Georgia 2019

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Re: Georgia 2019

Post by Unome » March 15th, 2019, 4:24 pm

Final prediction summary for Div B State (10 submissions):
1. Dodgen (97)
2. FSA (90)
3. Taylor Road (74 - wins second tiebreaker, two 2nd place picks to one)
4. South Forsyth (74)
5. Vickery Creek (49)
6. McCleskey (40)
7. River Trail (34 - wins first tiebreaker, 9 total picks to 7)
8. Five Forks (34)
9. Rising Starr (14)
10. Campbell (11)
Other teams receiving votes: Chamblee (9), A.C. Crews (5), Richmond Hill (4), Blackmon Road (3), J.C. Booth (3), Hightower Trail (3), Oconee County (2), Richards (2), Henderson (1), Malcom Bridge (1)



My personal predictions:
1. Dodgen - Every year people say FSA might beat them, and every year they win (even if narrowly in many cases). As in past years, another win seems the most likely scenario.
2. FSA - They handily held off Taylor Road at regionals, and have performed competitively with South Forsyth in the past. Last year looked close, but only because of a few unlucky last place finishes, so I think FSA can beat the other two.
3. South Forsyth - Taylor Road does look a lot better this year, but South Forsyth has also improved, and regionals results aren't promising. The top four teams could really go in any order, although some would be rather more surprising than others.
4. Taylor Road - Last year they took this spot narrowly, but I expect them to do no worse than this, given their improvement and the fact that they've been competitive with all of the teams above.
5. McCleskey - Vickery Creek has more history, but doesn't look any stronger than last year - in fact, I'd say they look a fair bit weaker. McCleskey held their own against South Forsyth to some extent, so I expect another strong finish at state this year.
6. Five Forks - I'll go a little bolder for this one. Five Forks has been doing quite well at tournaments this year, with high invitational finishes and a decent regionals placement. I think they could manage this.
7. Vickery Creek - I considered putting them in 6th, but a consistent decline and relatively weak regionals performance brings them below Five Forks for me.
8. River Trail - Hasn't been performing at a level that would place them higher in my opinion. This might even be overestimating them given how regionals went, but they've been consistent for a while now so I'll leave them here.
9. Rising Starr - They don't seem particularly weaker than last year, when they finished 11th, so I think this should be doable.
10. Hightower Trail - My least conventional pick, Hightower Trail failed to qualify for state last year after two years in the top ten. Given their strong regionals performance, I'm inclined to think that they've recovered.
Honorable mentions: Blackmon Road, A.C. Crews, Campbell
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Re: Georgia 2019

Post by rfscoach » March 15th, 2019, 7:51 pm

Unome wrote:Final prediction summary for Div B State (10 submissions):
1. Dodgen (97)
2. FSA (90)
3. Taylor Road (74 - wins second tiebreaker, two 2nd place picks to one)
4. South Forsyth (74)
5. Vickery Creek (49)
6. McCleskey (40)
7. River Trail (34 - wins first tiebreaker, 9 total picks to 7)
8. Five Forks (34)
9. Rising Starr (14)
10. Campbell (11)
Other teams receiving votes: Chamblee (9), A.C. Crews (5), Richmond Hill (4), Blackmon Road (3), J.C. Booth (3), Hightower Trail (3), Oconee County (2), Richards (2), Henderson (1), Malcom Bridge (1)



My personal predictions:
1. Dodgen - Every year people say FSA might beat them, and every year they win (even if narrowly in many cases). As in past years, another win seems the most likely scenario.
2. FSA - They handily held off Taylor Road at regionals, and have performed competitively with South Forsyth in the past. Last year looked close, but only because of a few unlucky last place finishes, so I think FSA can beat the other two.
3. South Forsyth - Taylor Road does look a lot better this year, but South Forsyth has also improved, and regionals results aren't promising. The top four teams could really go in any order, although some would be rather more surprising than others.
4. Taylor Road - Last year they took this spot narrowly, but I expect them to do no worse than this, given their improvement and the fact that they've been competitive with all of the teams above.
5. McCleskey - Vickery Creek has more history, but doesn't look any stronger than last year - in fact, I'd say they look a fair bit weaker. McCleskey held their own against South Forsyth to some extent, so I expect another strong finish at state this year.
6. Five Forks - I'll go a little bolder for this one. Five Forks has been doing quite well at tournaments this year, with high invitational finishes and a decent regionals placement. I think they could manage this.
7. Vickery Creek - I considered putting them in 6th, but a consistent decline and relatively weak regionals performance brings them below Five Forks for me.
8. River Trail - Hasn't been performing at a level that would place them higher in my opinion. This might even be overestimating them given how regionals went, but they've been consistent for a while now so I'll leave them here.
9. Rising Starr - They don't seem particularly weaker than last year, when they finished 11th, so I think this should be doable.
10. Hightower Trail - My least conventional pick, Hightower Trail failed to qualify for state last year after two years in the top ten. Given their strong regionals performance, I'm inclined to think that they've recovered.
Honorable mentions: Blackmon Road, A.C. Crews, Campbell

