2020 Way Too Early Predictions

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2020 Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Unome » June 24th, 2019, 1:06 pm

Time to get this started again! Some points to consider from 2019 as we start speculating,

Div B:
- Will Kennedy be even stronger next year? That would be unprecedented, but sub-150 is already unprecedented.
- Kraemer finished strongly in their first Nationals appearance, however they didn't do worse than state and invitational scores would have predicted, like many first-year qualifiers do. Will they improve next year? Kennedy did, after all.
- I'm not familiar with the composition of the other top teams, presumably some people here can predict a bit based on that.
- Highlands continues to push closer to top 10, putting a large margin between themselves and Slauson.
- Harlan Rowe's first Nationals qualification, and the fallout in PA next year, should be interesting.
- Evergreen, and the WA teams in general, have been unusually strong in recent years.
- In only one of the last five years has a second Ohio B team finished in the top ten, a departure from earlier trends which had two in the top ten for many years.
- Will Piedmont return from their fall? I'd bet against it, given their consistently low event rankings.

Div C:
- The top few teams were noticeably weaker, but there was a massive group of teams finishing unusually strongly below that. The 400-point mark all the way down at 16th/17th is unprecedented - historically it's been closer to 10th-12th.
- If Troy wins again, they will be the first Div C team to ever win Nationals four years in a row.
- Mason is likely going to continue to be competitive, as far as I can tell. I anticipate another year with two Ohio teams in the top ten.
- Harriton was one of very few teams to exceed expectations at Nationals by a large amount. I have no good theories as to why they struggled so much early in the season, or whether they'll continue to be in the top 3 next year.
- Pioneer claimed an unforeseen strong finish in their first year at Nationals. While it was partially the fortune of standing atop a massive pileup, 309 is an incredible score in any year - that speaks more to the strength of the teams below them. Their future looks interesting.
- Nothing new from the IL teams, who continue to hover in the same range. I don't anticipate anything unusual there, unless Naperville North manages an upset. Likewise, Texas seems stable - or, as stable as it can be, given the circumstances.
- I expect no changes from Acton-Boxborough in the future, although they had the misfortune of being narrowly beaten by a number of teams this year. Likewise, Columbia had a very strong performance that put them outside of the top 10 but only 20 points from the top 6.
- TJ is strong now - something that has been speculated about for a while now, particularly as VA Science Olympiad has grown in recent years. It should be fun to see what they do next year.
- Mounds View is out of the top ten, after a six year streak. I'm definitely looking forward to seeing how next year goes, considering the circumstances of their rise. Are they going to be a long-term fixture, or was it an extended
peak?
- Clark continues their slow and steady ascent, breaking the top 20 as expected. They have yet to show any signs of stopping.
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Re: 2020 Way Too Early Predictions

Post by EastStroudsburg13 » June 24th, 2019, 1:45 pm

Unome wrote: - Harriton was one of very few teams to exceed expectations at Nationals by a large amount. I have no good theories as to why they struggled so much early in the season, or whether they'll continue to be in the top 3 next year.
They were always strong medal-wise at tournaments this year, but their downfall was some significant bombs. Unsurprisingly, they cleaned that up by states and then nationals. I was definitely surprised by 3rd, but having predicted them 6th, it really wasn't too much of a difference. My algorithm had them 4th, so I could have been even bolder.

I said all year that Harriton is never simply "weak". If I have to see any predictions next year that put Harriton outside the top 10, I'm gonna have to shake some sense into people.
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Re: 2020 Way Too Early Predictions

Post by CookiePie1 » June 24th, 2019, 2:09 pm

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:
Unome wrote: - Harriton was one of very few teams to exceed expectations at Nationals by a large amount. I have no good theories as to why they struggled so much early in the season, or whether they'll continue to be in the top 3 next year.
They were always strong medal-wise at tournaments this year, but their downfall was some significant bombs. Unsurprisingly, they cleaned that up by states and then nationals. I was definitely surprised by 3rd, but having predicted them 6th, it really wasn't too much of a difference. My algorithm had them 4th, so I could have been even bolder.

