Unofficial Rankings C

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Tailsfan101
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Tailsfan101 » May 3rd, 2018, 10:53 am

Here's my top 20 predictions:

1. Troy
2. Mason
3. Solon
4. Harriton
5. Mounds View
6. Seven Lakes
7. Northville
8. Mira Loma
9. New Trier
10. Adlai E. Stevenson
11. Fayetteville-Manlius
12. Acton-Boxborough
13. Columbia
14. WW-P North
15. Grand Haven
16. Carmel
17. Camas
18. Lower Merion
19. Brookwood
20. William G. Enloe

Honorable mentions: Chattahoochee, Ed W. Clark, Boca Raton, Pembroke Hill, Fossil Ridge, TJHSST
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DD: -/3/2/-
HD: 2/4/4/-
CB: 3/6/1/-
ELG: -/6/-/-
GLM: -/-/-/31
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby windu34 » May 6th, 2018, 5:50 pm

Modified the prediction spreadsheet from East and adapted it for nationals. I incorporated States, MIT, and Nationals scores from this year and last year to calculate subscores for each section and took a weighted sum of the subscores. Subscores were composed of raw performance based on competitiveness as well as an improvement factor.
Troy was a pretty clear leader, and Harriton was only marginally higher than Mason. Factors such as geography, tendency to under/over perform, and nationals experience were not considered as I would like to have a quantitative way to design such factors so that they do not become arbitrary.

Rank | School Name
1 Troy High School
2 Harriton High School
3 Mason High School
4 Solon High School
5 Acton-Boxborough Regional High School
6 Northville High School
7 Seven Lakes High School
8 Mounds View High School
9 Mira Loma High School
10 West Windsor-Plainsboro High School North
11 Columbia High School
12 Brookwood High School
13 Grand Haven High School
14 William G. Enloe High School
15 New Trier High School
16 Fayetteville-Manlius High School
17 Adlai E. Stevenson High School
18 Lower Merion High School
19 Carmel High School
20 Boca Raton Community High School
21 Pembroke Hill High School
22 Fossil Ridge High School
23 Auburn High School
24 Camas High School
25 Chattahoochee High School
26 Iolani School
27 Blue Valley North High School
28 Russell High School
29 Ed W. Clark High School
30 Lincoln Southwest High School
31 Thomas Jefferson High School for Science and Technology
32 The Charter School of Wilmington
33 Archimedean Upper Conservatory
34 Centennial High School
35 Madison West High School
36 University High School
37 Raleigh Charter High School
38 Barrington High School
39 Albuquerque Area Home Schoolers
40 Hopkins School
41 Mat-Su Career and Technical High School
42 Waynflete School
43 Farragut High School
44 Ames High School
45 Treasure Valley Homeschool
46 Casady School
47 National Cathedral School
48 St. Mary's Academy
49 Maple Mountain High School
50 St. Martin's Episcopal School
51 South Burlington High School
52 Yankton High School
53 Merrimack High School
54 Bismarck High School
55 Little Rock Central High School
56 Helena High School
57 Clinton High School
58 Thunder Basin High School
59 Parkersburg High School
60 Cathedral High School
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby EastStroudsburg13 » May 8th, 2018, 6:44 pm

As a comparison, here's how mine ranks the teams. I took more liberties in letting invitationals influence the rankings this year, so we'll see how they turn out!

Click for ranking
  1. Troy
  2. Harriton
  3. Solon
  4. Northville
  5. Mira Loma
  6. Mason
  7. Mounds View
  8. Seven Lakes
  9. New Trier
  10. Acton-Boxborough
  11. Adlai E. Stevenson
  12. Columbia
  13. West Windsor Plainsboro North
  14. Fayetteville-Manlius
  15. Brookwood
  16. Carmel
  17. Grand Haven
  18. Pembroke Hill
  19. Fossil Ridge
  20. William G. Enloe
  21. Lower Merion
  22. Boca Raton Community
  23. Chattahoochee
  24. Iolani
  25. Ed W. Clark
  26. Camas
  27. Charter School of Wilmington
  28. Archimedean Upper
  29. Lincoln Southwest
  30. Auburn
  31. Russell Independent
  32. Madison West
  33. Blue Valley North
  34. Raleigh Charter
  35. Thomas Jefferson Science & Technology
  36. Centennial
  37. Hopkins
  38. Barrington
  39. University
  40. Maple Mountain
  41. Albuquerque Area Home Schoolers
  42. Bismarck
  43. Treasure Valley Home School
  44. Casady
  45. Farragut
  46. Mat-Su Career and Technical
  47. Ames
  48. Helena
  49. St. Martin's Episcopal
  50. Merrimack
  51. Waynflete
  52. St. Mary's Academy
  53. Clinton
  54. Little Rock Central*
  55. Yankton
  56. Cathedral
  57. Thunder Basin
  58. National Cathedral School
  59. Parkersburg
  60. South Burlington


In addition, if you're not happy with where your team (or your state's team) is listed, it might be because I don't have close enough data! Here is the data I am missing:

States Score and Number of Events Run
  • Arizona
  • Arkansas
  • Maryland
  • South Dakota

State Tournament Size, Score, and Number of Events Run
  • Alaska
  • District of Columbia
  • Hawaii
  • Maine
  • Nevada
  • Oklahoma
  • Oregon
  • West Virginia
  • Wyoming
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Unome » May 8th, 2018, 7:27 pm

EastStroudsburg13 wrote: I took more liberties in letting invitationals influence the rankings this year, so we'll see how they turn out!
...
4. Northville
6. Mason

How much was the influence before?
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby pb5754[] » May 8th, 2018, 7:29 pm

Unome wrote:
EastStroudsburg13 wrote: I took more liberties in letting invitationals influence the rankings this year, so we'll see how they turn out!
...
4. Northville
6. Mason

How much was the influence before?

