Southern California 2021

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Re: Southern California 2021

Post by Umaroth »

Strong showing for Southern California at UT invite! We had Jeffrey Trail taking 2nd, Sierra Vista taking 7th, and Mesa Robles taking 11th in Div B and Troy with 1st in Div C.
Some takeaways:
JT is dominating right now, with a 112 point lead over Sierra Vista. We'll see how this plays out in the coming months, as it's only October. JT has a tendency to stagnate in the months leading up to states, and 2019 Kraemer overcame a 100+ point lead in December to beat JT at states. Too soon to tell, but JT is posing to be absolutely monstrous right now. Speaking of Kraemer, their 19th place this weekend definitely solidifies their fall from glory. Another team to look for is Mesa Robles, who has been steadily improving in the past couple of years. I can definitely see them contending for a strong top 4 finish at states, perhaps edging out Oak Valley for the 3rd place spot. Oak Valley didn't attend UT, but had a strong 12th/14th split team showing at BEARSO, potentially marking them as a contender. Looking like a fun year for Div B!
Div C seems normal, Temple City had a pretty decent showing of 16th place.
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Re: Southern California 2021

Post by freed2003 »

Do you know where I can find the results?

Edit: nvm found it
Last edited by freed2003 on October 29th, 2020, 10:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Southern California 2021

Post by Godspeed »

freed2003 wrote: October 29th, 2020, 10:54 pm Do you know where I can find the results?

Edit: nvm found it
What results were you looking for?
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Re: Southern California 2021

Post by Godspeed »

Umaroth wrote: October 29th, 2020, 10:28 pm Strong showing for Southern California at UT invite! We had Jeffrey Trail taking 2nd, Sierra Vista taking 7th, and Mesa Robles taking 11th in Div B and Troy with 1st in Div C.
Some takeaways:
JT is dominating right now, with a 112 point lead over Sierra Vista. We'll see how this plays out in the coming months, as it's only October. JT has a tendency to stagnate in the months leading up to states, and 2019 Kraemer overcame a 100+ point lead in December to beat JT at states. Too soon to tell, but JT is posing to be absolutely monstrous right now. Speaking of Kraemer, their 19th place this weekend definitely solidifies their fall from glory. Another team to look for is Mesa Robles, who has been steadily improving in the past couple of years. I can definitely see them contending for a strong top 4 finish at states, perhaps edging out Oak Valley for the 3rd place spot. Oak Valley didn't attend UT, but had a strong 12th/14th split team showing at BEARSO, potentially marking them as a contender. Looking like a fun year for Div B!
Div C seems normal, Temple City had a pretty decent showing of 16th place.
Jeffrey Trail definitely seems very strong right now, considering they have gotten second only to Kennedy. They got 35 points at UT (keep in mind only 20 events were run and the bottom 3 events were cut from scores.) They are looking quite scary this year.
Sierra Vista seems to be off to a very good start with the Evola Program now being present there. They are consistently placing very high.
Kraemer getting 19th was quite unexpected and sad to see, but I still think that they have a chance of doing decent, probably top 10 at state, maybe around where Black Mountain typically lands. Mesa Robles looks pretty strong, getting 19th overall at BEARSO, and got 11th at UT. Oak Valley looks pretty good right now, with 10th/12th at BEARSO. Chaparral getting 14th at BEARSO was something that definitely was surprising, along with Dana who got 15th at BEAR. Carmel Valley getting 50th overall at BEAR wasn't expected but I've since heard that they didn't have much preparation at all and had only started their season a few days prior. It's looking like an exciting season. Currently, it's looking like nobody other than Kennedy themselves can stop Jeffrey Trails! We'll just have to see, but this is gonna be one interesting of a season!
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Re: Southern California 2021

Post by Umaroth »

I've posted some more info for Sierra Vista Invite the past week and info for the new Troy Division B Invitational on March 13th! See all of that in the Invitational forums. Once we get results in for some of the more recent invitationals, I will post some more analysis for Div B, but its definitely going to be an exciting year to watch. It's still December, a bit over four months until states, so anything can happen.
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Re: Southern California 2021

Post by Umaroth »

This has been a busy couple month for SoCal teams! Let's take a deeper look at all these competition results and break down these teams:

Our two dominant powerhouses this year are currently Jeffrey Trail as always, and relative newcomer Sierra Vista (coached by myself and Shaun Evola, the former Kraemer and Jeffrey Trail coach). Rounding out the top teams I can see Oak Valley and Chaparral fighting it out for 3rd and showdown between Carmel Valley and Dana for the 5th place. We don't have much data for those teams yet, but hopefully we'll see them face off in the coming months. The most telling SoCal B tournaments will be Sierra Vista Invitational on Feb 6th and Troy Invitational on March 13th. As I expected, Kraemer never started making any signs of recovery and have consistently placed about 15th at each tournament they've gone to. There is still chance for them to work their way up, but based on what I've seen from the team, the chances are slim. In a similar manner, Mesa Robles hasn't been pulling in strong performances like they had been last year, including losing to Kraemer by one place at Dodgen. From the limited data Oak Valley seems to be about the same level as they usually are, and JT and SV are much further ahead. This gap could close in the coming months, but I foresee JT and SV's growth going more rapidly than OV.

