Pennsylvania 2019

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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Post by Anomaly » January 14th, 2019, 7:20 pm

according to people, harriton is "weaker" this year...

..."weaker" still meaning they're gonna dominate PA states, probably

smh why do all these big teams say that they're "weak" yet go to nats anyways (looking at you ssa div b kids)

on another note congrats to shady side at cmu, and cumberland valley for seeming to do p well (to me at least) at conestoga!
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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Post by EastStroudsburg13 » January 14th, 2019, 7:23 pm

Did some analysis on how population compares to schools participating in SO last year, found some interesting stuff. The regions sorted by total SO teams per capita:

1. Northeast: 37.6 teams per 1000000 people (16.1 B division, 21.5 C division)
2. Northwest: 33.4 (14.3 B, 19.1 C)
3A. Southeast minus Philadelphia: 29.6 (12.4 B, 17.2 C)
3. Central: 22.4 (9.0 B, 13.3 C)
4. Central East: 21.8 (6.2 B, 15.6 C)
5. Southeast: 20.4 (9.2 B, 11.2 C)
6. Southwest: 15.8 (7.0 B, 8.8 C)

When analyzing by the difference between expected teams (population multiplied by average PA rate of teams per capita) and actual teams:

1. NEPA: 19.2 (49 actual, 29.8 expected)
2A. SEPA minus Phila: 12.6 (55, 42.4)
2. NWPA: 11.1 (35, 23.9)
3. CPA: -1.1 (52, 53.1)
4. CEPA: -2.0 (42, 44.0)
5. SEPA: -8.3 (69, 77.3)
6. SWPA: -18.9 (43, 61.9)

The best 10 counties by difference between expected teams and actual teams:

1. Luzerne (NEPA): 10.7 (18 actual, 7.3 expected)
2. Berks (CEPA): 7.6 (17, 9.4)
3. Dauphin (CPA): 6.9 (13, 6.1)
4. Pike (NEPA): 5.7 (7, 1.3)
5. Delaware (SEPA): 5.2 (18, 12.8)
6. Clarion (NWPA): 5.1 (6, 0.9)
7. Lawrence (NWPA): 4.9 (7, 2.1)
8. Chester (SEPA): 4.6 (16, 11.4)
9. Erie (NWPA): 3.6 (10, 6.4)
10. Centre (CPA): 3.5 (7, 3.5)

The worst 10 counties by difference:

1. Philadelphia (SEPA/SEU): -20.8 (14, 34.8)
2. Allegheny (SWPA): -12.9 (15, 27.9)
3. Bucks (CEPA): -5.3 (9, 14.3)
4. Butler (NWPA): -4.2 (0, 4.2)
5. Beaver (SWPA): -3.9 (0, 3.9)
6. Lebanon (CPA): -3.0 (0, 3.0)
7. Lancaster (CPA): -2.9 (9, 11.9)
8. Schuylkill (CEPA): -2.4 (1, 3.4)
9. Northumberland (CEPA): -2.2 (0, 2.2)
10. Blair (SWPA): -1.9 (1, 2.9)

I'm not sure how much there is to necessarily clean from this data apart from curiosity, especially since not all factors are equal; it's harder for urban areas to overcome their high population in a study such as this. But here's a couple notes:
  • Northwest sometimes gets some stick for not having the best performances at states, but maybe we should give them more recognition. It's in pretty good shape for having the lowest population of all the regions. Both Philadelphia and Allegheny counties have more people than the entire NWPA region.
  • I may not have made this just to make the Northeast region look good, but let's just say all the rest of you have some catching up to do. ;)
  • It's not all rosy; my home county of Monroe is the third-most populated county with no B division teams in it. Both Stroudsburg Junior High and J.T. Lambert used to have teams and no longer do. I don't see this changing in the near future, but it's still a shame for a county that has had such past success in the division. Monroe is third behind Butler and Beaver for B division.
  • Cambria County is the most populated county with no C division teams, but with B division teams. Like Monroe, it is third behind Butler and Beaver for C division.
  • One thing something like this could help with is helping regions identify areas that could benefit from outreach. Bucks County, Butler/Beaver Counties, Lancaster/Lebanon Counties, and the Schuylkill/Northumberland/Columbia/Montour/Lycoming region seem like potential growth areas to me based on this.
I'll probably re-check this after this year's regionals, in case something changes. Either way, I thought this was interesting, so hopefully it is to some of you as well!

