Way Too Early Predictions

AlbatrossTree
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby AlbatrossTree » January 16th, 2019, 10:11 am

A new post-MIT prediction:

1) Solon
2) Troy
3) Acton-Boxborough
4) Mason
5) 7L
6) Mounds View
7) Mira Loma
8) Harriton
9) Boca Raton
10) WWPN

It may seem a little crazy, but I don't think it's entirely unreasonable.

MIT showed that LASA and Clements have definite weaknesses this year, so I think 7L will make it out of TX again. Additionally, Harriton had an extremely sub-par performance, so I think they'll take a heavy drop.

Meanwhile Acton-Boxborough and Boca Raton had outstanding performances, so I'd expect them to jump.

Mason is supposedly weaker this year, and there are rumors that Troy is too (mainly I just want to see Troy fall). Solon is the only top 4 team from last year that appears to have maintained its strength, so I think they'll take the title.
At the moment these results certainly seem plausible. It will be interesting to see if Acton-Boxborough maintains their performance throughout the season and the Mason/Solon matchups that have yet to be seen. I would caution against moving Harriton too low as it seems most of the issues they had were mechanical.

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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby pb5754[] » January 16th, 2019, 10:18 am

A new post-MIT prediction:

1) Solon
2) Troy
3) Acton-Boxborough
4) Mason
5) 7L
6) Mounds View
7) Mira Loma
8) Harriton
9) Boca Raton
10) WWPN

It may seem a little crazy, but I don't think it's entirely unreasonable.

MIT showed that LASA and Clements have definite weaknesses this year, so I think 7L will make it out of TX again. Additionally, Harriton had an extremely sub-par performance, so I think they'll take a heavy drop.

Meanwhile Acton-Boxborough and Boca Raton had outstanding performances, so I'd expect them to jump.

Mason is supposedly weaker this year, and there are rumors that Troy is too (mainly I just want to see Troy fall). Solon is the only top 4 team from last year that appears to have maintained its strength, so I think they'll take the title.
At the moment these results certainly seem plausible. It will be interesting to see if Acton-Boxborough maintains their performance throughout the season and the Mason/Solon matchups that have yet to be seen. I would caution against moving Harriton too low as it seems most of the issues they had were mechanical.
imo Harriton is too low, despite their poor performance at MIT. I'm thinking more like 6th or maybe 7th.
Also, WWP North is too low... They did well at MIT, and if anything, I would say that they are stronger than last year. Could be WWP South also :?: :?: :o

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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby Unome » January 16th, 2019, 12:13 pm

1. Troy
2. Solon (pending future results, might move them up)
3. Mounds View (pay attention)
4. Mason/Centerville (even odds on either in my opinion)
5. Acton-Boxborough
6. Harriton
7. Clements (2 places lower if Seven Lakes, 4 places lower if LASA)
8. Mira Loma
9. Boca Raton
10. Columbia
11. WW-P North
12. Enloe
13. Northville (seems similar strength as last year)
14. Camas
15. Stevenson
16. Grand Haven (9th-16th was really close for me)
17. Ward Melville
18. Bayard Rustin/Lower Merion (best bets on these two)
19. New Trier
20. Clark (hype)
21. Madison West (Hamilton is getting strong)
22. Pembroke Hill
23. Carmel
24. Chattahoochee
25. Brookwood
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby EastStroudsburg13 » January 16th, 2019, 12:53 pm

1. Troy
2. Solon (pending future results, might move them up)
3. Mounds View (pay attention)
4. Mason/Centerville (even odds on either in my opinion)
5. Acton-Boxborough
6. Harriton
7. Clements (2 places lower if Seven Lakes, 4 places lower if LASA)
8. Mira Loma
9. Boca Raton
10. Columbia
11. WW-P North
12. Enloe
13. Northville (seems similar strength as last year)
14. Camas

Work in progress
I am interested to see that you have no Illinois teams in your top 14, do you see last year's performance by Illinois teams as part of a trend rather than a one-off year?
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby Unome » January 16th, 2019, 1:37 pm

1. Troy
2. Solon (pending future results, might move them up)
3. Mounds View (pay attention)
4. Mason/Centerville (even odds on either in my opinion)
5. Acton-Boxborough
6. Harriton
7. Clements (2 places lower if Seven Lakes, 4 places lower if LASA)
8. Mira Loma
9. Boca Raton
10. Columbia
11. WW-P North
12. Enloe
13. Northville (seems similar strength as last year)
14. Camas