Here is the breakdown for tournament results this year (including the ones mentioned in my last post since it was brief; I will be counting Codebusters as a scored event):
BEARSO Mini 10/10 :
All full stacked except maybe Solon: Kennedy 92 vs. JT 152 vs. Churchill 211 vs. Miller 312 vs. Solon 318 vs. SV 373 vs. Fulton 426. First tournament of the season so we can't say much about it. Only thing I will note is JT Orange getting a 40th with a 1118 vs. SV B getting 20th with a 788 and SV C getting 28th with an 888, perhaps suggesting a lack of depth that could come to hurt them next season. Comparing the A teams, JT pulled a 221 point lead over SV, not surprising given JT's hunger after last year.

UT Mini 10/24 :
All full stacked except perhaps Solon: Kennedy 29 vs. JT 35 vs. Beckendorff 54 vs. Churchill 89 vs. Solon 126 vs. Fulton 147 vs. SV 147. Main thing to note here is that they ran a few trials and dropped lowest scores, and they also ran no builds or WICI or EXDA. When we remove drops and trials, we get Kennedy 34 vs. JT 59 vs. Beckendorff 120 vs. Churchill 162 vs. Solon 170 vs. SV 174 vs. Fulton 219 (no-show for code, probably isn't fair to add but keeping it consistent; they stay the same without Code). For our main comparison, we have JT at a 112 point lead over SV in the regular scores and a 115 point lead after adjustments. Not a bad performance for SV after considering huge gap that we saw at BEARSO. For other noteworthy SoCal teams, Mesa Robles placed 11th with a 225, Huntington placed 12th with a 242, and Kraemer placed 19th with a 335 and notably losing to SV's B team who got 13th with a 271 right behind Huntington. Huntington wasn't a name I had noticed when I looked through the scores earlier, definitely an interesting one. JT's B team placed 24th with a 365, continuing the lack of depth that we saw at BEARSO.

Boyceville Mini 11/7 :
Both full stacked: JT 60, 2nd place, lost to Kennedy 54. If you take out the trial events and drops, you get Kennedy 71 to JT 59. Tactical victory for Kennedy, strategic victory for JT. Very strong showing right here.

Dodgen Mini 11/14 :
Both full stacked: SV 97, 2nd place, lost to Fulton 92. With builds being trialed unlike BEARSO, Fulton took the advantage here. Adding in the builds that were trialed, you get SV 127 to Fulton 186, but that includes Fulton's no-show for Mission. Even if the Mission no-show is excluded for Fulton and we keep SV's 20th in Mission, Fulton loses to SV by 11. I'd say strategic victory for SV. We also had Kraemer place 15th with a 297 and Mesa Robles place 16th with a 316. Not a particularly impressive performance from either, which made me reconsider my earlier prediction of Mesa potentially battling it out with Oak Valley for the 3rd place spot at states. I think this was an important tournament for SV as a morale booster and also a show of strength (plus the joy of getting to listen to the awards announcer's very smooth voice, that was very satisfactory).

Belleville Mini 12/5 :
All full stacked Kennedy 73 vs. JT 100 vs. Beckendorff 105 vs. SV 114. This tournament was insanely close from those 2-4 spots. With event drops, Kennedy ran away with a 27 point lead against JT, and JT pulled a 14 point lead against SV, the closest margin so far, and the only one that we will actually see a true matchup between the two until Sierra Vista Invite in February. When we remove drops and WI trials, it becomes Kennedy 69 vs JT 89 vs SV 143 vs Beckendorff 152. This 54 point margin is a significant improvement from the 115 from UT. This is where things get really exciting between the two. Other notable scores include Kraemer who got 15th with a 391 and lost to SV B who got 14th with a 367.

Rickards Mini 12/6 :
Nothing super important besides that Miller kinda got pranked by thinking that Kennedy and JT would be sending their A teams there and they ended up sweeping the tournament. I found it kind of amusing.

