Unofficial Rankings C

[Unome]

My 2019 full predictions: (Click to Show Hidden Text)

1. Troy High School (CA)
2. Solon High School (OH)
3. Mason High School (OH)
4. Seven Lakes High School (TX)
5. Acton-Boxborough Regional High School (MA)
6. Columbia High School (NY)
7. Harriton High School (PA)
8. Mounds View High School (MN)
9. Northville High School (MI)
10. West Windsor-Plainsboro  High School South (NJ)
11. Mira Loma High School (CA)
12. Adlai E. Stevenson High School (IL)
13. Boca Raton Community High School (FL)
14. William G. Enloe High School (NC)
15. Bayard Rustin High School (NC)
16. Ann Arbor Pioneer High School (MI)
17. New Trier High School (IL)
18. Ward Melville High School (NY)
19. Brookwood High School (GA)
20. Madison West High School (WI)
21. North Carolina School of Science and Mathematics (NC)
22. Bothell High School (WA)
23. Ed W. Clark High School (NV)
24. Thomas Jefferson High School for Science & Tech (VA)
25. Pembroke Hill High School (MO)
26. Chattahoochee High School (GA)
27. Carmel High School (IN)
28. Fossil Ridge High School (CO)
29. Pearl City High School (HI)
30. Charter School of Wilmington (DE)
31. Blue Valley North High School (KS)
32. Auburn High School (AL)
33. DuPont Manual High School (KY)
34. Albuquerque Area Homeschoolers (NM)
35. Centennial High School (MD)
36. Archimedean Upper Conservatory (FL)
[b]37. Treasure Valley Homeschool (ID)[/b]
38. Lincoln Southwest High School (NE)
39. Barrington High School (RI)
40. White Station High School (TN)
41. Merrimack High School (NH)
42. Maple Mountain High School (UT)
43. Staples High School (CT)
44. Ames High School (IA)
45. Baton Rouge Magnet High School (LA)
46. University High School (AZ)
47. Yankton High School (SD)
48. Westview High School (OR)
49. Legacy High School (ND)
50. Mat-Su Career and Technical High School (AK)
51. National Cathedral School (DC)
52. Casady School (OK)
53. Academic Magnet High School (SC)
54. Cathedral High School (MS)
55. Hamilton High School (MT)
56. Waynflete School (ME)
57. Little Rock Central High School (AR)
58. Kelly Walsh High School (WY)
59. South Burlington High School (VT)
60. Cabell Midland High School (WV)

These predictions are not meant to offend anyone, they only represent my personal opinions.
Feel free to give me feedback!

How come NCSSM is so high? IIRC the only reason they were so close to Enloe at their state comp was Enloe’s disqualification in Boomi, but I might be wrong. Did they go to any invies besides Duke?

NCSSM also ate a DQ in WIDI. I expect a finish around that range as well (actually I could see them going higher, but I would rather not bet on them).

[Selundar]

My 2019 full predictions: (Click to Show Hidden Text)

1. Troy High School (CA)
2. Solon High School (OH)
3. Mason High School (OH)
4. Seven Lakes High School (TX)
5. Acton-Boxborough Regional High School (MA)
6. Columbia High School (NY)
7. Harriton High School (PA)
8. Mounds View High School (MN)
9. Northville High School (MI)
10. West Windsor-Plainsboro  High School South (NJ)
11. Mira Loma High School (CA)
12. Adlai E. Stevenson High School (IL)
13. Boca Raton Community High School (FL)
14. William G. Enloe High School (NC)
15. Bayard Rustin High School (NC)
16. Ann Arbor Pioneer High School (MI)
17. New Trier High School (IL)
18. Ward Melville High School (NY)
19. Brookwood High School (GA)
20. Madison West High School (WI)
21. North Carolina School of Science and Mathematics (NC)
22. Bothell High School (WA)
23. Ed W. Clark High School (NV)
24. Thomas Jefferson High School for Science & Tech (VA)
25. Pembroke Hill High School (MO)
26. Chattahoochee High School (GA)
27. Carmel High School (IN)
28. Fossil Ridge High School (CO)
29. Pearl City High School (HI)
30. Charter School of Wilmington (DE)
31. Blue Valley North High School (KS)
32. Auburn High School (AL)
33. DuPont Manual High School (KY)
34. Albuquerque Area Homeschoolers (NM)
35. Centennial High School (MD)
36. Archimedean Upper Conservatory (FL)
[b]37. Treasure Valley Homeschool (ID)[/b]
38. Lincoln Southwest High School (NE)
39. Barrington High School (RI)
40. White Station High School (TN)
41. Merrimack High School (NH)
42. Maple Mountain High School (UT)
43. Staples High School (CT)
44. Ames High School (IA)
45. Baton Rouge Magnet High School (LA)
46. University High School (AZ)
47. Yankton High School (SD)
48. Westview High School (OR)
49. Legacy High School (ND)
50. Mat-Su Career and Technical High School (AK)
51. National Cathedral School (DC)
52. Casady School (OK)
53. Academic Magnet High School (SC)
54. Cathedral High School (MS)
55. Hamilton High School (MT)
56. Waynflete School (ME)
57. Little Rock Central High School (AR)
58. Kelly Walsh High School (WY)
59. South Burlington High School (VT)
60. Cabell Midland High School (WV)