PS: to help with this, I used the map of active teams that I've previously posted on here, with the addition of county lines. Here's the link to the map for anyone interested.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Post by Unome » January 14th, 2019, 7:24 pm

Anomaly wrote:according to people, harriton is "weaker" this year...

..."weaker" still meaning they're gonna dominate PA states, probably

smh why do all these big teams say that they're "weak" yet go to nats anyways (looking at you ssa div b kids)

on another note congrats to shady side at cmu, and cumberland valley for seeming to do p well (to me at least) at conestoga!
The reason people say Harriton is weaker this year is primarily because they finished 11th at MIT (for comparison, Bayard Rustin was 12th). That said, they bombed several events so they're probably still substantially ahead of everyone else. We'll see how future invitationals go.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Post by Anomaly » January 14th, 2019, 7:27 pm

Unome wrote:
Anomaly wrote:according to people, harriton is "weaker" this year...

..."weaker" still meaning they're gonna dominate PA states, probably

smh why do all these big teams say that they're "weak" yet go to nats anyways (looking at you ssa div b kids)

on another note congrats to shady side at cmu, and cumberland valley for seeming to do p well (to me at least) at conestoga!
The reason people say Harriton is weaker this year is primarily because they finished 11th at MIT (for comparison, Bayard Rustin was 12th). That said, they bombed several events so they're probably still substantially ahead of everyone else. We'll see how future invitationals go.
im also talking about how people from their own team are saying that they're weaker this year, lowkey kinda makes me mad cause like their "weaker" is literally what a team like mine could only achieve in their dreams.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Post by UTF-8 U+6211 U+662F » January 14th, 2019, 7:29 pm

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:Battle of Valley Forge results:
  1. Cumberland Valley
  2. Lower Merion
  3. Conestoga
  4. North Pocono
  5. Harriton
  6. NW Lehigh
  7. Strath Haven
  8. North Penn
  9. Shipley
  10. Perkiomen Valley
  11. Central York
Removed non-PA teams and duplicate teams (keeping the team that did better in the list)...

East will probably manually stack them later

Also too lazy to delete the quote tags

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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Post by xandra » January 14th, 2019, 7:56 pm

Unome wrote:
Anomaly wrote:according to people, harriton is "weaker" this year...

..."weaker" still meaning they're gonna dominate PA states, probably

smh why do all these big teams say that they're "weak" yet go to nats anyways (looking at you ssa div b kids)

on another note congrats to shady side at cmu, and cumberland valley for seeming to do p well (to me at least) at conestoga!
The reason people say Harriton is weaker this year is primarily because they finished 11th at MIT (for comparison, Bayard Rustin was 12th). That said, they bombed several events so they're probably still substantially ahead of everyone else. We'll see how future invitationals go.
I've heard that Harriton had a strong senior class of builders last year... Though, by looking at previous years' Nationals placings, it seems that they've never been consistent with build events.

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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Post by lavarball » January 15th, 2019, 4:18 am

Could anybody get specific build scores from mit and cmu?
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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Post by Paypog » January 15th, 2019, 7:09 am

Anomaly wrote:
Unome wrote:
Anomaly wrote:according to people, harriton is "weaker" this year...

