. Mounds View
8. New Trier
9. Northville
10. Fayetteville-Manlius
:mrgreen:
I'm not too experience with div C predictions, but I can say for a fact that Mason will not win. They are a positively amazing team that defied all odds at state, but they have no nationals experience whatsoever. Troy has some 20 years (probably more) of nationals experience and wins almost every single year. I doubt they'd be displaced this year. Also, Solon is a little too low, in my opinion. Maybe I'm comparing them with their div B counterpart, but they won't get below 5th.
If you look at MIT, Mason was 2nd to Troy by 85 points. 66 points came from Experimental Design and Fermi Questions. Mason had strong placings in practically every other event. They recently placed 3rd in both those events at state. Maybe something went wrong that day for them at MIT in those events or they just improved in those events a lot, but if they continue their strong placings in nearly all events, and EXD and Fermi placings are higher than MIT, the margin between Mason and Troy becomes very small. One bomb from Troy or even just overall amazing placings from Mason could boost them over Troy. It’s quite possible that Mason gets 1st this year in my opinion.
I feel like if there is one year where a first-time nats team is gonna win, it will be Mason this year. As Riptide pointed out, Mason is incredibly strong this year, and some unfortunate accident on Troy's team can mean that Mason will win (assuming Mason has no slip-ups).

And yeah, Solon is too low and Mira Loma seems to be too high.

Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Posted: May 2nd, 2018, 4:46 pm
by 4Head
Riptide wrote:
kate! wrote:
a boy wrote:1. Mason :?:
2. Troy
3. Harriton
4. Seven Lakes
5. Mira Loma
6. Solon
7. Mounds View
8. New Trier
9. Northville
10. Fayetteville-Manlius
:mrgreen:
I'm not too experience with div C predictions, but I can say for a fact that Mason will not win. They are a positively amazing team that defied all odds at state, but they have no nationals experience whatsoever. Troy has some 20 years (probably more) of nationals experience and wins almost every single year. I doubt they'd be displaced this year. Also, Solon is a little too low, in my opinion. Maybe I'm comparing them with their div B counterpart, but they won't get below 5th.
If you look at MIT, Mason was 2nd to Troy by 85 points. 66 points came from Experimental Design and Fermi Questions. Mason had strong placings in practically every other event. They recently placed 3rd in both those events at state. Maybe something went wrong that day for them at MIT in those events or they just improved in those events a lot, but if they continue their strong placings in nearly all events, and EXD and Fermi placings are higher than MIT, the margin between Mason and Troy becomes very small. One bomb from Troy or even just overall amazing placings from Mason could boost them over Troy. It’s quite possible that Mason gets 1st this year in my opinion.
You could say the exact same for practically every team in his top 6, excluding Troy, especially Solon. They’re criminally low, making me think he’s partially joking.

Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Posted: May 2nd, 2018, 5:23 pm
by Unome
4Head wrote:
Riptide wrote:
kate! wrote: I'm not too experience with div C predictions, but I can say for a fact that Mason will not win. They are a positively amazing team that defied all odds at state, but they have no nationals experience whatsoever. Troy has some 20 years (probably more) of nationals experience and wins almost every single year. I doubt they'd be displaced this year. Also, Solon is a little too low, in my opinion. Maybe I'm comparing them with their div B counterpart, but they won't get below 5th.
If you look at MIT, Mason was 2nd to Troy by 85 points. 66 points came from Experimental Design and Fermi Questions. Mason had strong placings in practically every other event. They recently placed 3rd in both those events at state. Maybe something went wrong that day for them at MIT in those events or they just improved in those events a lot, but if they continue their strong placings in nearly all events, and EXD and Fermi placings are higher than MIT, the margin between Mason and Troy becomes very small. One bomb from Troy or even just overall amazing placings from Mason could boost them over Troy. It’s quite possible that Mason gets 1st this year in my opinion.
You could say the exact same for practically every team in his top 6, excluding Troy, especially Solon. They’re criminally low, making me think he’s partially joking.
Honestly this fully applies to Mounds View as well, who looks really strong this year.

Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Posted: May 2nd, 2018, 6:25 pm
by Alex-RCHS
Riptide wrote:
kate! wrote:
a boy wrote:1. Mason :?:
2. Troy
3. Harriton
4. Seven Lakes
5. Mira Loma
6. Solon
7. Mounds View
8. New Trier
9. Northville
10. Fayetteville-Manlius
:mrgreen:
I'm not too experience with div C predictions, but I can say for a fact that Mason will not win. They are a positively amazing team that defied all odds at state, but they have no nationals experience whatsoever. Troy has some 20 years (probably more) of nationals experience and wins almost every single year. I doubt they'd be displaced this year. Also, Solon is a little too low, in my opinion. Maybe I'm comparing them with their div B counterpart, but they won't get below 5th.
If you look at MIT, Mason was 2nd to Troy by 85 points. 66 points came from Experimental Design and Fermi Questions. Mason had strong placings in practically every other event. They recently placed 3rd in both those events at state. Maybe something went wrong that day for them at MIT in those events or they just improved in those events a lot, but if they continue their strong placings in nearly all events, and EXD and Fermi placings are higher than MIT, the margin between Mason and Troy becomes very small. One bomb from Troy or even just overall amazing placings from Mason could boost them over Troy. It’s quite possible that Mason gets 1st this year in my opinion.
This is true (and I do think that there is a *CHANCE* that Mason beats Troy) but if you're going to cherrypick events you have to keep in mind that Troy picked up 39 points from Optics and Fermi, but placed 5th in both of those at SoCal States. I would agree that Mason has probably improved more since MIT than Troy, but not that much more. Troy is still the favorite by a significant margin, but Mason certainly does have a chance if Troy bombs one or two events. But I think Troy bombing is going to be necessary for Mason to catch them.
4Head wrote: You could say the exact same for practically every team in his top 6, excluding Troy, especially Solon. They’re criminally low, making me think he’s partially joking.
Eh, I disagree. I think the same argument could be made for Harriton (although I think the argument is *more* applicable to Mason) but I don't see any other team with the consistency and excellence shown by Mason between MIT and OH states (except Troy and, less so, Harriton).

Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Posted: May 2nd, 2018, 6:57 pm
by allopathie
Alex-RCHS wrote: Eh, I disagree. I think the same argument could be made for Harriton (although I think the argument is *more* applicable to Mason) but I don't see any other team with the consistency and excellence shown by Mason between MIT and OH states (except Troy and, less so, Harriton).
72 of Harriton's points at MIT were from Copters and Mission, both build events as opposed to Fermi and ED, both inquiry events. However, Harriton and top teams in general, including Troy, Mira Loma, and New Trier, tend to do poorly (i.e. 20th+) in ED because of the unpredictability of scoring and the labs themselves, and we have no way of telling how Mason will perform at ED there especially because they haven't done ED at nationals before. Mason could also very well experience what LASA did last year in Ecology and place 41st (Clements placed 35th, Mounds View 30th), and I don't think the supervisor or the test format for Ecology will change this year.

Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Posted: May 2nd, 2018, 7:23 pm
by Alex-RCHS
allopathie wrote:
Alex-RCHS wrote: Eh, I disagree. I think the same argument could be made for Harriton (although I think the argument is *more* applicable to Mason) but I don't see any other team with the consistency and excellence shown by Mason between MIT and OH states (except Troy and, less so, Harriton).
72 of Harriton's points at MIT were from Copters and Mission, both build events as opposed to Fermi and ED, both inquiry events. However, Harriton and top teams in general, including Troy, Mira Loma, and New Trier, tend to do poorly (i.e. 20th+) in ED because of the unpredictability of scoring and the labs themselves, and we have no way of telling how Mason will perform at ED there especially because they haven't done ED at nationals before. Mason could also very well experience what LASA did last year in Ecology and place 41st (Clements placed 35th, Mounds View 30th), and I don't think the supervisor or the test format for Ecology will change this year.
That's true, and I hadn't looked at Harriton's MIT builds very closely before. I certainly think the top 3 will be Troy, Mason and Harriton, and I see Mason and Harriton as very close.

I certainly hope that they'll change the Eco proctor somehow.

Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Posted: May 2nd, 2018, 8:42 pm
by pb5754
Alex-RCHS wrote:
allopathie wrote:
Alex-RCHS wrote: Eh, I disagree. I think the same argument could be made for Harriton (although I think the argument is *more* applicable to Mason) but I don't see any other team with the consistency and excellence shown by Mason between MIT and OH states (except Troy and, less so, Harriton).
72 of Harriton's points at MIT were from Copters and Mission, both build events as opposed to Fermi and ED, both inquiry events. However, Harriton and top teams in general, including Troy, Mira Loma, and New Trier, tend to do poorly (i.e. 20th+) in ED because of the unpredictability of scoring and the labs themselves, and we have no way of telling how Mason will perform at ED there especially because they haven't done ED at nationals before. Mason could also very well experience what LASA did last year in Ecology and place 41st (Clements placed 35th, Mounds View 30th), and I don't think the supervisor or the test format for Ecology will change this year.
That's true, and I hadn't looked at Harriton's MIT builds very closely before. I certainly think the top 3 will be Troy, Mason and Harriton, and I see Mason and Harriton as very close.

I certainly hope that they'll change the Eco proctor somehow.
What happened in Ecology last year?

Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Posted: May 2nd, 2018, 9:00 pm
by pikachu4919
pb5754[] wrote:
Alex-RCHS wrote:
allopathie wrote:
72 of Harriton's points at MIT were from Copters and Mission, both build events as opposed to Fermi and ED, both inquiry events. However, Harriton and top teams in general, including Troy, Mira Loma, and New Trier, tend to do poorly (i.e. 20th+) in ED because of the unpredictability of scoring and the labs themselves, and we have no way of telling how Mason will perform at ED there especially because they haven't done ED at nationals before. Mason could also very well experience what LASA did last year in Ecology and place 41st (Clements placed 35th, Mounds View 30th), and I don't think the supervisor or the test format for Ecology will change this year.
That's true, and I hadn't looked at Harriton's MIT builds very closely before. I certainly think the top 3 will be Troy, Mason and Harriton, and I see Mason and Harriton as very close.

I certainly hope that they'll change the Eco proctor somehow.
What happened in Ecology last year?
There’s an extremely long essay from varunscs11 on that in the 2017 nats test discussion thread, go read that plus some other reviews that were also in the thread