Way Too Early Predictions

[will0416]

Solon is way too low, they haven't stacked for anything yet. I'd prob bump them up around 7L for now. I'd still put 7L over Stevenson and Pio is more likely around the 12-17 range now I think according to what AlfWeg has said. I'm also thinking TJ is likely to finally break into the top 10.

They seemed to have stacked at Boyceville (A was 4th with 137, B was 17th with 386, superscore was 4th with 118). Maybe their full team wasn't there, but if it was, losing to an unstacked Mason team and a Marquette team (albeit only because of WI-only events) is not a good sign. They may not have stacked at BEARSO, but they got 38th, 42nd, and 63rd, as opposed to 7L's 5th, 6th, and 15th and they competed every event. I think 7L and Stevenson are really close. We haven't seen much from Pio or TJ this year, so those rankings would be very subject to change. The last time Harriton looked like the Harriton we're used to was 2019, and that team has to be much different now, so they're unproven despite their school history.

solon doesn't stack invites, and i doubt they were near full strength at bearso. i think we can wait before laying down the verdict

[legendaryalchemist]

Solon is way too low, they haven't stacked for anything yet. I'd prob bump them up around 7L for now. I'd still put 7L over Stevenson and Pio is more likely around the 12-17 range now I think according to what AlfWeg has said. I'm also thinking TJ is likely to finally break into the top 10.

They seemed to have stacked at Boyceville (A was 4th with 137, B was 17th with 386, superscore was 4th with 118). Maybe their full team wasn't there, but if it was, losing to an unstacked Mason team and a Marquette team (albeit only because of WI-only events) is not a good sign. They may not have stacked at BEARSO, but they got 38th, 42nd, and 63rd, as opposed to 7L's 5th, 6th, and 15th and they competed every event. I think 7L and Stevenson are really close. We haven't seen much from Pio or TJ this year, so those rankings would be very subject to change. The last time Harriton looked like the Harriton we're used to was 2019, and that team has to be much different now, so they're unproven despite their school history.

solon doesn't stack invites, and i doubt they were near full strength at bearso. i think we can wait before laying down the verdict

Of course. Hence the "way too early" prediction.

[smayya337]

Solon is way too low, they haven't stacked for anything yet. I'd prob bump them up around 7L for now. I'd still put 7L over Stevenson and Pio is more likely around the 12-17 range now I think according to what AlfWeg has said. I'm also thinking TJ is likely to finally break into the top 10.

The cynic in me disagrees with you on that last point - it's been two years and our classes of '19 and '20 have graduated, which is certainly disadvantageous for us. (Then again, I say this every year...)

[sciolyperson1]

Solvi will be a good indicator.

[Umaroth]

Solon is way too low, they haven't stacked for anything yet. I'd prob bump them up around 7L for now. I'd still put 7L over Stevenson and Pio is more likely around the 12-17 range now I think according to what AlfWeg has said. I'm also thinking TJ is likely to finally break into the top 10.

They seemed to have stacked at Boyceville (A was 4th with 137, B was 17th with 386, superscore was 4th with 118). Maybe their full team wasn't there, but if it was, losing to an unstacked Mason team and a Marquette team (albeit only because of WI-only events) is not a good sign. They may not have stacked at BEARSO, but they got 38th, 42nd, and 63rd, as opposed to 7L's 5th, 6th, and 15th and they competed every event. I think 7L and Stevenson are really close. We haven't seen much from Pio or TJ this year, so those rankings would be very subject to change. The last time Harriton looked like the Harriton we're used to was 2019, and that team has to be much different now, so they're unproven despite their school history.

