Way Too Early Predictions

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EastStroudsburg13
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by EastStroudsburg13 » March 12th, 2019, 2:04 pm

BennyTheJett wrote:
Unome wrote: I wouldn't call Kentucky a big state :P
Is that a roast?
Not necessarily, more of where you put the benchmarks. I'd imagine for a lot of people, "big state" requires 2 national bids or a history of top 20 national placements, of which Kentucky has neither.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by kate! » March 12th, 2019, 2:09 pm

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:
BennyTheJett wrote:
Unome wrote: I wouldn't call Kentucky a big state :P
Is that a roast?
Not necessarily, more of where you put the benchmarks. I'd imagine for a lot of people, "big state" requires 2 national bids or a history of top 20 national placements, of which Kentucky has neither.
I didn't mean that it was actually a big state per se, I was just using the examples that 4Head brought up.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Pettywap » March 12th, 2019, 2:20 pm

ScottMaurer19 wrote:
Tailsfan101 wrote:
kate! wrote: I really hope you're joking because uh. This is not accurate at all. First of all, why do you think Beckendorff's going to win? Yes, they'll be top 10, but I really doubt that they're strong enough to win. Have you seen their Cornell results? Second, why is Marie Murphy so high? Again, they're a very good team and they performed wonderfully at regionals, but I certainly don't think they're good enough to be 2nd. We'll see once IL states happens. Plus, they haven't been to any competitions where they've competed against Daniel Wright. Third, I agree that Gelinas is definitely someone to watch out for this year, and they might just be good enough to be this high, but not in this lineup. If the other teams were accurate I might agree with you more. Fourth, why is Piedmont so high? Again, they are a strong team, and they usually perform much better later in the season, but I don't think they'll be able to beat the teams you placed them above. I agree that they'll be top 10 though. We'll see. Fifth, SSA could have the potential to place highly, and I can see them in the top 10, but it depends on a lot of factors. They did exceptionally well at West Liberty/Salem and Cornell, but I don't think that's enough to put them as 5th. Sixth, why is Solon so low? This is the main problem I'm seeing with these predictions. Yes, maybe Solon has been beaten by several teams at several invitationals this year, but that's not indicative of their states or nationals performance. They're definitely going to bounce back and they're definitely going to place higher than this. They are a strong, consistent team, and if they don't bomb anything too badly, they might just be able to win. Seventh, I don't even know where to start with this. Bay Academy? Really? I mean, sure, they have the potential to make nationals, and sure, they have the potential to be top 15, but there is no way they're getting top 10. I'm sorry, but I don't think they have enough experience with national-level tests and competitions, even though they've competed with national-level teams. Also, again with the lineup. There is absolutely, positively, no way they will beat Community. That leads me to my next point. Eighth, why is Community so low? At every competition, they've out-performed themselves as one of, if not the singular best team in the country. They've gotten high scores at every invitational they've been to and beaten their competitors by moderate to large margins. They should be placed in the top 5, if not top 3. Ninth, this is honestly the only point I agree with you on. Springhouse is still a strong team, but they're far weaker than last year, allowing themselves to be beaten by teams they destroyed last year. We'll see though, they could always bounce back, though it's not likely. Tenth, seriously? I hope you're kidding, not to mention that you included 3 New York teams. Eagle Hill, in a good year, will be in the top 15, and this is not a good year for them. They got 13th at Cornell, and even though they get better later in the season like Piedmont, I really don't see this happening. They've become a lot weaker in the past couple of years, and this year is not magically going to boost them back up to the status they had in 2017. Also, my eleventh point, where's Daniel Wright? I know everyone thinks they're not as good this year, but they absolutely have the potential to be top 10. Though invitational results have shown them to be relatively weak, this has been blown way out of proportion. They haven't been compared with the right teams and therefore haven't been given a chance to excel in competition as best they can. IL states will show you how good they are. Twelfth, what happened to the California teams? I feel like you may have forgotten about the West Coast, because Kennedy has been outstanding in the past two years. They got 4th at nationals last year. 4th. They set the bar for themselves in doing that, and they have surpassed themselves at their invitationals. They should show up in the top 5 of everyone's predictions. They've only been underestimated because they haven't been competing with East Coast teams, which makes it seem like the East Coast teams are better, and I beg to differ. Same goes for the SoCal teams. Both Jeffrey Trail and Kraemer have shown prowess in their competitions, especially against each other. At their regionals, the difference was a mere 12 points. At Mira Loma Invitational, Kraemer came in second place, losing only to Kennedy. The same thing happened to Jeffrey Trail at Mesa-Wilson. My point is, you shouldn't underestimate anyone, because even though they may not have competed with your East Coast teams, they still may be better. And overall, your predictions need some work. Take more competitions into account, and use a better method of comparing scores. Maybe next time you'll be accurate.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by whythelongface » March 12th, 2019, 3:05 pm

Pettywap wrote:
ScottMaurer19 wrote:
Tailsfan101 wrote: If you don't do speech and debate, you should.
SO > S&D ;)
Nah the correct abbreviation for speech and debate is SAD.
>implying speech and debate matter

Also what do you think about div C predictions now that New Jersey state results are somewhat confirmed?
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Congratulations to WW-P South/Grover for winning 2nd/1st place at NJ States!

