Way Too Early Predictions

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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by sciolyperson1 » January 16th, 2019, 6:24 pm

Unome wrote:
kate! wrote:I've heard that Community didn't start going to invitationals until several years ago, and look how well they've done.
This is more like evidence why invitationals are very beneficial. They were 25th in 2015, 15th in 2016, 11th in 2017, and 3rd last year (their best finish since 2009).
We got third last year because of our amazing captain (not me, someone way better lol) who actually cared about the team.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by TheSquaad » January 16th, 2019, 6:34 pm

blueflannel27 wrote:
TheSquaad wrote:MIT showed that LASA and Clements have definite weaknesses this year, so I think 7L will make it out of TX again.
Texas competitor here.

I disagree completely; if anything, MIT showed that Clements is stronger than it has been in the last 3 years. Looking at Clements' performance at MIT from 2017 and 2018, they tend to bomb pure build events as well as events like WIDI, which tanks their overall team placing. However, their placings in other events remain pretty competitive which the other top teams present. Furthermore, at state, they end up dropping these events anyway (because Texas allows each team to drop up to 5 events) so preparing for them throughout the year doesn't matter.

Now looking at their performance at MIT this year, they completely blew everyone out of the water in the events that they didn't bomb, medaling in 15 events. That level of success is nothing short of frightening for the other Texas teams, especially considering that they likely won't be competing in the events that they bombed.

LASA looks to be more well rounded in their events and would probably perform better at nationals because of that, but it's pretty clear that Clements has tons of talent and specializes in a lot more events. As for Seven Lakes, it's hard to tell at this point. Their performance at Texas invitationals isn't really a good indicator so we'll have to wait for SOUP to make sense of where they stand.

However, if I had to rank the likelihood of each of these three teams of making it to nats with the information we have, it would be Clements first, then LASA, then Seven Lakes.
Did not realize Texas let you drop 5 events. In that case I could definitely see clements getting out. I’d probably rate them about the same though (ie not top 3)

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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by builderguy135 » January 16th, 2019, 6:47 pm

Unome wrote:
kate! wrote:I've heard that Community didn't start going to invitationals until several years ago, and look how well they've done.
This is more like evidence why invitationals are very beneficial. They were 25th in 2015, 15th in 2016, 11th in 2017, and 3rd last year (their best finish since 2009).
And a new coach :D
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by DontWorryAboutIt » January 16th, 2019, 7:18 pm

Solon sweep tho?? :?: :D
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Riptide » January 16th, 2019, 7:37 pm

TheSquaad wrote:
blueflannel27 wrote:
TheSquaad wrote:MIT showed that LASA and Clements have definite weaknesses this year, so I think 7L will make it out of TX again.
Texas competitor here.

I disagree completely; if anything, MIT showed that Clements is stronger than it has been in the last 3 years. Looking at Clements' performance at MIT from 2017 and 2018, they tend to bomb pure build events as well as events like WIDI, which tanks their overall team placing. However, their placings in other events remain pretty competitive which the other top teams present. Furthermore, at state, they end up dropping these events anyway (because Texas allows each team to drop up to 5 events) so preparing for them throughout the year doesn't matter.

Now looking at their performance at MIT this year, they completely blew everyone out of the water in the events that they didn't bomb, medaling in 15 events. That level of success is nothing short of frightening for the other Texas teams, especially considering that they likely won't be competing in the events that they bombed.

LASA looks to be more well rounded in their events and would probably perform better at nationals because of that, but it's pretty clear that Clements has tons of talent and specializes in a lot more events. As for Seven Lakes, it's hard to tell at this point. Their performance at Texas invitationals isn't really a good indicator so we'll have to wait for SOUP to make sense of where they stand.