I said all year that Harriton is never simply "weak". If I have to see any predictions next year that put Harriton outside the top 10, I'm gonna have to shake some sense into people.
how does your algorithm work?
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Re: 2020 Way Too Early Predictions

Post by EastStroudsburg13 » June 24th, 2019, 2:14 pm

CookiePie1 wrote:
EastStroudsburg13 wrote:
Unome wrote: - Harriton was one of very few teams to exceed expectations at Nationals by a large amount. I have no good theories as to why they struggled so much early in the season, or whether they'll continue to be in the top 3 next year.
They were always strong medal-wise at tournaments this year, but their downfall was some significant bombs. Unsurprisingly, they cleaned that up by states and then nationals. I was definitely surprised by 3rd, but having predicted them 6th, it really wasn't too much of a difference. My algorithm had them 4th, so I could have been even bolder.

I said all year that Harriton is never simply "weak". If I have to see any predictions next year that put Harriton outside the top 10, I'm gonna have to shake some sense into people.
how does your algorithm work?
Here's a brief explanation: viewtopic.php?f=296&t=14056&p=391446#p391446
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Re: 2020 Way Too Early Predictions

Post by builderguy135 » June 24th, 2019, 3:30 pm

Quick predictions:

Kennedy will likely win again.
Solon will become weaker by a little bit, maybe resulting in 3rd to 5th.
I honestly don't know anything about Daniel Wright but I'm thinking they'll probably take second to fourth, since Solon is gonna become weaker.
Community will go all the way down to 8th-12th, due to freshmen joining the North team and overall a weaker freshmen class (sorry literal rhino and hmmm :/).
Springhouse might go up a few ranks with the downfall of the top teams, but they haven't been doing so well lately so who knows?
Gelinas I heard is also getting a weaker freshmen class, but I think they'll still get top 10.
Beckendorff almost definitely will rise up to maybe 2nd if their op bio people don't leave.
I also heard Kraemer had a very young team (many 7th and 8th graders) and one 9th grader on the team got 4 out of 6 medals for their team so who knows? I think they'll get 5th.
Again, I don't know much about Longfellow but just based on their bombs I think they underperformed (could've got 6th on a good day) but I think they'll stay at 8th.
That's really it, I guess.
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Re: 2020 Way Too Early Predictions

Post by drcubbin » June 24th, 2019, 4:08 pm

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:
CookiePie1 wrote:
EastStroudsburg13 wrote: They were always strong medal-wise at tournaments this year, but their downfall was some significant bombs. Unsurprisingly, they cleaned that up by states and then nationals. I was definitely surprised by 3rd, but having predicted them 6th, it really wasn't too much of a difference. My algorithm had them 4th, so I could have been even bolder.

I said all year that Harriton is never simply "weak". If I have to see any predictions next year that put Harriton outside the top 10, I'm gonna have to shake some sense into people.
how does your algorithm work?
Here's a brief explanation: viewtopic.php?f=296&t=14056&p=391446#p391446
Don't write Bay Academy off yet ;) We may have a trick or two up our sleeve yet :D

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Re: 2020 Way Too Early Predictions

Post by sciolyperson1 » June 24th, 2019, 4:30 pm

drcubbin wrote:
EastStroudsburg13 wrote:
CookiePie1 wrote:
how does your algorithm work?
Here's a brief explanation: viewtopic.php?f=296&t=14056&p=391446#p391446
Don't write Bay Academy off yet ;) We may have a trick or two up our sleeve yet :D
So might Gelinas, Eagle Hill, or Goff.
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Re: 2020 Way Too Early Predictions

Post by drcubbin » June 24th, 2019, 5:01 pm

sciolyperson1 wrote:
drcubbin wrote:
EastStroudsburg13 wrote: Here's a brief explanation: viewtopic.php?f=296&t=14056&p=391446#p391446
Don't write Bay Academy off yet ;) We may have a trick or two up our sleeve yet :D
So might Gelinas, Eagle Hill, or Goff.
You're right. They might. And that's what makes NY a great competitive state 8-)

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Re: 2020 Way Too Early Predictions

Post by TheCrazyChemist » June 24th, 2019, 6:11 pm

builderguy135 wrote:Quick predictions:
I honestly don't know anything about Daniel Wright but I'm thinking they'll probably take second to fourth, since Solon is gonna become weaker.
The DWJHS captain told me that he thought that DWJHS was going to become weaker. I still wouldn't put it out of their range to get 2nd, given their history.
Community gets at least 3rd again next year (I have no idea why, I just have a feeling.)

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Re: 2020 Way Too Early Predictions

Post by Unome » June 24th, 2019, 6:39 pm

I don't expect a significant decline for Solon MS, their lowest score in the last 11(?) years of continuous Nationals qualification is 253. That score would have still kept them 5th or higher for all 11 of those years.
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