Work in progress
I am interested to see that you have no Illinois teams in your top 14, do you see last year's performance by Illinois teams as part of a trend rather than a one-off year?
Mainly I don't know where to place them. I mentally have Stevenson in 15th and NT a bit lower.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby DontWorryAboutIt » January 16th, 2019, 1:49 pm

1. Troy
2. Solon (pending future results, might move them up)
3. Mounds View (pay attention)
4. Mason/Centerville (even odds on either in my opinion)
5. Acton-Boxborough
6. Harriton
7. Clements (2 places lower if Seven Lakes, 4 places lower if LASA)
8. Mira Loma
9. Boca Raton
10. Columbia
11. WW-P North
12. Enloe
13. Northville (seems similar strength as last year)
14. Camas

Work in progress
I agree with most of those teams, however I don’t see centerville coming out of Ohio.
1. Troy
2. Solon
3. Mason
4. Harrison
5. Mounds View
Other than northville and Boca Raton(which are decent teams) Idk much about any of the other teams so I can’t really give much of an opinion on those.

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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby Unome » January 16th, 2019, 3:28 pm

Div B:
1. Solon
2. Kennedy
3. Daniel Wright
4. WW-P Community
5. Piedmont
6. Meads Mill
7. Beckendorff
8. Gelinas
9. Springhouse
10. Tower Heights
11. Highlands
12. Longfellow
13. Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
14. MI team 2
15. Hamilton
16. Ladue
17. Marie Murphy
18. Shady Side
19. Dodgen
20. Kealing
21. FSA
22. Bay Academy
23. Bedford
24. Chippewa
25. Fred J. Carnage


Also finished Div C:
1. Troy
2. Solon (pending future results, might move them up)
3. Mounds View (pay attention)
4. Mason/Centerville (even odds on either in my opinion)
5. Acton-Boxborough
6. Harriton
7. Clements (2 places lower if Seven Lakes, 4 places lower if LASA)
8. Mira Loma
9. Boca Raton
10. Columbia
11. WW-P North
12. Enloe
13. Northville (seems similar strength as last year)
14. Camas
15. Stevenson
16. Grand Haven (9th-16th was really close for me)
17. Ward Melville
18. Bayard Rustin/Lower Merion (best bets on these two)
19. New Trier
20. Clark (hype)
21. Madison West (Hamilton is getting strong)
22. Pembroke Hill
23. Carmel
24. Chattahoochee
25. Brookwood
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby FermiGod » January 16th, 2019, 3:30 pm

1. Troy
2. Solon
3. Mason
4. MV
5. Clements
6. Harriton
7. Acton
8. Mira Loma
9. New Trier
10. Columbia
11. WW-P North
12. Boca
13. Northville
14. Camas

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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby blueflannel27 » January 16th, 2019, 3:43 pm

MIT showed that LASA and Clements have definite weaknesses this year, so I think 7L will make it out of TX again.
Texas competitor here.

I disagree completely; if anything, MIT showed that Clements is stronger than it has been in the last 3 years. Looking at Clements' performance at MIT from 2017 and 2018, they tend to bomb pure build events as well as events like WIDI, which tanks their overall team placing. However, their placings in other events remain pretty competitive which the other top teams present. Furthermore, at state, they end up dropping these events anyway (because Texas allows each team to drop up to 5 events) so preparing for them throughout the year doesn't matter.

Now looking at their performance at MIT this year, they completely blew everyone out of the water in the events that they didn't bomb, medaling in 15 events. That level of success is nothing short of frightening for the other Texas teams, especially considering that they likely won't be competing in the events that they bombed.

LASA looks to be more well rounded in their events and would probably perform better at nationals because of that, but it's pretty clear that Clements has tons of talent and specializes in a lot more events. As for Seven Lakes, it's hard to tell at this point. Their performance at Texas invitationals isn't really a good indicator so we'll have to wait for SOUP to make sense of where they stand.

However, if I had to rank the likelihood of each of these three teams of making it to nats with the information we have, it would be Clements first, then LASA, then Seven Lakes.

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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Postby thecatgod » January 16th, 2019, 3:56 pm

Div B:
1. Solon
2. Kennedy
3. Daniel Wright
4. WW-P Community
5. Piedmont
6. Meads Mill
7. Beckendorff
8. Gelinas
9. Springhouse
10. Tower Heights
11. Highlands
12. Longfellow
13. Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
14. MI team 2
15. Hamilton
16. Ladue
17. Marie Murphy
18. Bedford
19. Shady Side
20. Dodgen
21. Kealing
22. FSA
23. Bay Academy
24. Bedford
25. Chippewa
Did you accidentally put bedford twice? If so, who replaces them?
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