These predictions are not meant to offend anyone, they only represent my personal opinions.
Feel free to give me feedback!

I have no problem with your ranking of NCSSM, but there are a couple other things I think might be somewhat far off. Why are the Michigan teams so high? I'm not aware of any invitationals where Northville really showed enough strength to be put in the top 10. Also why is New Trier so low? They beat Bayard Rustin and Northville by almost 100 points at Solon (all appear more or less stacked). Rustin also edged out Northville there and given their state placing, I would say Rustin has greatly improved since their invitational season. Finally, I agree with kate! that TJHSST should be moved up. They have shown themselves to be much stronger than previous years and aren't too far behind Ward in my opinion.

[BennyTheJett]

My 2019 full predictions: (Click to Show Hidden Text)

1. Troy High School (CA)
2. Solon High School (OH)
3. Mason High School (OH)
4. Seven Lakes High School (TX)
5. Acton-Boxborough Regional High School (MA)
6. Columbia High School (NY)
7. Harriton High School (PA)
8. Mounds View High School (MN)
9. Northville High School (MI)
10. West Windsor-Plainsboro  High School South (NJ)
11. Mira Loma High School (CA)
12. Adlai E. Stevenson High School (IL)
13. Boca Raton Community High School (FL)
14. William G. Enloe High School (NC)
15. Bayard Rustin High School (NC)
16. Ann Arbor Pioneer High School (MI)
17. New Trier High School (IL)
18. Ward Melville High School (NY)
19. Brookwood High School (GA)
20. Madison West High School (WI)
21. North Carolina School of Science and Mathematics (NC)
22. Bothell High School (WA)
23. Ed W. Clark High School (NV)
24. Thomas Jefferson High School for Science & Tech (VA)
25. Pembroke Hill High School (MO)
26. Chattahoochee High School (GA)
27. Carmel High School (IN)
28. Fossil Ridge High School (CO)
29. Pearl City High School (HI)
30. Charter School of Wilmington (DE)
31. Blue Valley North High School (KS)
32. Auburn High School (AL)
33. DuPont Manual High School (KY)
34. Albuquerque Area Homeschoolers (NM)
35. Centennial High School (MD)
36. Archimedean Upper Conservatory (FL)
[b]37. Treasure Valley Homeschool (ID)[/b]
38. Lincoln Southwest High School (NE)
39. Barrington High School (RI)
40. White Station High School (TN)
41. Merrimack High School (NH)
42. Maple Mountain High School (UT)
43. Staples High School (CT)
44. Ames High School (IA)
45. Baton Rouge Magnet High School (LA)
46. University High School (AZ)
47. Yankton High School (SD)
48. Westview High School (OR)
49. Legacy High School (ND)
50. Mat-Su Career and Technical High School (AK)
51. National Cathedral School (DC)
52. Casady School (OK)
53. Academic Magnet High School (SC)
54. Cathedral High School (MS)
55. Hamilton High School (MT)
56. Waynflete School (ME)
57. Little Rock Central High School (AR)
58. Kelly Walsh High School (WY)
59. South Burlington High School (VT)
60. Cabell Midland High School (WV)

These predictions are not meant to offend anyone, they only represent my personal opinions.
Feel free to give me feedback!

I have no problem with your ranking of NCSSM, but there are a couple other things I think might be somewhat far off. Why are the Michigan teams so high? I'm not aware of any invitationals where Northville really showed enough strength to be put in the top 10. Also why is New Trier so low? They beat Bayard Rustin and Northville by almost 100 points at Solon (all appear more or less stacked). Rustin also edged out Northville there and given their state placing, I would say Rustin has greatly improved since their invitational season. Finally, I agree with kate! that TJHSST should be moved up. They have shown themselves to be much stronger than previous years and aren't too far behind Ward in my opinion.

Keeping the predictions spicy. I like it!

