Way Too Early Predictions

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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Unome » March 13th, 2019, 1:32 pm

TheSquaad wrote:
whythelongface wrote:
TheSquaad wrote:I’d expect that South is just positioned 1 or 2 spots lower than North was in most previous div C predictions. North had a very strong invites performance over the entire season, and South didn’t quite reach the heights that North did when facing other major teams.
If I may ask, why? South didn't have strong performance at invitationals, yes, but the fact that they beat North, without dropping a single event, suggests strongly that they have improved very much in the month since SOUP.

I am of course rooting for my own team here, but why is it implausible that South does just as well, if not better, than the original predictions for North's placement?

Edit: Revised predictions for Division C
1. Troy (CA)
2. Solon
3. Mason
4. Harriton
5. LASA
6. ABRHS
7. Mounds View
8. Mira Loma
9. WW-P South
10. Enloe
South doesn't have the same caliber of invites performances at Nationals-level tournaments that North did (specifically looking at Penn). Considering that state tournaments are often extremely variable in final rankings due to iffy tests and fewer good teams causing placings to be extremely close, I don't think NJ states are as good predictors for nationals as major invites like Penn (which had great tests and amazing teams from all over like nationals). South is obviously a great team (I wouldn't be shocked to see them in the top 6), but their considerably lower performance at Penn makes rank them marginally lower than I would had North won states.
I expect South to be in the range of 12th, or something like that. Haven't had the chance to sit down and really look at results yet - I probably won't do that until April or so.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by pb5754 » March 13th, 2019, 2:11 pm

TheSquaad wrote:
whythelongface wrote:
TheSquaad wrote:I’d expect that South is just positioned 1 or 2 spots lower than North was in most previous div C predictions. North had a very strong invites performance over the entire season, and South didn’t quite reach the heights that North did when facing other major teams.
If I may ask, why? South didn't have strong performance at invitationals, yes, but the fact that they beat North, without dropping a single event, suggests strongly that they have improved very much in the month since SOUP.

I am of course rooting for my own team here, but why is it implausible that South does just as well, if not better, than the original predictions for North's placement?

Edit: Revised predictions for Division C
1. Troy (CA)
2. Solon
3. Mason
4. Harriton
5. LASA
6. ABRHS
7. Mounds View
8. Mira Loma
9. WW-P South
10. Enloe
South doesn't have the same caliber of invites performances at Nationals-level tournaments that North did (specifically looking at Penn). Considering that state tournaments are often extremely variable in final rankings due to iffy tests and fewer good teams causing placings to be extremely close, I don't think NJ states are as good predictors for nationals as major invites like Penn (which had great tests and amazing teams from all over like nationals). South is obviously a great team (I wouldn't be shocked to see them in the top 6), but their considerably lower performance at Penn makes rank them marginally lower than I would had North won states.
Note that South was missing around 1/3 of their states team at SOUP.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by FermiGod » March 13th, 2019, 5:04 pm

1. Stevenson
2. Troy
3. Mason
4. Solon
5. Clements
6. ABRHS
7. Harriton
8. MV
9. New Trier
10. Mira Loma

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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Crimesolver » March 13th, 2019, 6:50 pm

FermiGod wrote:1. Stevenson
2. Troy
3. Mason
4. Solon
5. Clements
6. ABRHS
7. Harriton
8. MV
9. New Trier
10. Mira Loma
As a Californian not going to troy, I agree
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Raleway » March 13th, 2019, 6:59 pm

Both WWPN/WWPS consistently never put forth their best teams nor builds; I'd be surprised if they WWPS didn't place top 5 if they keep studying and prepping.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by builderguy135 » March 13th, 2019, 7:35 pm

Raleway wrote:Both WWPN/WWPS consistently never put forth their best teams nor builds; I'd be surprised if they WWPS didn't place top 5 if they keep studying and prepping.
One complaint (?) I've been hearing a lot is that since they don't stack at the beginning of the season, every builder has to build their own vehicle/boomi/plane/mission. This leads to 4 of each build, and some aren't extremely good. Some of their builders are DEFINITELY extremely good though, especially on MVT, boomi, and wright.
On the other hand, my brother and I have been doing the same builds for community since the beginning of the season. This way we're more familiar with the build together, rather than having to switch partners for every competition.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by whythelongface » March 13th, 2019, 11:57 pm

Raleway wrote:Both WWPN/WWPS consistently never put forth their best teams nor builds; I'd be surprised if they WWPS didn't place top 5 if they keep studying and prepping.
Mainly I wanted to not get my own hopes up when I made those predictions. I definitely think South has the potential to do extremely well this year, but I'm not completely familiar with the caliber of the teams here and it's always good to predict conservatively.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Deathstalker » March 16th, 2019, 12:22 pm

Here are my B predictions cuz I don't seem to be seeing enough of them.

1. Community*
2. Kennedy*
3. Solon*
4. DWJHS*
5. Beckendorff*
6. Springhouse
7. Kraemer/Jeffrey Trail
8. SSA
9. Piedmont
10. Gelinas

*Note that these spots (in my opinion) are extremely variable.

I don't really think that DWJHS is gonna do as bad as people say they are, they're still a very good team. I also don't really think that Solon is gonna do as good as people say they are. They haven't been doing so hot this invitational season.. I'm really rooting for them though, hopefully they can blow my expectations away at States. Also, Shady Side. They've been doing consistently well this season and only seem to be getting better. My placement might be a little inflated for SSA though. A lot of people are saying stuff about Gelinas, and while I agree that this is a really great season for them, I doubt that it indicates a top 5 spot at nats. The "they beat Solon" excuse can't really be used when the deficit was 3 points and Solon had bombed in several events. However, I do think they can get into the top 10. Overall this invitational season will warrant a very interesting nationals competition.

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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Tailsfan101 » March 16th, 2019, 12:32 pm

Deathstalker wrote:1. Community
2. Kennedy*
3. Solon*
4. DWJHS*
5. Beckendorff*
6. Springhouse
7. Kraemer/Jeffrey Trail
8. SSA
9. Piedmont
10. Gelinas

*Note that these spots (in my opinion) are extremely variable.
My thoughts on these predictions:
1. Community does seem to have the potential to win this year, no argument.
2. Kennedy seems a little too high, I would probably switch them with Solon. While they are a very talented team, I don't know about beating Solon.
3. Solon is still a very good team, and I can't really envision anyone except maybe Community beating them this year.
4. I agree with the fact that DWJHS won't do as bad as people say; however, I still think the 6-8 range would be best for them this year.
5. This seems about right for Beckendorff.
6. Springhouse probably will end up somewhere around here.
7. Whether Kraemer or Jeffrey Trail wins SoCal, I don't think either of them will do quite this well. Granted, Jeffrey Trail got 9th in their first year at Nats, but I don't think they'd do too much better.
8. SSA is a bit too high for my liking. I don't think they're quite at the level of getting 8th yet, at best they'll maybe sneak into 10th.
9. Piedmont may be a little low, but I probably wouldn't put them higher than 6th, so this may be somewhat accurate.
10. Gelinas is way too low. There have been many indicators that this year they'll finally do better than 10th or 11th, and in my opinion they should be more around 5th.

EDIT: As a heads up, I'll be posting predictions for all 60 places for both divisions in the next few days, I'm just waiting until after this weekend to possibly change some things.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Deathstalker » March 16th, 2019, 12:54 pm

Yeah, I mean I think I want to switch SSA and Gelinas, but I can't really envision them doing better than Beckendorff or DWJHS like some other people are putting them as.

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