Northview Mini 12/5-12/12 :
Assuming both full stacked: Solon 74 vs. SV 102. Builds and WICI were trialed and Solon only did WICI out of those, so I won't make any modifications. Last time these two teams met, Solon won by a similar margin of 21 vs. a 28 point margin this time. Based on the two teams' bombs, it could go either way depending on who has a better day. Of notable mention is Chaparral, who got a 4th place with a score of 156 over SV B who got 7th with a score of 183 and Mesa Robles who got 8th with a score of 216. This added to my decreasing confidence in Mesa and Chaparral catching my eye.

This weekend is where things get interesting because Sierra Vista competed in three different tournaments:

Lake Braddock Mini 12/12 :
Full stacked SV 43 vs. unstacked Longfellow 94 vs. full stacked (?) Cooper 135 vs. full stacked Dana 146. Superscored with drops we have SV 43 vs. Longfellow 67, and without we have SV 74 vs. Longfellow 87. Pretty strong performance from SV there, nobody saw SV coming. Another big takeaway is Dana's pretty good performance. With Chaparral's 4th at Northview and Dana's 4th at Lake Braddock, I'd say they're both contenders for top places at states, more so Chaparral just from the higher average strength of Ohio teams than Virginia. SV pulling a 43 is very impressive even with drops, definitely shows a lot of potential.

Camas Mini 12/12 :
Full stacked JT 47 vs. full stacked Kennedy 50 vs. full stacked (?) Solon 71 vs. full stacked Churchill 107 vs. full stacked Redmond 172 vs. semi-stacked SV 206. JT was on full display here, edging out Kennedy by 3 points while both teams medalled in everything. SV didn't have a bad day given that the team was missing 6 of its strongest members and had 7 events going in solo. This was really a Kennedy and JT showdown with Solon and Churchill trying to peek in and everyone else watching from the sidelines. No other important full SoCal teams here, it appears that Carmel Valley sent a single team that only did 13 events and got 1st in WICI.

Pearl City Mini 12/12 :
Last tournament in this post. Here we had full stacked Fulton 37 vs. Kennedy B 81 vs. full stacked (?) Dodgen 104 vs. unstacked Highlands 113 vs. SV B 118 vs. unstacked Highlands 128 vs. full stacked Mesa 136. It appears that Fulton got the Miller treatment here, thinking they would face off against a full strength Kennedy and Jeffrey Trail combo when in reality Kennedy sent teams 2 and 3 and JT sent team 3. Highlands superscores to 70. Kennedy B put up a strong performance and so did SV B.

Takeaways :
1) JT is still the favorite to take SoCal, but SV is steadily creeping up behind. If JT has a bad States day, SV will be sure to capitalize on it.
2) JT is likely neck and neck with Kennedy and we could see a tight race between them in the future.
3) The three teams that don't make it out of NorCal and SoCal are going to be the best teams not at nats.
4) We still have a lot to see from Oak Valley, Carmel Valley, and Pacific Trails.
5) If SV doesn't overtake JT this year, they almost certainly will next year. JT does not currently have the depth to sustain another year.

Future :
1) SV has some glaring holes that once fixed will essentially initiate an arms race with JT. Consistency is key, and a win would be with a super close margin.
2) SV's next invitational is Rustin, where they will be facing Kennedy, Churchill, Miller, Fulton, and a likely unstacked Longfellow, but notably no JT there.
3) The next time that SV and JT will be going against each other full swing will be Sierra Vista Invitational on February 6th and I believe it will continue every week until states. If SV gets its holes fixed, this could start off that arms race.
4) Currently it is looking as if Troy Invitational on March 13th will be the closest representation of SoCal States.
5) We are in for an exciting four and a half months heading into states.
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Re: Southern California 2021

Post by Godspeed »

Umaroth wrote: December 20th, 2020, 12:28 am This has been a busy couple month for SoCal teams! Let's take a deeper look at all these competition results and break down these teams:

Our two dominant powerhouses this year are currently Jeffrey Trail as always, and relative newcomer Sierra Vista (coached by myself and Shaun Evola, the former Kraemer and Jeffrey Trail coach). Rounding out the top teams I can see Oak Valley and Chaparral fighting it out for 3rd and showdown between Carmel Valley and Dana for the 5th place. We don't have much data for those teams yet, but hopefully we'll see them face off in the coming months. The most telling SoCal B tournaments will be Sierra Vista Invitational on Feb 6th and Troy Invitational on March 13th. As I expected, Kraemer never started making any signs of recovery and have consistently placed about 15th at each tournament they've gone to. There is still chance for them to work their way up, but based on what I've seen from the team, the chances are slim. In a similar manner, Mesa Robles hasn't been pulling in strong performances like they had been last year, including losing to Kraemer by one place at Dodgen. From the limited data Oak Valley seems to be about the same level as they usually are, and JT and SV are much further ahead. This gap could close in the coming months, but I foresee JT and SV's growth going more rapidly than OV.