[cytochalasin22]

1. Seven Lakes
2. Troy
3. Solon
4. Acton-Boxborough
5. Mason
6. Harriton
7. Mounds View
8. Columbia
9. Boca Raton
10. New Trier
11. WWPS
12. Mira Loma
13. Enloe
14. Stevenson
15. Northville
16. TJHSST
17. Ward Melville
18. Bayard Rustin
19. Pioneer
20. Clark

I believe

[wec01]

1. Seven Lakes
2. Troy
3. Solon
4. Acton-Boxborough
5. Mason
6. Harriton
7. Mounds View
8. Columbia
9. Boca Raton
10. New Trier
11. WWPS
12. Mira Loma
13. Enloe
14. Stevenson
15. Northville
16. TJHSST
17. Ward Melville
18. Bayard Rustin
19. Pioneer
20. Clark

I believe

Oh man, that's real spicy

[Riptide]

1. Seven Lakes
2. Troy
3. Solon
4. Acton-Boxborough
5. Mason
6. Harriton
7. Mounds View
8. Columbia
9. Boca Raton
10. New Trier
11. WWPS
12. Mira Loma
13. Enloe
14. Stevenson
15. Northville
16. TJHSST
17. Ward Melville
18. Bayard Rustin
19. Pioneer
20. Clark

I believe

I'm going to have question mark that one

[EastStroudsburg13]

As with my B predictions, these rankings are not open for feedback; you can tell me what you disagree with, but the rankings will not be changing unless I personally feel like it. I do not expect you to agree with all of my rankings, nor would I expect or even want you to.

Also as with B, the top 30 have small blurbs next to them, and the bottom 30 is just a list, because I have time I want to spend doing other things. The bottom 30 is mostly based off of my algorithm anyway, so blame that if you have a problem.

1-30 (Click to Show Hidden Text)

[list=1][*][b]Troy[/b] - Troy is inevitable.
[*][b]Solon[/b] - I actually think Solon has a snowball's chance of beating Troy, so I picked them in the prediction contest. Looking forward to a nice point bonus if it happens.
[*][b]Mason[/b] - Their debut surpassed my expectations, not that it was beyond their capability, but they dealt with any first-year jitters flawlessly. I expect more of the same this year.
[*][b]Acton-Boxborough[/b] - Even in a weaker MIT field, their performance is not to be understated. AB is very good.
[*][b]Seven Lakes[/b] - The field in the mid-10s is kinda wide open. Theirs for the taking.
[*][b]Harriton[/b] - Rumors of their demise have been greatly exaggerated. This is definitely a homer pick. I don't care all that much. Go Harriton!
[*][b]Mounds View[/b] - They could place anywhere between 4th and 12th and it wouldn't surprise me. So, like, who really knows.
[*][b]Columbia[/b] - Much has been made of their successful invitational stint and great states score, but everyone above them has great states scores. I definitely like them to get top 10, but I'm not making quite the same leap of faith as some others.
[*][b]Mira Loma[/b] - In a Norcal of increasing competitiveness, Mira Loma hung on, but we might see a new face before long. Their relatively weak state score is offset by the fact that Norcal is [i]very[/i] tough.
[*][b]Adlai E. Stevenson[/b] - Illinois C teams fell to a low last year. I expect a bounceback in some regard.
[*][b]West Windsor-Plainsboro HS South[/b] - I expect some of the NJ people to push back on having them out of the top 10, but last year's 8th was the highest in 7 years for the NJ winner. I expect a bit of regression.
[*][b]New Trier[/b] - See above blurb on Stevenson. Due for some positive regression.
[*][b]Boca Raton Commuity[/b] - This definitely feels low, but the top 12 is pretty strong this year. Making top 10 will take a pretty major effort. Imagine if LASA was also here.
[*][b]Northville[/b] - This also feels low, but same point from Boca Raton applies. Boca has been more successful at invitationals in general this year.
[*][b]William G. Enloe[/b] - For some reason there feels like a bit of a tier gap after Northville. Enloe will probably fall a bit from last year, but they're still very strong.
[*][b]Bayard Rustin[/b] - This also feels kinda homerish, but I can definitely see them beating all the teams below them? So this is what I'm going with.
[*][b]Ward Melville[/b] - Honestly, I expected to rank them lower, but I decided I saw enough from them at invites to keep them here.
[*][b]Ann Arbor Pioneer[/b] - I think they're being underrated because people don't know what to expect. I'd be surprised if they're outside the top 20.
[*][b]Brookwood[/b] - Brookwood's pretty consistently in the range around 20th. They seem stronger than last year.
[*][b]Thomas Jefferson Science & Technology[/b] - The sleeping giant of SO woke up a little bit this year! Time will tell if this year's improvement is a step or a peak.
[*][b]Madison West[/b] - I did want to put them in the top 20, but I like the upside of TJHSST juuust a bit more.
[*][b]Ed W. Clark[/b] - 22nd would be a school high for them, but my guess is their goal is 20th. There's a lot of teams shooting for that. If you have their states score, kindly message that to me, maybe it'll move them up.
[*][b]Pembroke Hill[/b] - Feels like as reasonable a place as any to put them. I admit it's tough to know where Missouri teams will place on a yearly basis, but I've had minor success before.
[*][b]Carmel[/b] - This feels low, but there's a lot of teams in their way to get to the top 20, and their narrow states win with a triple-digit score isn't necessarily confidence-filling when some of the above teams were more dominant.
[*][b]Bothell[/b] - I know this won't be their first cross-country trip this season, but they just haven't shown me the upside of Camas at nats in the past. It's on them to prove me wrong.
[*][b]Fossil Ridge[/b] - Like Preston, they got a little home-state bump last year, which is no longer the case.
[*][b]Chattahoochee[/b] - I've undershot them by a couple places the past couple years. We'll see if that applies again.
[*][b]North Carolina School of Science and Math[/b] - I could see a wide range of outcomes here, depending on how they minimize bombs. I ended up ranking them on the low end just based on North Carolina track record for non-Enloe teams.
[*][b]Archimedean Upper Conservatory[/b] - Despite generally being the weakest of the two-bid states, Florida is on the rise.
[*][b]Charter School of Wilmington[/b] - Even though HB DuPont lost, CSW continues to dominate Delaware. Hard to put them any higher than here.[/list]