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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by TheSquaad » March 12th, 2019, 6:20 pm

whythelongface wrote:
Pettywap wrote:
ScottMaurer19 wrote: SO > S&D ;)
Nah the correct abbreviation for speech and debate is SAD.
>implying speech and debate matter

Also what do you think about div C predictions now that New Jersey state results are somewhat confirmed?
I’d expect that South is just positioned 1 or 2 spots lower than North was in most previous div C predictions. North had a very strong invites performance over the entire season, and South didn’t quite reach the heights that North did when facing other major teams.

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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by 4Head » March 12th, 2019, 8:47 pm

whythelongface wrote: Also what do you think about div C predictions now that New Jersey state results are somewhat confirmed?
Ope. That’s a development
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by whythelongface » March 12th, 2019, 9:57 pm

TheSquaad wrote:I’d expect that South is just positioned 1 or 2 spots lower than North was in most previous div C predictions. North had a very strong invites performance over the entire season, and South didn’t quite reach the heights that North did when facing other major teams.
If I may ask, why? South didn't have strong performance at invitationals, yes, but the fact that they beat North, without dropping a single event, suggests strongly that they have improved very much in the month since SOUP.

I am of course rooting for my own team here, but why is it implausible that South does just as well, if not better, than the original predictions for North's placement?

Edit: Revised predictions for Division C
1. Troy (CA)
2. Solon
3. Mason
4. Harriton
5. LASA
6. ABRHS
7. Mounds View
8. Mira Loma
9. WW-P South
10. Enloe
WEST WINDSOR-PLAINSBORO HIGH SCHOOL SOUTH '18
EMORY UNIVERSITY '22
SONT 2017 5th Place Medalist [Microbe Mission]

"One little Sciolyer left all alone,
He went out and hanged himself and then there were none."

Congratulations to WW-P South/Grover for winning 2nd/1st place at NJ States!

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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by FermiGod » March 13th, 2019, 9:04 am

whythelongface wrote:
TheSquaad wrote:I’d expect that South is just positioned 1 or 2 spots lower than North was in most previous div C predictions. North had a very strong invites performance over the entire season, and South didn’t quite reach the heights that North did when facing other major teams.
If I may ask, why? South didn't have strong performance at invitationals, yes, but the fact that they beat North, without dropping a single event, suggests strongly that they have improved very much in the month since SOUP.

I am of course rooting for my own team here, but why is it implausible that South does just as well, if not better, than the original predictions for North's placement?

Edit: Revised predictions for Division C
1. Troy (CA)
2. Solon
3. Mason
4. Harriton
5. LASA
6. ABRHS
7. Mounds View
8. Mira Loma
9. WW-P South
10. Enloe
Why no IL teams?

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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by whythelongface » March 13th, 2019, 10:10 am

FermiGod wrote:
whythelongface wrote:
TheSquaad wrote:I’d expect that South is just positioned 1 or 2 spots lower than North was in most previous div C predictions. North had a very strong invites performance over the entire season, and South didn’t quite reach the heights that North did when facing other major teams.
If I may ask, why? South didn't have strong performance at invitationals, yes, but the fact that they beat North, without dropping a single event, suggests strongly that they have improved very much in the month since SOUP.

I am of course rooting for my own team here, but why is it implausible that South does just as well, if not better, than the original predictions for North's placement?

Edit: Revised predictions for Division C
1. Troy (CA)
2. Solon
3. Mason
4. Harriton
5. LASA
6. ABRHS
7. Mounds View
8. Mira Loma
9. WW-P South
10. Enloe
Why no IL teams?
Because I don't know much about either IL school so I just went off of past Nationals placements.
WEST WINDSOR-PLAINSBORO HIGH SCHOOL SOUTH '18
EMORY UNIVERSITY '22
SONT 2017 5th Place Medalist [Microbe Mission]

"One little Sciolyer left all alone,
He went out and hanged himself and then there were none."

Congratulations to WW-P South/Grover for winning 2nd/1st place at NJ States!

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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by TheSquaad » March 13th, 2019, 12:55 pm

whythelongface wrote:
TheSquaad wrote:I’d expect that South is just positioned 1 or 2 spots lower than North was in most previous div C predictions. North had a very strong invites performance over the entire season, and South didn’t quite reach the heights that North did when facing other major teams.
If I may ask, why? South didn't have strong performance at invitationals, yes, but the fact that they beat North, without dropping a single event, suggests strongly that they have improved very much in the month since SOUP.

I am of course rooting for my own team here, but why is it implausible that South does just as well, if not better, than the original predictions for North's placement?

Edit: Revised predictions for Division C
1. Troy (CA)
2. Solon
3. Mason
4. Harriton
5. LASA
6. ABRHS
7. Mounds View
8. Mira Loma
9. WW-P South
10. Enloe
South doesn't have the same caliber of invites performances at Nationals-level tournaments that North did (specifically looking at Penn). Considering that state tournaments are often extremely variable in final rankings due to iffy tests and fewer good teams causing placings to be extremely close, I don't think NJ states are as good predictors for nationals as major invites like Penn (which had great tests and amazing teams from all over like nationals). South is obviously a great team (I wouldn't be shocked to see them in the top 6), but their considerably lower performance at Penn makes rank them marginally lower than I would had North won states.

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