Pennsylvania 2019

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EastStroudsburg13
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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Postby EastStroudsburg13 » January 29th, 2019, 4:29 pm

builderguy135 wrote:Is there any accurate way to do this to rank all the nationals teams?

In theory, yes, but the addition of many tournaments, combined with less overlap, would require a way to adjust for tournament strength, which would introduce more assumptions (into a ranking already pretty reliant on them) and would require a bit more work. But perhaps at some point I can play around with some stuff (or someone else can take it upon themselves).

As a related point, in the above ranking, Bedford would have gotten 199, Bay Academy would have gotten 120, and Community would have gotten 59.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Postby UTF-8 U+6211 U+662F » January 29th, 2019, 4:58 pm

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:4. Strath Haven - 233

Of course

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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Postby Anomaly » January 29th, 2019, 5:05 pm

kate! wrote:
UTF-8 U+6211 U+662F wrote:4. Strath Haven?

4 is a tie between Orefield and Strath Haven.

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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Postby Paypog » January 29th, 2019, 7:50 pm

Anomaly wrote:
kate! wrote:
UTF-8 U+6211 U+662F wrote:4. Strath Haven?

4 is a tie between Orefield and Strath Haven.

dying of laughter yet crying on the inside


me too friend. me too
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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Postby Paypog » February 3rd, 2019, 12:56 pm

So... Solon invitational was yesterday.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Postby sciolyperson1 » February 3rd, 2019, 1:22 pm

Paypog wrote:So... Solon invitational was yesterday.


Springhouse did surprisingly well... IDK how I feel about that. SSA did exceptional as well. I would think that it would be SSA/SHouse going to nats again. Bala Cynwyd is still a contender of course.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Postby Paypog » February 3rd, 2019, 1:25 pm

sciolyperson1 wrote:
Paypog wrote:So... Solon invitational was yesterday.


Springhouse did surprisingly well... IDK how I feel about that. SSA did exceptional as well. I would think that it would be SSA/SHouse going to nats again. Bala Cynwyd is still a contender of course.


Yeah Springhouse did really pick it up at this tournament. They beat a relatively stacked Solon A team, which is quite the accomplishment. SSA also did well considering it was their first invite; However Bala has clearly been working a lot so this year could go to anyone.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Postby sciolyperson1 » February 3rd, 2019, 1:27 pm

Paypog wrote:
sciolyperson1 wrote:
Paypog wrote:So... Solon invitational was yesterday.


Springhouse did surprisingly well... IDK how I feel about that. SSA did exceptional as well. I would think that it would be SSA/SHouse going to nats again. Bala Cynwyd is still a contender of course.


Yeah Springhouse did really pick it up at this tournament. They beat a relatively stacked Solon A team, which is quite the accomplishment. SSA also did well considering it was their first invite; However Bala has clearly been working a lot so this year could go to anyone.


Did Springhouse do better, or did Solon do bad?
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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Postby Paypog » February 3rd, 2019, 1:28 pm

sciolyperson1 wrote:
Paypog wrote:
sciolyperson1 wrote:
Springhouse did surprisingly well... IDK how I feel about that. SSA did exceptional as well. I would think that it would be SSA/SHouse going to nats again. Bala Cynwyd is still a contender of course.


Yeah Springhouse did really pick it up at this tournament. They beat a relatively stacked Solon A team, which is quite the accomplishment. SSA also did well considering it was their first invite; However Bala has clearly been working a lot so this year could go to anyone.


Did Springhouse do better, or did Solon do bad?


To be honest, Solon didn't seem to do as well as they usually do, but Springhouse did still do well.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Postby EastStroudsburg13 » February 3rd, 2019, 1:32 pm

Anyone with Barons scores? They usually don't post their scores online, unfortunately.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Postby zsg11 » February 3rd, 2019, 2:17 pm

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:Anyone with Barons scores? They usually don't post their scores online, unfortunately.