Also...
East's predictions wrote:...
8. Seven Lakes
...

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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby EastStroudsburg13 » May 8th, 2018, 7:34 pm

Let me just say that Mason and Seven Lakes would have been a few places lower if I had not incorporated invitationals so strongly...

Both teams fall victim to the uncertainty introduced by not having qualified for nationals last year, especially with the amount of weight put on past performances. I tried to experiment with making past performances not count for as much, but the overall performance was not as good.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Alex-RCHS » May 8th, 2018, 7:35 pm

pb5754[] wrote:
Unome wrote:
EastStroudsburg13 wrote: I took more liberties in letting invitationals influence the rankings this year, so we'll see how they turn out!
...
4. Northville
6. Mason

How much was the influence before?

Also...
East's predictions wrote:...
8. Seven Lakes
...

Also, Mira Loma at 5th and Enloe at 20th both seem strange to me.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby EastStroudsburg13 » May 8th, 2018, 7:42 pm

Alex-RCHS wrote:Also, Mira Loma at 5th and Enloe at 20th both seem strange to me.

For whatever reason, the algorithm always likes Mira Loma. It successfully predicted ML's win in 2016, but it was too high on ML last year. They're another team where underperforming the algorithm projection would not surprise me.

As for Enloe, the teams from 15-22 were all rated incredibly closely, especially 15-20. Enloe ended up getting the unlucky end of the sequence. There's also a cap of diminishing returns at a certain percentage of state points, as it actually improves the overall algorithm performance; this is something I'll watch for this year to see if it holds with the additional influence I'm giving invitationals.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Unome » May 9th, 2018, 4:37 am

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:Let me just say that Mason and Seven Lakes would have been a few places lower if I had not incorporated invitationals so strongly...

Both teams fall victim to the uncertainty introduced by not having qualified for nationals last year, especially with the amount of weight put on past performances. I tried to experiment with making past performances not count for as much, but the overall performance was not as good.

Personally, I don't think Seven Lakes in 8th is unreasonable - if Northville and Mira Loma have good days, I could see both ahead of them pretty easily.

Another random thought - I've wondered in the past whether the amount of time between State and Nationals has an effect on performance for newly-qualified teams. Have you looked into this factor?
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby EastStroudsburg13 » May 9th, 2018, 5:45 am

No, although that's certainly worth exploring. I already have a factor in to account for Montana's schedule. I'll add it to the list of things to explore with the data after this year.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby TheChiScientist » May 10th, 2018, 11:28 am

This year I could see New Trier getting a new record high and end up in top 5...
Stevenson, on the other hand, could end up lower this year...
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Alex-RCHS » May 13th, 2018, 6:43 pm

Why do I keep seeing Northville ranked so low? They got 4th at nats last year, and got a lower point score at states this year than last. Did they bomb an invite that I didn't notice?
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby windu34 » May 13th, 2018, 7:01 pm

Alex-RCHS wrote:Why do I keep seeing Northville ranked so low? They got 4th at nats last year, and got a lower point score at states this year than last. Did they bomb an invite that I didn't notice?

I believe MIT is weighing them down on my calculations. East and I have them at 4th and 6th respectively and I think that's pretty reasonable. Another explanation is that other teams improved their states scores more than Northville at their respective tournaments thereby increasing the overall competitiveness
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby Unome » May 13th, 2018, 7:16 pm

windu34 wrote:
Alex-RCHS wrote:Why do I keep seeing Northville ranked so low? They got 4th at nats last year, and got a lower point score at states this year than last. Did they bomb an invite that I didn't notice?

I believe MIT is weighing them down on my calculations. East and I have them at 4th and 6th respectively and I think that's pretty reasonable. Another explanation is that other teams improved their states scores more than Northville at their respective tournaments thereby increasing the overall competitiveness

Northville has (relatively) bombed basically every invite they've attended.
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Re: Unofficial Rankings C

Postby DarthBuilder » May 13th, 2018, 7:49 pm

windu34 wrote:
Alex-RCHS wrote:Why do I keep seeing Northville ranked so low? They got 4th at nats last year, and got a lower point score at states this year than last. Did they bomb an invite that I didn't notice?

I believe MIT is weighing them down on my calculations. East and I have them at 4th and 6th respectively and I think that's pretty reasonable. Another explanation is that other teams improved their states scores more than Northville at their respective tournaments thereby increasing the overall competitiveness


Why is New Trier and Stevenson pretty low on your list?
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