However, if I had to rank the likelihood of each of these three teams of making it to nats with the information we have, it would be Clements first, then LASA, then Seven Lakes.
Did not realize Texas let you drop 5 events. In that case I could definitely see clements getting out. I’d probably rate them about the same though (ie not top 3)
Just to clarify when teams 'drop' events, they must still compete in 23 events. Texas runs 5 state trial events, essentially offering 28 events in which teams select 23 to compete in, receiving a score of '0' in events they drop.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by IvanGe » January 17th, 2019, 9:41 am

wzhang5460 wrote:
kate! wrote:
Unome wrote:Div B:
1. Solon
2. Kennedy
3. Daniel Wright
4. WW-P Community
5. Piedmont
6. Meads Mill
7. Beckendorff
8. Gelinas
9. Springhouse
10. Tower Heights
11. Highlands
12. Longfellow
13. Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
14. MI team 2
15. Hamilton
16. Ladue
17. Marie Murphy
18. Shady Side
19. Dodgen
20. Kealing
21. FSA
22. Bay Academy
23. Bedford
24. Chippewa
25. Fred J. Carnage
Though Springhouse is looking slightly weaker based on the invitational results we've seen so far, I think that's mostly because they're unstacked, and they'll definitely improve as the season goes on. Also, what makes you think that Kennedy will do that well? Personally, I think the SoCal team should be higher and Gelinas should be lower (they do look like they're doing well this season, but they can't possibly be doing better than they have for four years, especially without their former coach). And though Bay Academy has performed well at the invitationals they've gone to, those aren't really an adequate indicator as to who'll take the second New York bid. After all, the other three teams in the top 5 at states last year haven't competed with Gelinas/Bay Academy yet.
Springhouse was far from unstacked at Rustin. If you look at the results, Springhouse X got 3rd and Springhouse Y got 22nd. We'll see at Cornell how Gelinas, Eagle Hill, Goff, and Bay Academy compare at Cornell. Murphy's going to have a hard time at states considering they are not going to any invitationals this year.

NY placements will be clearer after Cornell. We still have plenty of work to do such as our uh five events that got in the 20's at Rustin :evil: so I would not rank us up that high. However, I think we were technically unstacked at Rustin looking that we got 2nd and 5th.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by swagmcswag1223 » January 17th, 2019, 9:46 am

Yes I would agree, we were definitely unstacked at Rustin. Our team placements were the same as Springhouse last year, who were unstacked at Rustin. Also, you need invitationals to see your weaknesses and as practice. That's why Solon is good, they go to 9 invis

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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Paypog » January 17th, 2019, 3:14 pm

Unome wrote:Div B:
1. Solon
2. Kennedy
3. Daniel Wright
4. WW-P Community
5. Piedmont
6. Meads Mill
7. Beckendorff
8. Gelinas
9. Springhouse
10. Tower Heights
11. Highlands
12. Longfellow
13. Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
14. MI team 2
15. Hamilton
16. Ladue
17. Marie Murphy
18. Shady Side
19. Dodgen
20. Kealing
21. FSA
22. Bay Academy
23. Bedford
24. Chippewa
25. Fred J. Carnage
Dang. Unome do you really think SSA is gonna place that low after 13th last year?
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Unome » January 17th, 2019, 3:15 pm

Paypog wrote:
Unome wrote:Div B:
1. Solon
2. Kennedy
3. Daniel Wright
4. WW-P Community
5. Piedmont
6. Meads Mill
7. Beckendorff
8. Gelinas
9. Springhouse
10. Tower Heights
11. Highlands
12. Longfellow
13. Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
14. MI team 2
15. Hamilton
16. Ladue
17. Marie Murphy
18. Shady Side
19. Dodgen
20. Kealing
21. FSA
22. Bay Academy
23. Bedford
24. Chippewa
25. Fred J. Carnage
Dang. Unome do you really think SSA is gonna place that low after 13th last year?
No, I just threw this together in a few minutes. I didn't realize they were 13th last year, thought it was like 16th or something.
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Re: Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Anomaly » January 17th, 2019, 3:21 pm

Paypog wrote:
Unome wrote:Div B:
1. Solon
2. Kennedy
3. Daniel Wright
4. WW-P Community
5. Piedmont
6. Meads Mill
7. Beckendorff
8. Gelinas
9. Springhouse
10. Tower Heights
11. Highlands
12. Longfellow
13. Jeffrey Trail/Kraemer
14. MI team 2
15. Hamilton
16. Ladue
17. Marie Murphy
18. Shady Side
19. Dodgen
20. Kealing
21. FSA
22. Bay Academy
23. Bedford
24. Chippewa
25. Fred J. Carnage
Dang. Unome do you really think SSA is gonna place that low after 13th last year?
you say you guys suck this year and then you go and criticize the predictions for being too low in expectations ;)
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