Statistical Measure of Event Bombs

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Unome
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Statistical Measure of Event Bombs

Post by Unome » February 15th, 2018, 10:28 am

I spent some time working on a statistical measurement of event bombs, after figuring out that bidirectional measures such as standard deviation aren't quite as useful for this purpose. A description of the process I used:

Inputs - a team's ranks in each of the scored events, and a critical value between 0 and 1. Multiply the team score by the critical value to get the target value. Subtract the largest rank from the target value, and repeat this with the next largest value, etc. until doing so would bring the value below zero. Take the remainder and divide it by the next largest rank, and add the result to the number of subtractions made. Divide this value by the maximum possible value for this, which is the critical value multiplied by the number of scored events, to get the final statistic

I've attached a spreadsheet that calculates the statistic, in case anyone wants to use it/cares. It can be fairly easily replicated in most programming languages (I made an attempt with Java).

Generally, values for the weakest teams tend to range around 0.9 or so, since they're basically just finishing low in most or all of the events. Generally, I would consider anything under 0.4 or 0.35 to indicate significant event bombs. The lowest value that I found was around 0.15, for Piedmont IB Middle School at the NC State Tournament last year.

I have no idea what one would use this statistic for, but I found it interesting so I thought I would share it :)
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scioly events.xlsx
Spreadsheet to calculate the statistic
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Re: Statistical Measure of Event Bombs

Post by PM2017 » February 15th, 2018, 6:05 pm

Unome wrote:I spent some time working on a statistical measurement of event bombs, after figuring out that bidirectional measures such as standard deviation aren't quite as useful for this purpose. A description of the process I used:

Inputs - a team's ranks in each of the scored events, and a critical value between 0 and 1. Multiply the team score by the critical value to get the target value. Subtract the largest rank from the target value, and repeat this with the next largest value, etc. until doing so would bring the value below zero. Take the remainder and divide it by the next largest rank, and add the result to the number of subtractions made. Divide this value by the maximum possible value for this, which is the critical value multiplied by the number of scored events, to get the final statistic

I've attached a spreadsheet that calculates the statistic, in case anyone wants to use it/cares. It can be fairly easily replicated in most programming languages (I made an attempt with Java).

Generally, values for the weakest teams tend to range around 0.9 or so, since they're basically just finishing low in most or all of the events. Generally, I would consider anything under 0.4 or 0.35 to indicate significant event bombs. The lowest value that I found was around 0.15, for Piedmont IB Middle School at the NC State Tournament last year.

I have no idea what one would use this statistic for, but I found it interesting so I thought I would share it :)
Oh, trust me, this is useful (deciding teams, making yourself feel bad when you get crushed by Troy and other teams like CCA at states, etc.)
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Re: Statistical Measure of Event Bombs

Post by y1008083 » February 15th, 2018, 8:42 pm

How do you calculate the critical value?

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Re: Statistical Measure of Event Bombs

Post by Unome » February 16th, 2018, 3:53 am

y1008083 wrote:How do you calculate the critical value?
It's not calculated. It's the proportion of the team score that will be counted to (so 0.5 is essentially asking, how many of the team's worst events contributed to 50% of their points, and then divides that number by the most event result, which is the critical value times team score).
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