I can already confirm that Solon was not stacked at all

[will0416]

Here's my tier list of the top 10ish at the current moment:

The Best

Troy (CA-S) - self explanatory

Pretty darn gud

WWP-N (NJ)
Seven Lakes (TX)
Mason (OH)

Early invite results support that these teams are up there in the rankings

Still pretty darn gud

Stevenson (IL)
Solon (OH)
New Trier (IL)

Pretty close to the "pretty darn gud" category, but lacking as many/as good early invite results
"Pretty darn gud" and "Still pretty darn gud" will likely merge as the season goes on

Spots 8-12 (because I ran out of names)

Acton-Boxborough (MA)
MSJ/Mira Loma/Mountain View (CA-N)
Enloe (NC)
TJ (VA)
Harriton (PA)

I don't really have a specific "sub-order" like I did for the other categories (just kept the names vertical for formatting purposes), these 5 spots could probably go any way.

pls don't kill me

[legendaryalchemist]

Solon is way too low, they haven't stacked for anything yet. I'd prob bump them up around 7L for now. I'd still put 7L over Stevenson and Pio is more likely around the 12-17 range now I think according to what AlfWeg has said. I'm also thinking TJ is likely to finally break into the top 10.

They seemed to have stacked at Boyceville (A was 4th with 137, B was 17th with 386, superscore was 4th with 118). Maybe their full team wasn't there, but if it was, losing to an unstacked Mason team and a Marquette team (albeit only because of WI-only events) is not a good sign. They may not have stacked at BEARSO, but they got 38th, 42nd, and 63rd, as opposed to 7L's 5th, 6th, and 15th and they competed every event. I think 7L and Stevenson are really close. We haven't seen much from Pio or TJ this year, so those rankings would be very subject to change. The last time Harriton looked like the Harriton we're used to was 2019, and that team has to be much different now, so they're unproven despite their school history.

I can already confirm that Solon was not stacked at all

Fair enough. I just kind of assumed they were because their A team was right behind our A team and their B team tied our B team (we were mostly stacked).

[builderguy135]

They seemed to have stacked at Boyceville (A was 4th with 137, B was 17th with 386, superscore was 4th with 118). Maybe their full team wasn't there, but if it was, losing to an unstacked Mason team and a Marquette team (albeit only because of WI-only events) is not a good sign. They may not have stacked at BEARSO, but they got 38th, 42nd, and 63rd, as opposed to 7L's 5th, 6th, and 15th and they competed every event. I think 7L and Stevenson are really close. We haven't seen much from Pio or TJ this year, so those rankings would be very subject to change. The last time Harriton looked like the Harriton we're used to was 2019, and that team has to be much different now, so they're unproven despite their school history.

I can already confirm that Solon was not stacked at all

Fair enough. I just kind of assumed they were because their A team was right behind our A team and their B team tied our B team (we were mostly stacked).

I'd agree with this, to be honest. Looking at the invitationals they've competed in, it doesn't look like they've been doing as amazing as I'd expect for a top tier team in 2020-2021 and arguably even 2019-2020. Their unstack seems to be consistently mediocre at best, often losing to other teams who unstacked/stacked in a similar way - take 2020 MIT, 2020 Centerville, 2020 BEARSO, or 2020 Boyceville Satellite, for instance. Although they still seem to be an A tier team at best, it doesn't seem like they're the same Solon that got 2nd at Nationals in 2019.

The argument that "Solon wasn't stacked" just seems to be applied over and over again for every invitational that they compete in, and it just never seems like they would be on par with their 2018-2019 team, even accounting for the fact that they are often unstacked. This is different from teams such as Harriton, who although do relatively poorly at invitationals as well, bring many freshmen to invitationals and consistently "bounce" back every year before states and nationals, becoming the competitive school that we all know about.

Hopefully Solon will stack in the near future. It would give everyone more insight as to the strength of their team this year.

ima regret saying this ngl

Mason, on the other hand, seems to be a team that is consistently doing very well for a three-team unstack, which is a big disadvantage towards superscoring. I'd really like to see how their stack compares to other S tier schools such as 7L and Troy.

[BennyTheJett]

I can already confirm that Solon was not stacked at all

Fair enough. I just kind of assumed they were because their A team was right behind our A team and their B team tied our B team (we were mostly stacked).

I'd agree with this, to be honest. Looking at the invitationals they've competed in, it doesn't look like they've been doing as amazing as I'd expect for a top tier team in 2020-2021 and arguably even 2019-2020. Their unstack seems to be consistently mediocre at best, often losing to other teams who unstacked/stacked in a similar way - take 2020 MIT, 2020 Centerville, 2020 BEARSO, or 2020 Boyceville Satellite, for instance. Although they still seem to be an A tier team at best, it doesn't seem like they're the same Solon that got 2nd at Nationals in 2019.