31-60 (Click to Show Hidden Text)

31. Centennial
32. Blue Valley North
33. Lincoln Southwest
34. duPont Manual
35. Pearl City
36. Barrington
37. Auburn
38. Staples
39. Ames
40. Albuquerque Area
41. Maple Mountain
42. Casady
43. White Station
44. Hamilton
45. University
46. Treasure Valley
47. Legacy
48. Merrimack
49. Westview
50. Baton Rouge Magnet
51. Mat-Su
52. Waterville
53. National Cathedral
54. Academic Magnet
55. Cathedral
56. Yankton
57. Little Rock Central
58. Cabell Midland
59. Kelly Walsh
60. South Burlington

If you don't like your team's placement and you have the state scores for duPont Manual, Casady, Westview, Mat-Su, National Cathedral, Yankton, Little Rock Central, Cabell Midland, Kelly Walsh, or South Burlington, send them to me and you may move up. Or down, I make no promises

[jimmy-bond]

35th for PCHS. As much as I don't like being in the bottom half, that sounds pretty optimistic for our debut.

[BennyTheJett]

As with my B predictions, these rankings are not open for feedback; you can tell me what you disagree with, but the rankings will not be changing unless I personally feel like it. I do not expect you to agree with all of my rankings, nor would I expect or even want you to.

Also as with B, the top 30 have small blurbs next to them, and the bottom 30 is just a list, because I have time I want to spend doing other things. The bottom 30 is mostly based off of my algorithm anyway, so blame that if you have a problem.

1-30 (Click to Show Hidden Text)