Here is a link: https://documentcloud.adobe.com/link/tr ... 2b3157939c


Great job Cumberland Valley!!
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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Postby EastStroudsburg13 » February 3rd, 2019, 5:24 pm

Stacked scores from Barons:

  1. Cumberland Valley - 70
  2. Lower Merion - 74
  3. Northwestern Lehigh - 171
  4. Manheim Central - 200
  5. West Chester East - 217
  6. Garnet Valley - 222
  7. Hershey - 224
  8. Marriotts Ridge - 254
  9. Elizabethtown Area - 256
  10. Downingtown STEM - 342
  11. Central York - 360
  12. Archmere Academy - 415
  13. Central Bucks South - 439
  14. Bermudian Springs - 451
  15. Dallastown - 501
  16. B Reed Henderson - 530
  17. Palmyra Area - 565

  • Cumberland Valley and Lower Merion dominated. LM had more gold medals, but CV was more consistent with no events under 6th with their stacked score. I would still put LM ahead in my state prediction based on history at the moment, but CV may look stronger than Penncrest and Shady Side at the moment.
  • May just be me, but it definitely seemed like there were a lot of no-shows, even in non-builds (i.e. Disease). The best-placed team whose stacked score had no-shows was Garnet Valley. For this reason, I put them a little bit over WC East in the SEPA bubble race, although they look clear behind North Penn and will be right in the thick of it.
  • As for the Central region, it definitely seems like CV is the clear favorite, and State College is the favorite for second. Hershey and Manheim Central are on track for state spots, and Elizabethtown is in good shape to contend as well. Central York didn't do great here, but had shown better at past invites this year. These 6 teams plus Red Land may be my projected top 7 teams for the region right now.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Postby 19sawickin » February 4th, 2019, 3:27 pm

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:Stacked scores from Barons:

  1. Cumberland Valley - 70
  2. Lower Merion - 74
  3. Northwestern Lehigh - 171

  • Cumberland Valley and Lower Merion dominated. LM had more gold medals, but CV was more consistent with no events under 6th with their stacked score. I would still put LM ahead in my state prediction based on history at the moment, but CV may look stronger than Penncrest and Shady Side at the moment.


This seems like quite a jump for Cumberland Valley given that they were 10th at States last year. What gives? Have they been attending more invites or is this their first one of the season? It's an interesting case study for sure.

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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Postby GoldenKnight1 » February 4th, 2019, 3:50 pm

19sawickin wrote:
EastStroudsburg13 wrote:Stacked scores from Barons:

  1. Cumberland Valley - 70
  2. Lower Merion - 74
  3. Northwestern Lehigh - 171

  • Cumberland Valley and Lower Merion dominated. LM had more gold medals, but CV was more consistent with no events under 6th with their stacked score. I would still put LM ahead in my state prediction based on history at the moment, but CV may look stronger than Penncrest and Shady Side at the moment.


This seems like quite a jump for Cumberland Valley given that they were 10th at States last year. What gives? Have they been attending more invites or is this their first one of the season? It's an interesting case study for sure.


I know they were impressive at BVF.

When Rustin started we went from Year 1 getting close but not qualifying for States. In Year 2 we were 5th in the State and in Year 3 we were about 10 points short of 2nd. I am not sure what has changed for CV this year but I can easily see CV doing similar great things this year.

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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Postby EastStroudsburg13 » February 4th, 2019, 4:19 pm

GoldenKnight1 wrote:
19sawickin wrote:
This seems like quite a jump for Cumberland Valley given that they were 10th at States last year. What gives? Have they been attending more invites or is this their first one of the season? It's an interesting case study for sure.


I know they were impressive at BVF.

When Rustin started we went from Year 1 getting close but not qualifying for States. In Year 2 we were 5th in the State and in Year 3 we were about 10 points short of 2nd. I am not sure what has changed for CV this year but I can easily see CV doing similar great things this year.

Cumberland Valley had quite a big jump last year, going from not making states to 10th (much like ES South did my senior year ;) ). However, unlike us, it seems like they've continued that trajectory upwards. No doubt being fed by Eagle View and Good Hope is helping them, and it seems like all three schools are making a sort of partnered effort. Along with the consideration that they're a fairly large school student body wise, and you have the ingredients for a very good year.
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