The argument that "Solon wasn't stacked" just seems to be applied over and over again for every invitational that they compete in, and it just never seems like they would be on par with their 2018-2019 team, even accounting for the fact that they are often unstacked. This is different from teams such as Harriton, who although do relatively poorly at invitationals as well, bring many freshmen to invitationals and consistently "bounce" back every year before states and nationals, becoming the competitive school that we all know about.

Hopefully Solon will stack in the near future. It would give everyone more insight as to the strength of their team this year.

ima regret saying this ngl

Mason, on the other hand, seems to be a team that is consistently doing very well for a three-team unstack, which is a big disadvantage towards superscoring. I'd really like to see how their stack compares to other S tier schools such as 7L and Troy.

I think Marquette has the potential to be in the top 13-14 at nationals. I think that we likely haven't seen much of Solon's best kids, because it is 2020, and there's no rules about when to put the good kids in. I expect Solon to be up there just like other years. I highly doubt they've fallen so far that they'd go from 2nd (they were second in '19, right?) to barely top 20, especially as a dynasty school. I think it's more likely that we just haven't seen their best kids compete, and when they do they spread them across 3 teams. I think they're just lying in the weeds like an ambush predator. I do agree that Mason is a top tier team, and WWPN has been a very pleasant early season surprise as well. Excited to see how this plays out! Who do you all think outta Michigan in the 2nd spot? Pioneer, Troy, or Grand Haven?

[builderguy135]

Fair enough. I just kind of assumed they were because their A team was right behind our A team and their B team tied our B team (we were mostly stacked).

I'd agree with this, to be honest. Looking at the invitationals they've competed in, it doesn't look like they've been doing as amazing as I'd expect for a top tier team in 2020-2021 and arguably even 2019-2020. Their unstack seems to be consistently mediocre at best, often losing to other teams who unstacked/stacked in a similar way - take 2020 MIT, 2020 Centerville, 2020 BEARSO, or 2020 Boyceville Satellite, for instance. Although they still seem to be an A tier team at best, it doesn't seem like they're the same Solon that got 2nd at Nationals in 2019.

The argument that "Solon wasn't stacked" just seems to be applied over and over again for every invitational that they compete in, and it just never seems like they would be on par with their 2018-2019 team, even accounting for the fact that they are often unstacked. This is different from teams such as Harriton, who although do relatively poorly at invitationals as well, bring many freshmen to invitationals and consistently "bounce" back every year before states and nationals, becoming the competitive school that we all know about.

Hopefully Solon will stack in the near future. It would give everyone more insight as to the strength of their team this year.

ima regret saying this ngl

Mason, on the other hand, seems to be a team that is consistently doing very well for a three-team unstack, which is a big disadvantage towards superscoring. I'd really like to see how their stack compares to other S tier schools such as 7L and Troy.

I think Marquette has the potential to be in the top 13-14 at nationals. I think that we likely haven't seen much of Solon's best kids, because it is 2020, and there's no rules about when to put the good kids in. I expect Solon to be up there just like other years. I highly doubt they've fallen so far that they'd go from 2nd (they were second in '19, right?) to barely top 20, especially as a dynasty school. I think it's more likely that we just haven't seen their best kids compete, and when they do they spread them across 3 teams. I think they're just lying in the weeds like an ambush predator. I do agree that Mason is a top tier team, and WWPN has been a very pleasant early season surprise as well. Excited to see how this plays out! Who do you all think outta Michigan in the 2nd spot? Pioneer, Troy, or Grand Haven?

> I think Marquette has the potential to be in the top 13-14 at nationals.
I think this would be a reach, but definitely possible. It's certainly too early to tell.

> I expect Solon to be up there just like other years. I highly doubt they've fallen so far that they'd go from 2nd (they were second in '19, right?) to barely top 20, especially as a dynasty school.
I disagree. This kind of thing can happen - see Churchill, Community, etc.

> I think it's more likely that we just haven't seen their best kids compete, and when they do they spread them across 3 teams.
Mason spreads across 3 teams and they still do exceptionally well.