There is another way to look at last year's finish. If FSA had not tanked 2 events, they would have demolished Dodgen. Also, any state where the second place team can come in LAST place in 2 events and STILL go to Nationals says something about the competition....
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Re: Georgia 2019

Post by rfscoach » March 16th, 2019, 6:01 am

Good Luck to all 30 GA Middle School teams at State today. It is going to be an exciting day!
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Re: Georgia 2019

Post by builderguy135 » March 16th, 2019, 6:14 pm

Who won today?
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Re: Georgia 2019

Post by Unome » March 16th, 2019, 6:26 pm

builderguy135 wrote:Who won today?
Was tired, didn't get a chance to post yet.

1. FSA (19 medals)
2. Dodgen (16)
3. Taylor Road (12ish)
4. South Forsyth (11?)
5. Five Forks (5 or 6)
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Re: Georgia 2019

Post by rfscoach » March 16th, 2019, 10:26 pm

Unome wrote:
builderguy135 wrote:Who won today?
Was tired, didn't get a chance to post yet.

1. FSA (19 medals) 73 pts
2. Dodgen (16) 126 pts
3. Taylor Road (12ish) 165 pts
4. South Forsyth (11?) 166 pts
5. Five Forks (5 or 6) 238 pts
Added point totals.
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Re: Georgia 2019

Post by demir » March 17th, 2019, 7:34 am

rfscoach wrote:
Unome wrote:
builderguy135 wrote:Who won today?
Was tired, didn't get a chance to post yet.

1. FSA (19 medals) 73 pts
2. Dodgen (16) 126 pts
3. Taylor Road (12ish) 165 pts
4. South Forsyth (11?) 166 pts
5. Five Forks (5 or 6) 238 pts
Added point totals.
Very solid win for FSA. Congratulations! Also congratulations to Dodgen for making it to Nationals. Georgia Division B is still these two teams and everybody else.

The point difference between the two is quite high though. Was this Dodgen's turn to bomb an event or two?
Last edited by demir on March 17th, 2019, 9:40 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Georgia 2019

Post by rfscoach » March 17th, 2019, 7:55 am

demir wrote:
rfscoach wrote:
Unome wrote: Was tired, didn't get a chance to post yet.

1. FSA (19 medals) 73 pts
2. Dodgen (16) 126 pts
3. Taylor Road (12ish) 165 pts
4. South Forsyth (11?) 166 pts
5. Five Forks (5 or 6) 238 pts
Added point totals.
Very solid win for FSA. Congratulations! Also congratulations to Dodgen for making it to Nationals. Georgia Division B seems to be a still these two teams and everybody else.

The point difference between the two is quite high though. Was this Dodgen's turn to bomb an event or two?
.

Yes. It can't always be our turn. They were last place in Mystery Architecture. No other giant bombs though...just a few events than could have been better.
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Re: Georgia 2019

Post by dxu46 » March 17th, 2019, 10:15 am

demir wrote:
rfscoach wrote:
Unome wrote: Was tired, didn't get a chance to post yet.

1. FSA (19 medals) 73 pts
2. Dodgen (16) 126 pts
3. Taylor Road (12ish) 165 pts
4. South Forsyth (11?) 166 pts
5. Five Forks (5 or 6) 238 pts
Added point totals.
Very solid win for FSA. Congratulations! Also congratulations to Dodgen for making it to Nationals. Georgia Division B is still these two teams and everybody else.

The point difference between the two is quite high though. Was this Dodgen's turn to bomb an event or two?
Oh, I didn't realize it was FSA's first win in the history of its team. Congratulations!

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Re: Georgia 2019

Post by Unome » March 17th, 2019, 3:25 pm

Div C State Prediction Contest Poll

Closes Friday at 7 PM. I'll post the poll results once on Tuesday and again after closing.

Poll rules
  • Entries that include one team twice will still be included it the running, but the second inclusion of the duplicated team will be replaced by the nearest team alphabetically that wasn't picked.
  • Entries that include one team thrice or more will be deleted
  • Entries that deviate wildly from the norm will be deemed as troll entries and deleted. (if yours is this, it should be obvious)
  • If two entries are submitted under one username, I will use the second one and delete the first. Feel free to submit a second entry if you weren't pleased with your first!
  • Note - the team list for Div B state includes 31 teams, with one of them being a team not marked as qualified on the scoresheet. I would assume this means one of these teams declined their bid. Not certain who it is, although last year Richmond Hill and South Effingham declined their bids.
Scoring:
5 points if the school you picked places exactly where you picked them to place, 4 points for one off, 3 points for two off, etc. through 1 point for five off.

Also check out regional results and past state scoresheets to help your predictions.

Results for Div B probably midweek, once B results are finalized.
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