..."weaker" still meaning they're gonna dominate PA states, probably

smh why do all these big teams say that they're "weak" yet go to nats anyways (looking at you ssa div b kids)

on another note congrats to shady side at cmu, and cumberland valley for seeming to do p well (to me at least) at conestoga!
The reason people say Harriton is weaker this year is primarily because they finished 11th at MIT (for comparison, Bayard Rustin was 12th). That said, they bombed several events so they're probably still substantially ahead of everyone else. We'll see how future invitationals go.
im also talking about how people from their own team are saying that they're weaker this year, lowkey kinda makes me mad cause like their "weaker" is literally what a team like mine could only achieve in their dreams.
Anomaly I feel like people may say that about their teams because they personally do feel that way. Also, every team has different standards because of the experience they have, so someone calling a team weaker relative to the same team in a previous year, in my opinion, is warranted regardless of how well they perform in the end.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Post by EastStroudsburg13 » January 17th, 2019, 3:24 pm

Here's the stacked BVF results (I've had this, just forgot to post, lol):
  1. WWP South - 121
  2. Lower Merion - 147
  3. Conestoga - 173
  4. Cumberland Valley - 209
  5. Princeton - 213
  6. Great Neck South - 246
  7. North Pocono - 267
  8. Northwestern Lehigh - 363
  9. North Penn - 373
  10. Harriton - 380
  11. Division Avenue - 392
  12. Strath Haven - 416
  13. Perkiomen Valley - 418
  14. Red Land - 436
  15. Shipley - 440
  16. Central York - 445
  17. Manheim Central - 474
  18. West Chester East - 506
  19. Allentown Central Catholic - 520
  20. Haverford - 534
  21. Downingtown STEM - 559
  22. Devon Prep - 593
  23. Cedar Cliff - 632
  24. Conrad School of Science - 637
  25. Tappan Zee - 663
  26. Lehighton - 782
  27. Springfield - 808
My thoughts on this:
  • Cumberland Valley is still an big stretch to make nationals, but they're a pretty decent threat to break the top 5 bloc. We have yet to see Penncrest and Rustin against most of these teams, so SOUP will tell us a lot about the potential state pecking order.
  • North Pocono and Northwestern are usually close, so it's possible that either North Pocono is a bit stronger this year or Northwestern got a bit weaker. I'm inclined to believe some of both, but more the former.
  • The race for the final SEPA states places is going to be hot. North Penn, Perkiomen Valley, and Shipley were expected to be contenders, but Strath Haven was right up there with them. West Chester East, Haverford, and Downingtown STEM are still lurking behind, and we haven't seen Garnet Valley or Upper Dublin yet. SOUP and Princeton will tell us a bit more, but this could be a close battle all the way until regionals.
  • I also would have expected PV to be much higher than they were, so it's possible this year is a rebuilding year for them. Not great timing coupled with a move to SEPA, as they could be in danger of missing states altogether. I still expect them to pull through, but it's no longer a sure thing.
  • The rest of the PA teams filled out about as expected. Red Land, Central York, and Manheim Central seem on course to return to states, and Allentown Central Catholic is a perennial CEPA qualifier. The fact that they are placed around the bubble teams in SEPA show how strong that region really is.
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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Post by Anomaly » January 17th, 2019, 3:36 pm

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:Here's the stacked BVF results (I've had this, just forgot to post, lol):
  1. WWP South - 121
  2. Lower Merion - 147
  3. Conestoga - 173
  4. Cumberland Valley - 209
  5. Princeton - 213
  6. Great Neck South - 246
  7. North Pocono - 267
  8. Northwestern Lehigh - 363
  9. North Penn - 373
  10. Harriton - 380
  11. Division Avenue - 392
  12. Strath Haven - 416
  13. Perkiomen Valley - 418
  14. Red Land - 436
  15. Shipley - 440
  16. Central York - 445
  17. Manheim Central - 474
  18. West Chester East - 506
  19. Allentown Central Catholic - 520
  20. Haverford - 534
  21. Downingtown STEM - 559
  22. Devon Prep - 593
  23. Cedar Cliff - 632
  24. Conrad School of Science - 637
  25. Tappan Zee - 663
  26. Lehighton - 782
  27. Springfield - 808
huh i didn't realize until now that central catholic was at BVF... now wondering if the score if we would be successful in our goal of beating them at regionals :P
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