Here is the breakdown for tournament results this year (including the ones mentioned in my last post since it was brief; I will be counting Codebusters as a scored event):
BEARSO Mini 10/10 :
All full stacked except maybe Solon: Kennedy 92 vs. JT 152 vs. Churchill 211 vs. Miller 312 vs. Solon 318 vs. SV 373 vs. Fulton 426. First tournament of the season so we can't say much about it. Only thing I will note is JT Orange getting a 40th with a 1118 vs. SV B getting 20th with a 788 and SV C getting 28th with an 888, perhaps suggesting a lack of depth that could come to hurt them next season. Comparing the A teams, JT pulled a 221 point lead over SV, not surprising given JT's hunger after last year.

UT Mini 10/24 :
All full stacked except perhaps Solon: Kennedy 29 vs. JT 35 vs. Beckendorff 54 vs. Churchill 89 vs. Solon 126 vs. Fulton 147 vs. SV 147. Main thing to note here is that they ran a few trials and dropped lowest scores, and they also ran no builds or WICI or EXDA. When we remove drops and trials, we get Kennedy 34 vs. JT 59 vs. Beckendorff 120 vs. Churchill 162 vs. Solon 170 vs. SV 174 vs. Fulton 219 (no-show for code, probably isn't fair to add but keeping it consistent; they stay the same without Code). For our main comparison, we have JT at a 112 point lead over SV in the regular scores and a 115 point lead after adjustments. Not a bad performance for SV after considering huge gap that we saw at BEARSO. For other noteworthy SoCal teams, Mesa Robles placed 11th with a 225, Huntington placed 12th with a 242, and Kraemer placed 19th with a 335 and notably losing to SV's B team who got 13th with a 271 right behind Huntington. Huntington wasn't a name I had noticed when I looked through the scores earlier, definitely an interesting one. JT's B team placed 24th with a 365, continuing the lack of depth that we saw at BEARSO.

Boyceville Mini 11/7 :
Both full stacked: JT 60, 2nd place, lost to Kennedy 54. If you take out the trial events and drops, you get Kennedy 71 to JT 59. Tactical victory for Kennedy, strategic victory for JT. Very strong showing right here.

Dodgen Mini 11/14 :
Both full stacked: SV 97, 2nd place, lost to Fulton 92. With builds being trialed unlike BEARSO, Fulton took the advantage here. Adding in the builds that were trialed, you get SV 127 to Fulton 186, but that includes Fulton's no-show for Mission. Even if the Mission no-show is excluded for Fulton and we keep SV's 20th in Mission, Fulton loses to SV by 11. I'd say strategic victory for SV. We also had Kraemer place 15th with a 297 and Mesa Robles place 16th with a 316. Not a particularly impressive performance from either, which made me reconsider my earlier prediction of Mesa potentially battling it out with Oak Valley for the 3rd place spot at states. I think this was an important tournament for SV as a morale booster and also a show of strength (plus the joy of getting to listen to the awards announcer's very smooth voice, that was very satisfactory).

Belleville Mini 12/5 :
All full stacked Kennedy 73 vs. JT 100 vs. Beckendorff 105 vs. SV 114. This tournament was insanely close from those 2-4 spots. With event drops, Kennedy ran away with a 27 point lead against JT, and JT pulled a 14 point lead against SV, the closest margin so far, and the only one that we will actually see a true matchup between the two until Sierra Vista Invite in February. When we remove drops and WI trials, it becomes Kennedy 69 vs JT 89 vs SV 143 vs Beckendorff 152. This 54 point margin is a significant improvement from the 115 from UT. This is where things get really exciting between the two. Other notable scores include Kraemer who got 15th with a 391 and lost to SV B who got 14th with a 367.

Rickards Mini 12/6 :
Nothing super important besides that Miller kinda got pranked by thinking that Kennedy and JT would be sending their A teams there and they ended up sweeping the tournament. I found it kind of amusing.

Northview Mini 12/5-12/12 :
Assuming both full stacked: Solon 74 vs. SV 102. Builds and WICI were trialed and Solon only did WICI out of those, so I won't make any modifications. Last time these two teams met, Solon won by a similar margin of 21 vs. a 28 point margin this time. Based on the two teams' bombs, it could go either way depending on who has a better day. Of notable mention is Chaparral, who got a 4th place with a score of 156 over SV B who got 7th with a score of 183 and Mesa Robles who got 8th with a score of 216. This added to my decreasing confidence in Mesa and Chaparral catching my eye.

