DuPont Team Enterprise Award Watch

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dxu46
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Re: DuPont Team Enterprise Award Watch

Post by dxu46 » April 28th, 2019, 7:59 pm

My predictions:
Eagle Hill/Ladue for B
Pioneer/Rustin for C (not very familiar tho)

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Re: DuPont Team Enterprise Award Watch

Post by kate! » April 28th, 2019, 8:32 pm

dxu46 wrote:My predictions:
Eagle Hill/Ladue for B
Pioneer/Rustin for C (not very familiar tho)
Several concerns: first of all, do you really think both Marie Murphy and Lakeshore will make it into the top 10? Because that's the only reason you wouldn't be considering them too. A lot of people are underestimating Lakeshore because they've seen Meads Mill dominate for so long, but if you take a look at past results they are definitely not a team to be messed with. And second of all, Pioneer has literally never been to nationals before... not saying they're not good, but did you forget that Ward Melville exists? I agree with your Rustin and Eagle Hill picks though, Rustin is the obvious favorite for div C.
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Re: DuPont Team Enterprise Award Watch

Post by dxu46 » April 28th, 2019, 8:40 pm

kate! wrote:
dxu46 wrote:My predictions:
Eagle Hill/Ladue for B
Pioneer/Rustin for C (not very familiar tho)
Several concerns: first of all, do you really think both Marie Murphy and Lakeshore will make it into the top 10? Because that's the only reason you wouldn't be considering them too. A lot of people are underestimating Lakeshore because they've seen Meads Mill dominate for so long, but if you take a look at past results they are definitely not a team to be messed with. And second of all, Pioneer has literally never been to nationals before... not saying they're not good, but did you forget that Ward Melville exists? I agree with your Rustin and Eagle Hill picks though, Rustin is the obvious favorite for div C.
Whoops, forgot about Lakeshore. I'd say EH and Lakeshore compete for B - Ladue bombs too much (see 2017 nats)
Not really sure about Pioneer (and ward too, can't discern much). Now that I'm thinking about it, Pioneer is unlikely, but I think I just chose them because I saw Northville outside of top 10 last year (i blame it on sleep)

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Re: DuPont Team Enterprise Award Watch

Post by EastStroudsburg13 » April 29th, 2019, 7:37 am

It's worth considering Kraemer here; on the off chance that they just miss the top 10, they'd be heavy contenders for this award.

Marie Murphy has a legitimate chance of making the top 10 and being ineligible for this. Michigan was a whole big mess this year, so it's hard to tell how Lakeshore does in their return, but I'd guess that 15th is their floor, based on other Michigan teams that have made it, so they seem like a good bet to win. Ladue also has history on their side, as they had a 4-year streak of top 14 finishes going before last year. Eagle Hill was already trending down before not making it to nationals last year, so I'm not super high on their chances; I see them in the 16th-20th range, which wouldn't have been enough either of the past two years. Harlan Rowe has an uphill battle in this same way, except they're also facing the obstacles for a first-ever team (HINT TO NSO: make teams that have made nationals in the past 3 years ineligible. I will continue to bring this up! :P ) Same for Raymond Park, who I do see as a good contender for top 20, but there might be too many other contenders for them to beat.

So, TL;DR, Lakeshore and Ladue are my favorites if Marie Murphy makes top 10. Of the two, if I had to pick, I'd go Lakeshore, but I may change my mind later. I'm rooting for an actually new team like Harlan Rowe or Raymond Park to win it though, because the award should really focus on new teams rather than perennial teams that just had a one-year blip.

As for C, I'm surprised more people aren't talking about WWPS; I don't think it's a foregone conclusion they make the top 10. They're probably going to be right around that edge, and if they just miss it, they have to be the favorites for this award. Of the remaining schools, I would rank them as Rustin, then Pioneer, then Ward; I think while Ward might be more of a safe pick than Pioneer, Pioneer has more upside to beat Rustin.
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Re: DuPont Team Enterprise Award Watch

Post by kate! » April 29th, 2019, 7:46 am

EastStroudsburg13 wrote: As for C, I'm surprised more people aren't talking about WWPS; I don't think it's a foregone conclusion they make the top 10. They're probably going to be right around that edge, and if they just miss it, they have to be the favorites for this award. Of the remaining schools, I would rank them as Rustin, then Pioneer, then Ward; I think while Ward might be more of a safe pick than Pioneer, Pioneer has more upside to beat Rustin.
Maybe I'm a little biased, but I think it's worth it to mention that Ward Melville beat Rustin at both the invitationals they competed at together (albeit, Ward Melville seems to be stronger earlier in the season). I'm not sure your reasoning for putting Pioneer ahead of Ward Melville, though. This is Pioneer's first time at nationals, and according to you, "Michigan was a whole big mess this year." People are predicting Ward Melville as somewhere around 16th/17th/18th, while I'd personally predict Pioneer at 20th. We'll see, but I think you might be overestimating Pioneer a little. (And again, I might be a little biased towards Ward Melville.)
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Re: DuPont Team Enterprise Award Watch

