Prediction Contest 2023

[bernard]

Prediction Contest is now open at scioly.org/nationals! Predict which teams you think will win each event and overall, but cast your votes carefully as you can only list each team a certain number of times! Submissions will be accepted until Friday, May 19, 2023, at 11:59 PM PDT.

The forms for individual contests are processed individually so rather than filling out all four at once, complete and submit each separately. The forms also try to check that you're following rules; e.g. if you list any team more than three times in event predictions, it'll try to prevent you from submitting. However, as the checker sometimes glitches, please also manually verify your responses before submitting so that they may be considered.

Disclaimer: The Prediction Contest is run by Scioly.org and is not affiliated with Science Olympiad or the 2023 National Tournament. This event is for entertainment purposes only and there are no material prizes.

[bernard]

Prediction Contest results as well as a summary of submissions have been posted to scioly.org/fantasy. Congrats to our top predictors!

Division B - Events Contest: jaguarhunter (also won this category in last year's contest)
Division B - Top Teams Contest: danxmemes
Division C - Events Contest: legendaryalchemist (also won this category in last year's contest)
Division C - Top Teams Contest: IwentSupernova

[pumptato-cat]

Thoughts on results, guys? I definitely wasn't expecting Troy to place 4th, or Stevenson 1st. The medal distribution for Div C was very interesting--some teams who placed high did not medal as much as I expected(an extreme example would be Enloe with 2 medals in 10th place). Many weaker teams(I say this objectively and without intending offense) medaled, and while watching awards, I noticed that very few teams showed clear domination in medals.
Note that I am not familiar with nationals as I have never gone, so I may be missing something obvious or misinterpreting the results.

[bagman78]

Personally, I think it's nice the see the medals being spread out a bit more among different teams. Especially in the C division.

[Unome]

It's actually a deviation in trend for Div B, I think. In recent years B has trended lower in scores at the top. It's a loose trend for sure though, and as you can see on the medal sheet, in both divisions approximately half of teams won one or more medals.

[Umaroth]

While I do like more teams medalling, in many tournaments, a wide spread of medals typically indicates worse quality tests. Higher randomness created by tests that are not as well-written. It's quite ridiculous to have the top four teams in Div B have an average of 21st place in Fast Facts, which even with weird categories should provide safe scores for top teams. I think the higher spread is indicative of a return to lower Nats test and grading quality, which is a shame.

[knightmoves]

While I do like more teams medalling, in many tournaments, a wide spread of medals typically indicates worse quality tests. Higher randomness created by tests that are not as well-written. It's quite ridiculous to have the top four teams in Div B have an average of 21st place in Fast Facts, which even with weird categories should provide safe scores for top teams. I think the higher spread is indicative of a return to lower Nats test and grading quality, which is a shame.

Fast Facts is a trivia test. It is almost the definition of randomness. If anything, having the test categories not be things that the well-drilled teams learned lists of is a strength, and not a "worse-quality test". And your claim of "ridiculous" is overstated. Daniel Wright (3rd overall) placed 9th in FF. The teams in overall places 5, 6, 7, and 8 placed 1, 3, 4, and 6 in FF.

Sure, FF is one of the events that correlates least with overall rank, but it's a trivia test rather than something that tests the sort of transferable skills and abilities that lead to success in other events. It's also not the worst correlation with overall placing: Roller Coaster and WIDI have the honor this year of correlating least with overall placement, and Wheeled Vehicle and Crimebusters were almost as "bad". But nothing really looks out of line. Storm the Castle correlated with overall placing much more strongly than Roller Coaster did. I don't think there's any meaning in that. Both events require an accurate and repeatable build in order to reliably score well. Both events require some understanding of energy and mechanics. You might think, in fact, that they were quite similar in terms of the sort of skills that a team needs in order to do well, but the results suggest very little correlation between those two events.

[pumptato-cat]

I will add that for Wheeled Vehicle and Roller Coaster were run improperly(I say this without intending offense). For WV, apparently on one of the tracks there was a bump that caused vehicles to bounce. For RC, the floor was not level.

[bagman78]

23 events x 6 medals/event = 138 total medals.
In Div B, Teams that finished in the lower half (31-60) won 3 medals;
Teams that finished 21-30 won 12 medals. Teams that finished 11-20 won 33 medals.
The top 10 teams took 90 medals.

[knightmoves]

I will add that for Wheeled Vehicle and Roller Coaster were run improperly(I say this without intending offense). For WV, apparently on one of the tracks there was a bump that caused vehicles to bounce. For RC, the floor was not level.

I don't think anything in the Roller Coaster rules promises a level surface, does it? The rules allow and expect students to shim their devices to achieve level.

I can see that people would want a flat, level surface, but I don't see that anyone was promised it.