Predictions

[MadCow2357]

Anyone have predictions for nationals now that we're halfway through invite season?

My guesses:
1st: 3300
2nd: 3200
Top 6: 2700+
Top 10: 2000+
Top 20: 1600+

[BigBootyBason]

honestly after MIT
I'd think 2500 will be first

[JonB]

honestly after MIT
I'd think 2500 will be first

Hmm... I am leaning towards 2,500+ will be top 5(ish).

[lavarball]

honestly after MIT
I'd think 2500 will be first

Hmm... I am leaning towards 2,500+ will be top 5(ish).

2500?!? How is that winning? It’s gotta be closer to 3k

[JonB]

honestly after MIT
I'd think 2500 will be first

Hmm... I am leaning towards 2,500+ will be top 5(ish).

2500?!? How is that winning? It’s gotta be closer to 3k

I am confused by your post. I agree, 1st place at Nationals could be close to 3k for division C but I was referencing places 1st through 5th all being above 2500. There is a huge risk/reward with the bonus (example- Boca Raton 2020 MIT boomi), so it is never a guarantee to see very high scores.

[BigBootyBason]

Hmm... I am leaning towards 2,500+ will be top 5(ish).

2500?!? How is that winning? It’s gotta be closer to 3k

I am confused by your post. I agree, 1st place at Nationals could be close to 3k for division C but I was referencing places 1st through 5th all being above 2500. There is a huge risk/reward with the bonus (example- Boca Raton 2020 MIT boomi), so it is never a guarantee to see very high scores.

I guess we made the same mistake last year thinking div c winner was like 2.5k or 2.6k. so I'll stick with 2.5.

[Lorant]

1st and 2nd at MIT were both 10g boomilevers holding full weight and scoring around 2k. Last year the nationals winning boomi scored an efficiency of 2230, that is 6.72g assuming full weight was held (which it may not have but the efficiency was equal to a 6.72g boomi holding full load). If we extrapolate that score to this year we must cover a couple assumptions. 1.) This years nats placing boomis will hold full weight 2.) To meet this years construction parameters, that is the 8cm contact width lines, competitors must add AT LEAST 0.5g* of material just to meet the requirements 3.) Some teams will risk taking an incredibly light boomi to nats and will just cross their fingers 4.) The nationals placing score spread will stay similar for a majority of the 6 placing teams excluding those 1-2 teams that got lucky with crossing their fingers (that is around 300pts score range excluding outliers) 5.) Many teams will play it safe.

If these assumptions are all true we are looking at nationals boomi top scores with a couple (1-2) around the 2.9k mark, that is a 6.7g boomi holding full mass and a whole lot of risk because they got a away with barely adding material compared to last year's design and still held full load.** On the other hand, most of the remaining 4-5 top placing spots will score far lower between high 2.6k and high 2.3k scores (those are about 7.5-8.5g boomis) staying true to assumptions about holing full load, adding material/mass, 1-2 high risk teams, last year's score range of about 300pts, and teams playing it safe to ensure a high placement.

Another thing that I think could be noteworthy is that fact that the top placing boomis at MIT from Troy and New Trier weighed 10g and held full weigh, which could mean three things: 1.) They did not bring their best boomi design, 2.) They played it safe and added weight to ensure full load was held 3.) (Less likely) They brought their best boomi and are at a 2k boomi at best with where they stand. I have not yet reached a conclusion about the implications of either of these, but, if they brought a modified design from last year (that is a tower chimney with a widened base), it means that my estimate of adding 1-2g (see *) just to meet requirements and to hold full load is still undercutting the actual value, so the nationals boomi scores may be even lower, though for now i stand by my prediction.

*This is, in my opinion the minimum that a team has to add to their boomi's mass in order to meet the requirements, and this number is likely to be closer to 1-2g for those opting for a tower chimney type design, like the one that won at nats last year, but the added mass may be more around 0.75-1.5g for those opting for the classic double compression beams.

**Although in my opinion this is INCREDIBLY unlikely seeing as last year's tower chimney type design will require lots of extra material and even heavy bass tension pieces to be viable so if anything the outlier score will be around 2.7k, that is around a 7.3g build.

[MadCow2357]

1st and 2nd at MIT were both 10g boomilevers holding full weight and scoring around 2k. Last year the nationals winning boomi scored an efficiency of 2230, that is 6.72g assuming full weight was held (which it may not have but the efficiency was equal to a 6.72g boomi holding full load). If we extrapolate that score to this year we must cover a couple assumptions. 1.) This years nats placing boomis will hold full weight 2.) To meet this years construction parameters, that is the 8cm contact width lines, competitors must add AT LEAST 0.5g* of material just to meet the requirements 3.) Some teams will risk taking an incredibly light boomi to nats and will just cross their fingers 4.) The nationals placing score spread will stay similar for a majority of the 6 placing teams excluding those 1-2 teams that got lucky with crossing their fingers (that is around 300pts score range excluding outliers) 5.) Many teams will play it safe.

If these assumptions are all true we are looking at nationals boomi top scores with a couple (1-2) around the 2.9k mark, that is a 6.7g boomi holding full mass and a whole lot of risk because they got a away with barely adding material compared to last year's design and still held full load.** On the other hand, most of the remaining 4-5 top placing spots will score far lower between high 2.6k and high 2.3k scores (those are about 7.5-8.5g boomis) staying true to assumptions about holing full load, adding material/mass, 1-2 high risk teams, last year's score range of about 300pts, and teams playing it safe to ensure a high placement.

Another thing that I think could be noteworthy is that fact that the top placing boomis at MIT from Troy and New Trier weighed 10g and held full weigh, which could mean three things: 1.) They did not bring their best boomi design, 2.) They played it safe and added weight to ensure full load was held 3.) (Less likely) They brought their best boomi and are at a 2k boomi at best with where they stand. I have not yet reached a conclusion about the implications of either of these, but, if they brought a modified design from last year (that is a tower chimney with a widened base), it means that my estimate of adding 1-2g (see *) just to meet requirements and to hold full load is still undercutting the actual value, so the nationals boomi scores may be even lower, though for now i stand by my prediction.

*This is, in my opinion the minimum that a team has to add to their boomi's mass in order to meet the requirements, and this number is likely to be closer to 1-2g for those opting for a tower chimney type design, like the one that won at nats last year, but the added mass may be more around 0.75-1.5g for those opting for the classic double compression beams.

**Although in my opinion this is INCREDIBLY unlikely seeing as last year's tower chimney type design will require lots of extra material and even heavy bass tension pieces to be viable so if anything the outlier score will be around 2.7k, that is around a 7.3g build.

I agree with most of what you said, but I don't think chimney booms will necessarily do worse. Correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't chimney booms actually be lighter, therefore having the capacity to score higher? If we assumed that the height of the compression member was the same for a chimney boom and tension boom, the tension boom would have solid balsa throughout the two sides while the chimney boom would have two thinner columns plus bracing, glue, and empty space. Of course, solid wood throughout might be significantly stronger, but the weight decrease could also be worth it.

As for score distribution, I definitely concur that 1st and 2nd will be significantly higher than the rest of the medaling booms - building light is such a risk this year especially since the bonus is huge. This is rather similar to the can bonus from EV 2017 and Buggy 2019, missing it kills any hopes of medaling. Also, from what I heard, Solon has a 3.2k boom but hasn't brought it to competitions. I guess we'll find out what a 3k boom looks like at nationals lol