[list=1][*][b]Troy[/b] - Troy is inevitable.
[*][b]Solon[/b] - I actually think Solon has a snowball's chance of beating Troy, so I picked them in the prediction contest. Looking forward to a nice point bonus if it happens.
[*][b]Mason[/b] - Their debut surpassed my expectations, not that it was beyond their capability, but they dealt with any first-year jitters flawlessly. I expect more of the same this year.
[*][b]Acton-Boxborough[/b] - Even in a weaker MIT field, their performance is not to be understated. AB is very good.
[*][b]Seven Lakes[/b] - The field in the mid-10s is kinda wide open. Theirs for the taking.
[*][b]Harriton[/b] - Rumors of their demise have been greatly exaggerated. This is definitely a homer pick. I don't care all that much. Go Harriton!
[*][b]Mounds View[/b] - They could place anywhere between 4th and 12th and it wouldn't surprise me. So, like, who really knows.
[*][b]Columbia[/b] - Much has been made of their successful invitational stint and great states score, but everyone above them has great states scores. I definitely like them to get top 10, but I'm not making quite the same leap of faith as some others.
[*][b]Mira Loma[/b] - In a Norcal of increasing competitiveness, Mira Loma hung on, but we might see a new face before long. Their relatively weak state score is offset by the fact that Norcal is [i]very[/i] tough.
[*][b]Adlai E. Stevenson[/b] - Illinois C teams fell to a low last year. I expect a bounceback in some regard.
[*][b]West Windsor-Plainsboro HS South[/b] - I expect some of the NJ people to push back on having them out of the top 10, but last year's 8th was the highest in 7 years for the NJ winner. I expect a bit of regression.
[*][b]New Trier[/b] - See above blurb on Stevenson. Due for some positive regression.
[*][b]Boca Raton Commuity[/b] - This definitely feels low, but the top 12 is pretty strong this year. Making top 10 will take a pretty major effort. Imagine if LASA was also here.
[*][b]Northville[/b] - This also feels low, but same point from Boca Raton applies. Boca has been more successful at invitationals in general this year.
[*][b]William G. Enloe[/b] - For some reason there feels like a bit of a tier gap after Northville. Enloe will probably fall a bit from last year, but they're still very strong.
[*][b]Bayard Rustin[/b] - This also feels kinda homerish, but I can definitely see them beating all the teams below them? So this is what I'm going with.
[*][b]Ward Melville[/b] - Honestly, I expected to rank them lower, but I decided I saw enough from them at invites to keep them here.
[*][b]Ann Arbor Pioneer[/b] - I think they're being underrated because people don't know what to expect. I'd be surprised if they're outside the top 20.
[*][b]Brookwood[/b] - Brookwood's pretty consistently in the range around 20th. They seem stronger than last year.
[*][b]Thomas Jefferson Science & Technology[/b] - The sleeping giant of SO woke up a little bit this year! Time will tell if this year's improvement is a step or a peak.
[*][b]Madison West[/b] - I did want to put them in the top 20, but I like the upside of TJHSST juuust a bit more.
[*][b]Ed W. Clark[/b] - 22nd would be a school high for them, but my guess is their goal is 20th. There's a lot of teams shooting for that. If you have their states score, kindly message that to me, maybe it'll move them up.
[*][b]Pembroke Hill[/b] - Feels like as reasonable a place as any to put them. I admit it's tough to know where Missouri teams will place on a yearly basis, but I've had minor success before.
[*][b]Carmel[/b] - This feels low, but there's a lot of teams in their way to get to the top 20, and their narrow states win with a triple-digit score isn't necessarily confidence-filling when some of the above teams were more dominant.
[*][b]Bothell[/b] - I know this won't be their first cross-country trip this season, but they just haven't shown me the upside of Camas at nats in the past. It's on them to prove me wrong.
[*][b]Fossil Ridge[/b] - Like Preston, they got a little home-state bump last year, which is no longer the case.
[*][b]Chattahoochee[/b] - I've undershot them by a couple places the past couple years. We'll see if that applies again.
[*][b]North Carolina School of Science and Math[/b] - I could see a wide range of outcomes here, depending on how they minimize bombs. I ended up ranking them on the low end just based on North Carolina track record for non-Enloe teams.
[*][b]Archimedean Upper Conservatory[/b] - Despite generally being the weakest of the two-bid states, Florida is on the rise.
[*][b]Charter School of Wilmington[/b] - Even though HB DuPont lost, CSW continues to dominate Delaware. Hard to put them any higher than here.[/list]

31-60 (Click to Show Hidden Text)

31. Centennial
32. Blue Valley North
33. Lincoln Southwest
34. duPont Manual
35. Pearl City
36. Barrington
37. Auburn
38. Staples
39. Albuquerque Area
40. Ames
41. Maple Mountain
42. Casady
43. White Station
44. Hamilton
45. University
46. Treasure Valley
47. Legacy
48. Merrimack
49. Westview
50. Baton Rouge Magnet
51. Mat-Su
52. Waterville
53. National Cathedral
54. Academic Magnet
55. Cathedral
56. Yankton
57. Little Rock Central
58. Cabell Midland
59. Kelly Walsh
60. South Burlington

If you don't like your team's placement and you have the state scores for duPont Manual, Ames, Casady, Westview, Mat-Su, National Cathedral, Yankton, Little Rock Central, Cabell Midland, Kelly Walsh, or South Burlington, send them to me and you may move up. Or down, I make no promises

What is your algorithm?

[EastStroudsburg13]

Got Ames's score, so 39th and 40th have switched.

What is your algorithm?

It's based on the one I've used for PA predictions; it basically uses a combination of state score, state tournament size, past performances by teams from that state, past nats placements for that team, and invitational performance. It's far from perfect, but I like using it as a rough guide for choosing placements. Its average error per team is usually around 4 places, with some teams being very accurate and others, not so much.