Post by EastStroudsburg13 » April 29th, 2019, 7:54 am

kate! wrote:
EastStroudsburg13 wrote: As for C, I'm surprised more people aren't talking about WWPS; I don't think it's a foregone conclusion they make the top 10. They're probably going to be right around that edge, and if they just miss it, they have to be the favorites for this award. Of the remaining schools, I would rank them as Rustin, then Pioneer, then Ward; I think while Ward might be more of a safe pick than Pioneer, Pioneer has more upside to beat Rustin.
Maybe I'm a little biased, but I think it's worth it to mention that Ward Melville beat Rustin at both the invitationals they competed at together (albeit, Ward Melville seems to be stronger earlier in the season). I'm not sure your reasoning for putting Pioneer ahead of Ward Melville, though. This is Pioneer's first time at nationals, and according to you, "Michigan was a whole big mess this year." People are predicting Ward Melville as somewhere around 16th/17th/18th, while I'd personally predict Pioneer at 20th. We'll see, but I think you might be overestimating Pioneer a little. (And again, I might be a little biased towards Ward Melville.)
"Michigan was a whole big mess" was referring to Div B. I don't think we're actually in disagreement here; if I was putting together a ranking, I would probably put Ward a spot or two above Pioneer. But for the purposes of this ranking, team upside is the key, and if Pioneer can overcome the first-year hurdles, I have more faith in them placing high enough (read: beating Rustin) to win the award than Ward.

This is also flying off the seat of my pants, and once I have time to sit down and actually compile rankings, I may wind up swinging one way or the other.
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Re: DuPont Team Enterprise Award Watch

Post by kate! » April 29th, 2019, 8:01 am

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:
kate! wrote:
EastStroudsburg13 wrote: As for C, I'm surprised more people aren't talking about WWPS; I don't think it's a foregone conclusion they make the top 10. They're probably going to be right around that edge, and if they just miss it, they have to be the favorites for this award. Of the remaining schools, I would rank them as Rustin, then Pioneer, then Ward; I think while Ward might be more of a safe pick than Pioneer, Pioneer has more upside to beat Rustin.
Maybe I'm a little biased, but I think it's worth it to mention that Ward Melville beat Rustin at both the invitationals they competed at together (albeit, Ward Melville seems to be stronger earlier in the season). I'm not sure your reasoning for putting Pioneer ahead of Ward Melville, though. This is Pioneer's first time at nationals, and according to you, "Michigan was a whole big mess this year." People are predicting Ward Melville as somewhere around 16th/17th/18th, while I'd personally predict Pioneer at 20th. We'll see, but I think you might be overestimating Pioneer a little. (And again, I might be a little biased towards Ward Melville.)
"Michigan was a whole big mess" was referring to Div B. I don't think we're actually in disagreement here; if I was putting together a ranking, I would probably put Ward a spot or two above Pioneer. But for the purposes of this ranking, team upside is the key, and if Pioneer can overcome the first-year hurdles, I have more faith in them placing high enough (read: beating Rustin) to win the award than Ward.

This is also flying off the seat of my pants, and once I have time to sit down and actually compile rankings, I may wind up swinging one way or the other.
I doubt that Pioneer will beat Rustin, though. Rustin has a lot more experience than them and seems to be generally consistent. And though I don't know much about Pioneer, I do know that Rustin is a relatively strong team and will most likely place in the 14th-19th range.
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Re: DuPont Team Enterprise Award Watch

Post by SciNerd42 » April 29th, 2019, 8:03 am

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:It's worth considering Kraemer here; on the off chance that they just miss the top 10, they'd be heavy contenders for this award.

I'm rooting for an actually new team like Harlan Rowe or Raymond Park to win it though, because the award should really focus on new teams rather than perennial teams that just had a one-year blip.
Under East's idea who would have won this last year? How many teams would be eligible this year?

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Re: DuPont Team Enterprise Award Watch

Post by EastStroudsburg13 » April 29th, 2019, 8:07 am

SciNerd42 wrote:
EastStroudsburg13 wrote:It's worth considering Kraemer here; on the off chance that they just miss the top 10, they'd be heavy contenders for this award.

I'm rooting for an actually new team like Harlan Rowe or Raymond Park to win it though, because the award should really focus on new teams rather than perennial teams that just had a one-year blip.
Under East's idea who would have won this last year? How many teams would be eligible this year?
Last year, the winners would have been the same. The previous year, International Academy Central would have won the award instead of Mentor.
kate! wrote: I doubt that Pioneer will beat Rustin, though. Rustin has a lot more experience than them and seems to be generally consistent. And though I don't know much about Pioneer, I do know that Rustin is a relatively strong team and will most likely place in the 14th-19th range.
I know that Rustin is more experienced, that's why I ranked them as more likely to win the award. But Rustin and Ward are fairly secure in their ranges, and Pioneer has a wider range of outcomes.

Of course, if this award was done the way I think it should, Pioneer would be the clear favorite.
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Re: DuPont Team Enterprise Award Watch

Post by SciNerd42 » April 29th, 2019, 8:09 am

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:
SciNerd42 wrote:
EastStroudsburg13 wrote:It's worth considering Kraemer here; on the off chance that they just miss the top 10, they'd be heavy contenders for this award.

I'm rooting for an actually new team like Harlan Rowe or Raymond Park to win it though, because the award should really focus on new teams rather than perennial teams that just had a one-year blip.
Under East's idea who would have won this last year? How many teams would be eligible this year?
Last year, the winners would have been the same. The previous year, International Academy Central would have won the award instead of Mentor.
.
Then I don't understand why we don't do that

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