Pennsylvania 2019

waffletree
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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Postby waffletree » May 8th, 2019, 5:22 am

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:waffletree - 65

ayyy look who made top 20 :D :D
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Unome
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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Postby Unome » May 8th, 2019, 11:49 am

EastStroudsburg13 wrote:Here are the results from the 2019 PA Prediction Contest! We had a record number of participants this year, with 39 users submitting predictions for both divisions, and 65 users submitting at least one prediction. For these rankings, I have omitted my algorithm, but it is included in the rankings spreadsheet provided at the bottom of this post.

For B Division, scores were pretty high, as while the order of the teams was perhaps surprising, many people guessed 9 of the 10 teams correctly. The big spoiler was Orefield, who was picked by 42 teams and finished at 12th overall. Hershey was the least-picked team that made it, picked by 11 users.

The top 20 of 51 total guesses were as follows:
  1. Anomaly - 46
  2. EastStroudsburg13 - 44
  3. nendawen - 43
  4. jslocum - 42
  5. supernumerary07 - 42
  6. Tailsfan101 - 41
  7. Paypog - 39
  8. Flyingfish - 39
  9. dxu46 - 39
  10. IHateClouds - 39
  11. js18 - 39
  12. sciencekid27 - 39
  13. pb5754[] - 38
  14. sciolyperson1 - 38
  15. Longivitis - 38
  16. NotNewtAnymore - 38
  17. Cow481 - 37
  18. Tendan - 37
  19. hippo9 - 37
  20. ziqingliu - 37
Anomaly's score of 46 out of a possible 50 is likely a prediction contest record, as she had the entire top 10 correct aside from switching Harlan Rowe and Shady Side. Both builderguy135 and Pettywap guessed the correct score for the winning team, but builderguy also had the correct number of medals (unconfirmed if this is the first time someone has gotten both tiebreakers correct).

For C Division, scores were a bit lower, as there were a couple more surprises. Nobody guessed all 10 teams correctly, and only 13 guessed 9 of the 10 teams. The main spoilers were Northwestern Lehigh and North Pocono, which were both picked by 38 people. Garnet Valley was picked by 17 users, but State College Area was only picked by 5.

The top 20 of 51 total guesses were as follows:
  1. NotNewtAnymore - 39
  2. lavarball - 36
  3. sciolyrules107 - 36
  4. Longivitis - 36
  5. zsg11 - 35
  6. Tailsfan - 34
  7. Anomaly - 34
  8. catch-22 - 34
  9. EastStroudsburg13 - 34
  10. 1507* - 33
  11. nendawen - 33
  12. Flyingfish - 33
  13. Froggie - 33
  14. jaggie34 - 33
  15. Unome - 33
  16. pb5754[] - 32
  17. js18 - 32
  18. dxu46 - 32
  19. hippo9 - 32
  20. 21Cabbage - 32
NotNewtAnymore guessed 9 of the top 10, as well as 4 exact placements, to take the top spot. For good measure, they also guessed the score exactly correct (the only one to do so) and they were only one medal off. Only one person (snappybabby) put Harriton and Rustin as their top two, but they had four misses to finish with 25 points. And, in case you were wondering if tiebreakers were important, there was a 10-way tie at 32 points... and 17th through 20th had to be decided by medals, as all of them guessed 7 points off from the actual total of 81. There was a double tie at 33 points, so I chose to use number of top-10 teams selected as the third tiebreaker (sorry, Unome ;) ).

And finally, the top 25 of 64 overall entries were the following!
  1. Anomaly - 80
  2. EastStroudsburg13 - 78
  3. NotNewtAnymore - 77
  4. nendawen - 76
  5. Tailsfan101 - 75
  6. Longivitis - 74
  7. Flyingfish - 72
  8. dxu46 - 71
  9. js18 - 71
  10. sciolyrules107 - 71
  11. pb5754[] - 70
  12. hippo9 - 69
  13. Cow481 - 69
  14. Paypog - 69
  15. Unome - 69
  16. catch-22 - 68
  17. sciolyperson1 - 68
  18. Tendan - 68
  19. lavarball - 68
  20. vehicleguy - 68
  21. 21Cabbage - 67
  22. Here - 67
  23. Selundar - 66
  24. Froggie - 65
  25. waffletree - 65
Anomaly likely becomes just the third user to break the 80-point mark, after Jonboyage and xandra last year! Jonboyage maintains the record of 81 points. The top submitter to only predict one division, jslocum, finished at 39th overall with his 42 points. A shoutout goes to Pettywap for having the lowest combined Tiebreaker 1 score; their predictions of 92 points in B and 74 points in C resulted in a total difference of just 7 points, narrowly beating out Tailsfan's 8. sciolyperson1 was the only user to correctly guess the amount of medals in both divisions.

Here are the overall rankings in a viewable spreadsheet so you can see how you were scored. If you don't remember what you predicted and are curious, feel free to shoot me a PM or find me on IRC. Thanks for your participation and for another great year in PA SO!

It's very interesting that B scores are higher than C scores all around, since it's almost always the opposite.

Given the massive ties, maybe it's worth expanding to top 15 or something.
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Anomaly
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Re: Pennsylvania 2019

Postby Anomaly » May 8th, 2019, 3:29 pm

oh lol. i won. that was unexpected. (woo close to perfect B predictions tho)
Orefield MS SO 2015-2018, Parkland HS SO 2019
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State: 5
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