This weekend is where things get interesting because Sierra Vista competed in three different tournaments:

Lake Braddock Mini 12/12 :
Full stacked SV 43 vs. unstacked Longfellow 94 vs. full stacked (?) Cooper 135 vs. full stacked Dana 146. Superscored with drops we have SV 43 vs. Longfellow 67, and without we have SV 74 vs. Longfellow 87. Pretty strong performance from SV there, nobody saw SV coming. Another big takeaway is Dana's pretty good performance. With Chaparral's 4th at Northview and Dana's 4th at Lake Braddock, I'd say they're both contenders for top places at states, more so Chaparral just from the higher average strength of Ohio teams than Virginia. SV pulling a 43 is very impressive even with drops, definitely shows a lot of potential.

Camas Mini 12/12 :
Full stacked JT 47 vs. full stacked Kennedy 50 vs. full stacked (?) Solon 71 vs. full stacked Churchill 107 vs. full stacked Redmond 172 vs. semi-stacked SV 206. JT was on full display here, edging out Kennedy by 3 points while both teams medalled in everything. SV didn't have a bad day given that the team was missing 6 of its strongest members and had 7 events going in solo. This was really a Kennedy and JT showdown with Solon and Churchill trying to peek in and everyone else watching from the sidelines. No other important full SoCal teams here, it appears that Carmel Valley sent a single team that only did 13 events and got 1st in WICI.

Pearl City Mini 12/12 :
Last tournament in this post. Here we had full stacked Fulton 37 vs. Kennedy B 81 vs. full stacked (?) Dodgen 104 vs. unstacked Highlands 113 vs. SV B 118 vs. unstacked Highlands 128 vs. full stacked Mesa 136. It appears that Fulton got the Miller treatment here, thinking they would face off against a full strength Kennedy and Jeffrey Trail combo when in reality Kennedy sent teams 2 and 3 and JT sent team 3. Highlands superscores to 70. Kennedy B put up a strong performance and so did SV B.

Takeaways :
1) JT is still the favorite to take SoCal, but SV is steadily creeping up behind. If JT has a bad States day, SV will be sure to capitalize on it.
2) JT is likely neck and neck with Kennedy and we could see a tight race between them in the future.
3) The three teams that don't make it out of NorCal and SoCal are going to be the best teams not at nats.
4) We still have a lot to see from Oak Valley, Carmel Valley, and Pacific Trails.
5) If SV doesn't overtake JT this year, they almost certainly will next year. JT does not currently have the depth to sustain another year.

Future :
1) SV has some glaring holes that once fixed will essentially initiate an arms race with JT. Consistency is key, and a win would be with a super close margin.
2) SV's next invitational is Rustin, where they will be facing Kennedy, Churchill, Miller, Fulton, and a likely unstacked Longfellow, but notably no JT there.
3) The next time that SV and JT will be going against each other full swing will be Sierra Vista Invitational on February 6th and I believe it will continue every week until states. If SV gets its holes fixed, this could start off that arms race.
4) Currently it is looking as if Troy Invitational on March 13th will be the closest representation of SoCal States.
5) We are in for an exciting four and a half months heading into states.
My current predictions are:
1. Jeffrey Trail
2. Sierra Vista
3. Oak Valley
4. Chaparral
5. Dana
6. Marshall
7. Pacific Trails
8. Mesa Verde (maybe? they haven't gone to any competitions this year or last year so there's nothing to go off of. Their next competition is
regionals and then after that, Troy invitational)
9. Carmel Valley
10. Mesa Robles
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Re: Southern California 2021

Post by sAkEtH »

My current predictions Div C:

1. Lake Braddock
2. CCA
3. University
4. North Hollywood
5. Wilson
6. Westview
7. Del Norte
8. Northwood
9. Arcadia
10. Torrey Pines
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Re: Southern California 2021

Post by Godspeed »

sAkEtH wrote: January 5th, 2021, 6:37 pm My current predictions Div C:

1. Lake Braddock
2. CCA
3. University
4. North Hollywood
5. Wilson
6. Westview
7. Del Norte
8. Northwood
9. Arcadia
10. Torrey Pines
Highly agree with these predictions, looks like the school of Lake Braddock is moving to SoCal. This is not very good, they will certainly destroy the competition.

(For legal reasons, this post was a joke)
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Re: Southern California 2021

Post by DragonTownEpic »

Does anybody know how sending multiple teams to state will work? Will each team have to qualify or will just one team from a school have to qualify to send multiple teams?
I CAN DAB AT COMPETITIONS AGAIN :x :x :x
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